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Where Next for Thrombosis?

mediKOL Ltd.
August 1, 2009
SKU: MDK2441469

Abstract Table of Contents Search inside this report Related Reports

The thrombosis market is poised to change dramatically. A number of hotly anticipated new oral therapies are set to enter the market with the potential to radically change the landscape. But how will it evolve? What are the future scenarios? With so many drugs in development, will it turn into another large cardiovascular ‘me-too’ market? Or, will one drug dominate? Can warfarin be replaced? As one KOL put it, “It’s all about stroke prevention in AF patients and replacing the elusive warfarin”...

This report provides….

An in-depth and insightful appraisal of the current and future thrombosis market, driven principally by the opinions of the leading KOLs, who mediKOL actively challenged on the key issues in the field.
Three future market scenarios illustrating how the thrombosis market might evolve based on future clinical and regulatory events, and underpinned by our KOL discussions.
Individual product and market forecasts compared and contrasted with ‘consensus’ forecasts supplied under licence from EvaluatePharma®.
The views and opinions from the leading specialists in the thrombosis field on the current and future clinical environment, distilled, analysed and presented in clear and concise commercial terms.
A discussion of the key commercial issues relevant to the development of anti-coagulants for thromboembolic indications.

Introduction: Overview; KOL Policy; Methodology
Executive Summary
Five essential slides that provide a summary of the key findings and conclusions from the report together with an overview of how the market might evolve over the next 10 years.: Thrombosis Overview; Epidemiology; Diagnosis; Treatment; Current Market; The mediKOL View
Commercial Outlook and Market Scenarios: Key commercial section of the document. In this section we present, analyse and discuss the current and future thrombosis market in the context of three different future market scenarios and the key events driving each. Within each scenario we predict future product positioning together with product and market forecasts.; Current product positioning; Graphic + text analysing current thromboembolism product positioning across the three main indications; VTE, SPAF & ACS.; Future product positioning; Graphic + text analysing future thromboembolism product positioning across the three main indications; VTE, SPAF & ACS.; Market scenario overview; Description of three future thromboembolism scenarios and the key events driving each world.; Summary analysis of future possible pricing scenarios.; The mediKOL View; mediKOL’s summary analysis of the commercial outlook and market scenarios.
Thrombosis Market Capsule
This section contains a commercially focused analysis of the thromboembolism market discussing the key indications, their epidemiology, diagnosis and treatment together with historical charts illustrating the overall market size.: Thrombosis overview; Graphic + text situational analysis of current thrombosis market.; Epidemiology; Data and analysis discussing the epidemiology of the three main indications; VTE, SPAF & ACS.; Venous thromboembolism (VTE); Commercially focused overview of the VTE indication.; Stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (SPAF); Commercially focused overview of the SPAF indication.; Acute coronary syndromes (ACS); Commercially focused overview of the ACS indication.; Diagnosis; Discussion of key diagnostic trends in VTE, SPAF & ACS.; Treatment; Table summarising key drugs and principal indications.; The current market; Sales chart + analysis of thrombosis market 2005 - 2009.; The mediKOL View; mediKOL’s summary analysis of the commercial outlook and market scenarios.
Thrombosis Market Landscape
In-depth commercial analysis of the current thrombosis market landscape. We discuss the core product classes, the market evolution and the key products in the market. For each product we provide a situational analysis, analysis of key indications, product positioning, consensus forecasts and scenario-based product forecasts. We also provide an in-depth discussion of the product’s commercial future together with selected KOL commentary.: The thrombosis market; Graphic + text situational analysis of current thrombosis market.; Core product classes; Summary analysis of principal product classes in thromboembolism market: anti-platelets; anti-coagulants; fibrinolytics; Market development timeline; Graphic illustrating development of thrombosis market 1960 to 2009.; Key product summary; Tabular summary of key product attributes: product class; marketing company; launch date; dosing profile; global sales; Drug therapy; Enoxaparin; Warfarin; Fondaparinux; Bivalirudin; The mediKOL View; Commercially based consolidation analysis of thrombosis market landscape
The Anti-coagulant Market
Commercially focused analysis of the key anti-coagulant market and how it might evolve. In this section we quantify the anti-coagulant market and discuss the key products, the clotting cascade and the impact the key products have on it, product positing analysis, overview of key R&D products and a market development timeline. We also discuss the commercially important atrial fibrillation indication and analyse why it is key to the commercial success of any emerging anti-coagulant. Finally, a quantitative treated patient analysis illustrates how the different patient populations are treated and how this might change within each scenario.: The anti-coagulant market; Product class sales and market share forecasts; Sales chart + analysis of thrombosis market 2005 - 2009; Key product summary; Tabular summary of key product attributes highlighting anti-coagulants: product class; marketing company; launch date; dosing profile; global sales; Drugs and the clotting cascade; Illustration of clotting cascade; Illustration of clotting cascade + sites of action of key anti-coagulants; Product positioning; Graphic illustration of current thromboembolism product positioning across the three main indications; VTE, SPAF & ACS.; R&D product summary; Tabular summary of key anti-coagulant R&D products: drug; generic; company; status; mechanism of action; estimated launch date; lead indication; dosing profile; Market development timeline; Graphic illustration of future development of anti-coagulant market 2008 - 2016; Atrial fibrillation; AF overview; Epidemiology; Patient risk stratification (CHADS2); Aspirin or warfarin?; Treated patient analysis; The mediKOL View; Commercially based consolidation analysis of the anti-coagulant and atrial fibrillation market landscapes
The Anti-coagulant Market - Key Commercial Issues
One of the key sections of the report. These slides discuss and analyse some of the main commercial issues facing any anti-coagulant in development as identified by mediKOL and our panel of KOLs.: Which indication first?; Analysis + KOL commentary discussing the clinical and commercial rationale behind developing a product for VTE, SPAF & ACS; Warfarin as a comparator; Analysis + KOL commentary discussing the key issues associated with using warfarin as a comparator in SPAF clinical trials; Pricing scenarios - chronic versus acute; Analysis + KOL commentary discussing the key issues associated with pricing a new oral anti-coagulant for multiple indications - both chronic and acute; Discussion of the pros and cons of four different potential pricing strategies; Generic enoxaparin; Discussion of the how generic enoxaparin might impact the VTE market if it is launched alongside oral anti-coagulants - dabigatran and rivaroxaban are currently deemed cost effective compared to branded enoxaparin - how might generic enoxaparin impact this?; Benefits of an aspirin trial; Only one company is conducting a large phase III aspirin trial in AF patients, one other may follow. This analysis discusses the benefits of an aspirin trial.; New product uptake; Analysis + KOL commentary discussing how new oral-anticoagulants might be adopted into the anti-coagulant / AF market; Dismantling of the warfarin infrastructure; Analysis + KOL commentary discussing the fact that the warfarin infrastructure will be required for some time to come
The Future Anti-coagulant Market
The core section of the report providing a detailed commercially focused analysis of the key future anti-coagulants and their performance in the market. For each product we provide; situational analysis, analysis of key indications, product positioning, key clinical information and a graphic illustrating the clinical development timeline of all phase II / III trials. We also present a commercially focused analysis and KOL commentary on each product’s potential in the VTE, SPAF & ACS indications together with consensus and individual scenario forecasts for each product to 2018.: Timeline of first approvals; Illustration showing key R&D anti-coagulants and a relative timeline of the key phase III trials for first approval (mostly VTE trials); Key SPAF trial timeline; Illustration showing key R&D anti-coagulants and a relative timeline of key phase III trials in stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation; Key ACS trial timeline; Illustration showing key R&D anti-coagulants and a relative timeline of key phase III trials in acute coronary syndromes; Dabigatran; Historic sales chart and product situational analysis; Key indications and product positioning analysis; Table summarising the key phase III programme for all trials including: trial name, indication, phase, comparator, # of patients, duration, estimated end date, primary outcome measure; Graphic illustrating all key phase II and III clinical trials on a relative timeline; Commercially focused analysis + KOL commentary on product’s potential in VTE, SPAF & ACS indications; Consensus and individual scenario forecasts for dabigatran to 2018; Rivaroxaban; Historic sales chart and product situational analysis; Key indications and product positioning analysis; Table summarising the key phase III programme for all trials including: trial name, indication, phase, comparator, # of patients, duration, estimated end date, primary outcome measure; Graphic illustrating all key phase II and III clinical trials on a relative timeline; Commercially focused analysis + KOL commentary on product’s potential in VTE, SPAF & ACS indications; Consensus and individual scenario forecasts for rivaroxaban to 2018; Apixaban; Key indications and product positioning analysis; Table summarising the key phase III programme for all trials including: trial name, indication, phase, comparator, # of patients, duration, estimated end date, primary outcome measure; Graphic illustrating all key phase II and III clinical trials on a relative timeline; Commercially focused analysis + KOL commentary on product’s potential in VTE, SPAF & ACS indications; Consensus and individual scenario forecasts for apixaban to 2018; Edoxaban; Key indications and product positioning analysis; Table summarising the key phase III programme for all trials including: trial name, indication, phase, comparator, # of patients, duration, estimated end date, primary outcome measure; Graphic illustrating all key phase II and III clinical trials on a relative timeline; Commercially focused analysis + KOL commentary on product’s potential in VTE, SPAF & ACS indications; Consensus and individual scenario forecasts for edoxaban to 2018; YM150; Key indications and product positioning analysis; Table summarising the key phase III programme for all trials including: trial name, indication, phase, comparator, # of patients, duration, estimated end date, primary outcome measure; Graphic illustrating all key phase II and III clinical trials on a relative timeline; Commercially focused analysis + KOL commentary on product’s potential in VTE, SPAF & ACS indications; Consensus and individual scenario forecasts for YM150 to 2018; Betrixaban; Table summarising the key phase III programme for all trials including: trial name, indication, phase, comparator, # of patients, duration, estimated end date, primary outcome measure; Graphic illustrating all key phase II and III clinical trials on a relative timeline; Commercially focused analysis + KOL commentary on product’s potential in VTE, SPAF & ACS indications; Consensus and individual scenario forecasts for betrixaban to 2018; AZD0837; Table summarising the key phase III programme for all trials including: trial name, indication, phase, comparator, # of patients,; duration, estimated end date, primary outcome measure; Graphic illustrating all key phase II and III clinical trials on a relative timeline; Commercially focused analysis + KOL commentary on product’s potential in VTE, SPAF & ACS indications; Consensus and individual scenario forecasts for AZD0837 to 2018; Tecarfarin; Table summarising the key phase III programme for all trials including: trial name, indication, phase, comparator, # of patients, duration, estimated end date, primary outcome measure; Graphic illustrating all key phase II and III clinical trials on a relative timeline; Key indications and product positioning analysis; Commercially focused analysis + KOL commentary on product’s potential in VTE, SPAF & ACS indications; TAK-442; Table summarising the key phase III programme for all trials including: trial name, indication, phase, comparator, # of patients, duration, estimated end date, primary outcome measure; Graphic illustrating all key phase II and III clinical trials on a relative timeline; Commercially focused analysis + KOL commentary on product’s potential in VTE, SPAF & ACS indications; Idrabiotaparinux; Table summarising the key phase III programme for all trials including: trial name, indication, phase, comparator, # of patients, duration, estimated end date, primary outcome measure; Graphic illustrating all key phase II and III clinical trials on a relative timeline; Commercially focused analysis + KOL commentary on product’s potential in VTE, SPAF & ACS indications; The mediKOL View; Commercially focused consolidation analysis of mediKOL’s thoughts on the future anti-coagulant market
Conclusions
Contains the key conclusions from the report and forecasts for the global thrombosis market under each scenario to 2018.: Key conclusions; Global thrombosis market forecasts for each scenario (1, 2 & 3) to 2018

Where Next for Thrombosis?

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