The Serbian pharmaceutical market is extremely under-developed in European terms. The market actually contracted in the aftermath of the June 2006 dissolution of the State of Union of Serbia and Montenegro, with prices continuously revised, mostly downwards. However, renewed national confidence following independence is likely to promote economic development. In 2005, prescription medicines accounted for 86% of the Serbian market, with generics representing approximately one third of the market in value terms.

BMI expects the market to exceed US$610mn in 2010, up from US$437mn in 2005. Generics will continue to make gains in terms of both value and volume. The penetration of branded medicines will be improved by gradual alignment of the local intellectual property (IP) environment with international standards, stimulated by the country's desire to join the European Union (EU). However, poor economic performance and the fragile political climate will remain obstacles to higher levels of foreign direct investment (FDI), although the country has become an attractive location for clinical trials.

In regional terms, BMI's adjusted Business Environment Rankings countries places Serbia 14th out of 14 Central and Eastern European (CEE) states surveyed. The country lags behind a number of other markets in the region, not just the more advanced markets such as Hungary, but also its more immediate neighbours, such as Croatia. From the point of view of research-based multinationals, negative factors include the strong local generics manufacturing sector, widespread deficiencies within the country's regulatory infrastructure, and the existence of a sizeable counterfeit industry. Rising customs duties and high inflation will continue to place downward pressure on pharmaceutical margins and revenues.

Local pharmaceutical producers meet the bulk of the country's demand for pharmaceuticals. Multinationals mostly deal in imported medicines, although in recent months, foreign companies increased their involvement in the market with acquisitions of domestic players. The trend is likely to continue at a modest pace, boosted by privatisation initiatives but also dependent on wider economic and political environment. However, threatening the 'basic fabric' of the industry, Serbia's pharmaceutical companies are unlikely to meet the 2009 deadline to adopt European standards of good manufacturing practice (GMP) because of the scale of reconstruction involved and the estimated costs of at least US$125mn.

Key Benefits of Report

Rely On Our Independent 5-Year Forecasts As A Benchmark
to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning.

Target Business Opportunities & Risks
through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments

Exploit Latest Competitive Intelligence & Company SWOTS
on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multinational and national companies.

Additional Information

Scope of Report

Executive Summary & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's Economic and Business Environment SWOTS, give a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Outline of market characteristics, growth factors, leading therapeutic segments and a competitivness of the market.

Regulatory Regime

Guide to and analysis of country intellectual property developments and pricing & reimbursement issues, which constitute the regulatory make-up of the market.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D and patent legislation.

BMI 5-Year Industry Forecast

5-Year Forecasts to end-2010 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Drug market expenditure (US$bn); drug expenditure per capita (US$); as % of gdp

Prescription drug market (US$bn)/as % of total market; sales by alimentary tract/metabolism; antibiotics, cardiovascular, central nervous system, oncology, musculoskeletal and respiratory system

OTC market (US$bn)/as % of total market (sales by analgesic, cough and cold, digestives, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals)

Generics market (US$bn)/ as % of total market

Health expenditure (US$bn, % of gdp and per capita); public sector health expenditure as % of total; number of hospitals; beds, hospital admissions, doctors, births and deaths per 000 population Forecasts based on bespoke BMI economic modelling, using

historical data sets of macroeconomic and industry variables to derive rigorous statistical relationships, anchored in advanced linear regression techniques.

BMI 5-Year Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including:
Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt

Competitive Landscape & Profiles

Intelligence on the market position of major MNC power houses and indigenous companies. BMI profiles key research-based companies. Company SWOTS are provided for all key strategic players, complete with a company activity overview, its leading products and analysis of business opportunities.

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