This report compares and contrasts Near Field Communication (NFC), and particularly RFID enabled mobile phones, with contactless smart cards and tickets. The emphasis is on how they are forms of RFID with advantages and disadvantages and different development paths. We come to the surprising conclusion that there will continue to be rapid growth in sales of all three alternatives for at least ten years. This follows 800 million Chinese acquiring contactless national ID cards in four years and 47 million Japanese adopting RFID enabled, NFC compatible phones in three years. These were two of the fastest rollouts of electronic products in human history.
Near Field Communication (NFC), by which electronic devices communicate if held within a few centimeters of each other, is underpinned by global ISO specifications. It has attracted the attention of the largest telcos, transport companies, banks and others and new trials are frequently announced all over the world. However, it has yet to take off, despite phones with the Sony Felica interface, compatible with NFC, being placed in the hands of 50 million Japanese in little more than two years - one of the fastest adoption rates for electronics ever. The many trials confirm that we are all like the Japanese in seeking the convenience that such phones can offer. So why the delay? Why do more and more trials?
With NFC phones, the telcos have nearly all the power and they have often failed to seek a mutuality of benefit with others in the value chain. That has meant that very few NFC enabled phones have been made available, banks are cautious about letting their cards be mimicked by the phones and transport operators are cautious about the ticketing option being loaded. As in retail RFID, they can cite technical problems for delay because telcos prefer NFC to be loaded on the SIM and that standard is not quite ready. There are also issues such as the capacity of the SIM cards.
It will all be resolved in due course. The wealth of value added services in prospect for the telcos will see to that but, as with retail RFID, the speed of progress will depend on how much mutuality of benefit is allowed to emerge. At least there is a role model of success. The telco NTT DoCoMo is behind the early success of the Japanese phones now commonly used for shop purchases and ticketing. It struck realistic deals, including emulating the Suica stored value card held by 22 million people.
Major new report
In this major new report IDTechEx explores the many new technologies coming along such as printed transistor circuits replacing the chip in tickets and later cards, with up to 90% cost reduction emerging and a huge increase in sales resulting from that. A large number of contactless card and ticket schemes and their suppliers across the world are analysed and the lessons of success and failure are revealed. IDTechEx explains why a $4 billion business in contactless cards and tickets and their systems will emerge in 2018 and details the elements of that business. Ten year forecasts are given for all these devices and systems.
New IDTechEx forecasts
IDTechEx forecasts that, while the yearly number of mobile phones sold rises from one to two billion in the next few years, the number of RFID enabled phones sold will rise from 134 million in 2008 to 860 million in 2018. East Asians will continue to show the way, not because of differences in consumer wants but because their governments and industry make sure the inter-industry haggling stops and projects that benefit the nation go ahead. For example, IDTechEx sees the following numbers of RFID enabled phones sold in 2013.
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