H108 tourist arrivals released by the Ministry of Tourism (Sectur) indicate that tourist arrivals into thecountry in the first half of the year posted moderate growth. Total tourist arrivals were 11.4mn, up fromH107, when arrivals totalled 10.96mn, representing growth of 4.6% y-o-y. Of these arrivals, the greatestnumber was received in June, at 1.9mn, which may reflect the beginning of the summer holiday season inEurope and bodes well for July and August arrival figures.
Border tourists (defined as those who cross the border for one night before returning) are increasing as aproportion of tourists, totalling 4.3mn in H108. We are encouraged that this represents strong traffic fromthe US, although many of these tourists may be Mexican nationals returning to visit families. However,we now believe that the economic slowdown in the US may prove beneficial for border tourism, althoughit will still weight on more expensive package tours to other parts of Mexico. With the economy slowing,more US residents may chose to visit Mexico, particularly those keen to take advantage of cheaper pricessouth of the border.
Security Situation Worsens
Despite hopes that the 18-month deployment of 30,000 Mexican troops across the country would improvethe country’s dire security situation, if anything, the violence appears to be increasing. There had been aminor improvement in late 2007, but this appears to have been temporary. Instead, the well-establisheddrug cartels are fighting back strongly, particularly around the border area, where several gangs arecoming into conflict both with each other and with the security forces. In the first eight months of theyear, 2,700 people were murdered and 300 killed, according to official figures. While cross-bordertourism has held up, despite the rising violence, more worrying was the September killing of severalpeople in the Yucatan peninsula. Given that this region had previously had a relatively low level ofviolence and that its Caribbean location made it a major tourist destination, any indications that crime ison the rise there may act to deter tourism.
Private Investment On Track
In mid 2008 Tourism Secretary Rodolfo Elizondo announced that Mexico was on track to meet its sixyeargoal of achieving US$20bn in private investment into the tourism industry by 2012, the end ofPresident Felipe Calderón’s term in office. Elizondo noted that in the first 16 months of Calderón’sadministration, private investment into the tourist industry totalled US$6.27bn, or 31% of the six-yeargoal. Of this, US$2.8bn was received during the first four months of 2008 - an encouraging indicationthat investment in the industry is holding up strongly, despite the economic slowdown in the US andMexico. Of the private investment to date, 55% came from national capital, while the remainder camefrom foreign investors, primarily Spain and the US.
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