Countries covered: United States
In spite of numerous negative drivers, family and casual restaurants experienced growth of 5-6% from 2001-2003. Negative drivers included higher unemployment, slower economic growth, increased dieting, increased competition from limited-service restaurants (LSRs), and decreased tourism and business travel.
The resilience of the industry is attributed to the scarcity of time for cooking available to many households and the desire to indulge in a fun, social outing driving a cultural trend towards eating more meals out in general. The question is not whether FSR chains will continue to grow, but which types of chains will show growth.
Not all sectors of the market are performing equally, as family/midscale restaurants show only limited growth. This appears to be due to shifting availability of disposable income, with higher-income households favoring casual restaurants, while traditional middle-class households are more likely to trade down to quick-service restaurants (QSRs). Increased interest in adventurous and gourmet cuisine is likely to impact theme restaurants negatively in the future, as the menus and prices of these casual chains most resemble family/midscale restaurants.
Ethnic restaurant chains showed dramatic growth from 1998-2000, but growth slowed in the later years of the review period. The slower growth is because the primary ethnic casual cuisine is Mexican, an arena where competition from fast-casual chains is aggressive. Fast-casual chains from numerous other ethnic cuisines are expected to proliferate through the rest of the decade, putting increasing pressure on fast-casual ethnic cuisine.
The casual chains in the best position to see strong long-term growth are casual and fine dining bar/grills, steak houses, and Italian restaurants. A number of factors will contribute to rapid growth among successful chains, including the following:
· Diverse menus that cater to all types of diners, with indulgent options for carefree diners, comfort foods for traditional diners, health- and diet-oriented items for diet-conscious diners, and bold, ethnic-inspired dishes for the adventurous.
· Successful chains will be higher-ticket chains that pay heed to the importance of décor for those dining in, while simultaneously offering rapid takeout or delivery as an alternative to the dine-in experience.
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