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Breakfast Cereals - Germany

Published by: Mintel International Group Ltd.

Published: Feb. 1, 2004 - 61 Pages


Table of Contents


Introduction



Definitions

Abbreviations



Executive Summary



Breakfast remains important, though not to all young adults

Shift to smaller households can dent market

Consumers get pickier

Increasing interest in healthy eating, 'wellness' and organics

Discounters' entry hits sales

Kellogg is still market leader, despite some loss of share to own-label

Adult lines, cross-boundary extensions, and luxury muesli on the rise

The potential for growth is still marked



Market Drivers



Consumers spending less time at breakfast

Changing eating habits have mixed effects

Shift to smaller households also offers opportunities

Figure 1: Trends in numbers of German households, by size, 1998-2002

Figure 2: Trends in one-person households in Germany, 1995-2002

Falling birth-rate increases competition for the younger consumer

Figure 3: Trends in child population in Germany, by age, 1998-2002

Older Germans slow to adopt new eating habits

Figure 4: Trends in adult population in Germany, by age, 1998-2002

Figure 5: Frequency of eating muesli and oatflakes, 1997-2003

Figure 6: Frequency of consuming corn flakes and crunchy cereals, 1997-2003

Interest in healthy eating can support market...

...and products sell well under the 'wellness' banner...

...while organic provenance too is a successful selling point

Economic climate dents consumer confidence

Figure 7: Trends in German PDI and consumer expenditure, at current and constant prices, 1998-2003

Figure 8: Price vs brand awareness, 2003



Market Size and Trends



Figure 9: German retail value sales of breakfast cereals, at current and constant prices, 1998-2003

Figure 10: Indexed retail sales of breakfast cereals, by country, 1998-2003

Traditional cereals grow, while muesli and oats decline

Figure 11: German retail value sales of breakfast cereals, by type, 1999-2003

Better volume than value performance

Figure 12: German retail volume sales of breakfast cereals, 1998-2003

Figure 13: German retail volume sales of breakfast cereals, by major type, 1999-2003

Figure 14: Average price paid for cereals in Germany, by type, 1999-2003



Market Segmentation



Traditional cereals

Figure 15: Germany retail value sales of RTE traditional breakfast cereals, by type, 2001-03

Targeting adults

Figure 16: Importance of children's cereals to the RTE sector, by country, 2003

Muesli

Figure 17: German retail value sales of RTE muesli, by type, 2001-03



Distribution



Figure 18: German retail value sales of RTE traditional breakfast cereals, by outlet, 2001-03

Figure 19: German retail value sales of RTE muesli, by outlet, 2001-03

Trading base

Figure 20: Numbers of food retail outlets in Germany, 1995, 2000 and 2002

Figure 21: Major food and daily goods retailers, 2002-03



The Supply Structure



Manufacturers' shares

Figure 22: Manufacturers' value shares in the breakfast cereals market, 2001-03

RTE traditional cereals

Figure 23: Manufacturers' value shares in RTE traditional cereals, 2001-03

Muesli

Figure 24: Manufacturers' value shares in RTE muesli, 2001-03

Oats

Figure 25: Manufacturers' value shares in oats, 2001-03

Figure 26: Manufacturers vs own-label share of breakfast cereals, by type, 2003

Companies and brands

Kellogg Deutschland GmbH

Peter Kölln KGaA

Dr August Oetker Nahrungsmittel KG

Cereal Partners

Seitenbacher Naturkost GmbH

H&J Brüggen KG

Others



New Product Development



New product launches



The Consumer



Figure 27: Consumption of breakfast cereals, by country, 2003

Consumption of cereals in Germany

Figure 28: Penetration and frequency of eating breakfast cereals in Germany, by age and gender, 2003

Figure 29: Penetration and frequency of eating breakfast cereals in Germany, by income and working status, 2003

Figure 30: Penetration and frequency of eating breakfast cereals in Germany, by region, 2003

Figure 31: Penetration and frequency of eating breakfast cereals in Germany, by presence of children and household size, 2003

Brand choice

Figure 32: Attitudes towards diet, all adults vs breakfast cereal consumers, 2003

Figure 33: Attitudes towards shopping, all adults vs breakfast cereals consumers, 2003

Mintel European Food Target Groups

Figure 34: Mintel's European Food Target Groups, by country, 2003

Figure 35: Penetration and frequency of eating breakfast cereal, by German target groups, 2003



Prospects



The potential for growth is still marked

Figure 36: Per capita consumption of breakfast cereals, by country, 2003

East Germany looks promising, as do 2-3-person households

Suppliers need to retain older Germans and attract new consumers

More diversification may help access new consumers

Own-label remains strong



Forecast



A distinct market

Figure 37: Forecast for retail sales of breakfast cereals, 2003-07

Volume sales to continue rising

Discounting to draw to an end

Better economic conditions to assist









Abstract

Germany- time spent at the breakfast table is diminishing in Germany, however an interesting phenomenon has been developing - in large households individuals are tending to choose their own meals and eat alone. The opportunity is for a broad range of products and shift towards smaller packs or single-portions. How had traditional suppliers fared against the strong discount chains such as Aldi offering their own-brand alternatives? How can you capitalise upon the trends for adult lines, cross boundary extensions and luxury muesli?



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