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Respiratory Syncytial Virus: Can Antivirals Make the Grade?Published by: Datamonitor Published: Mar. 15, 2004 - 54 Pages Table of ContentsTABLE OF CONTENTS ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE 2 About the Infectious Disease pharmaceutical analysis team 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7 Introduction 7 Scope and coverage of the Brief 7 Key findings about the topic 7 Despite high disease incidence and associated mortality, there are currently very few products indicated for the prevention or treatment of respiratory syncitial virus. The high potential of this sector is demonstrated by the strong performance of MedImmune’s Synagis, which achieved sales of almost $600m across the 7 major markets in the year ending June 2003 (MIDAS Sales Data, IMS Health, September 2003). Datamonitor believes that the highest potential in this sector lies in prophylaxis, rather than antiviral treatment, with both the monoclonal antibody and vaccine sectors forecast to achieve peak sales greater than $1 billion; 8 Datamonitor believes that an effective RSV antiviral, positioned as a treatment for severely ill hospitalized patients, could potentially generate peak sales of $300m across the seven major markets. However, as with other acute viral infections, such as influenza, the potential for RSV antivirals in the community sector will be restricted by low presentation rates and poor availability of diagnostic tests. Companies seeking success in this field will benefit from seeking partnerships with diagnostics companies and those marketing other RTIs antivirals in order to provide physicians with a complete treatment package; 9 With adequate stakeholder support and appropriate pricing, Datamonitor believes that the pediatric RSV market could achieve mature market sales of approximately $800m, with an additional $2 billion in revenue available from the catch-up patient pool. In contrast, poor vaccine compliance within the elderly population will limit both uptake and price of products targeting this sector. Success in this field will depend on effective disease awareness campaigns and innovative product designs, such as combination products targeting multiple RTIs. 10 ETIOLOGY AND EPIDEMIOLOGY 12 Disease definition 12 Diagnosis 13 Epidemiology 14 US studies 14 Developing world 16 TREATMENT AND PROPHYLAXIS OVERVIEW 17 Current treatment options 17 Virazole 17 Overview 17 Sales performance 18 Strategic recommendations 19 Current prophylactic options 20 RespiGam 20 Overview 20 Sales performance 21 Synagis 22 Overview 22 Sales performance 23 Strategic recommendations 24 Current market overview 25 Market size 25 Developmental treatment and prophylactic options 29 AventisPasteur’s RSV vaccine 29 Numax 30 FUTURE FOCUS AND ANALYST INSIGHT 31 Future market assessment 31 Therapeutic options 31 Patient potential 32 Coverage 33 Pricing 34 Market potential 34 Monoclonal antibodies 37 Patient potential and price 38 Compliance 38 Market potential 38 Vaccines 39 Patient potential 40 Compliance 41 Pricing 43 Market potential 44 Geriatric vaccine 48 APPENDIX 52 Bibliography 52 Journal articles 52 Websites 52 Research methodology 53 Disclaimer 54 AbstractIntroductionRespiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is the leading cause of viral death and respiratory tract infection (RTI) in children, and furthermore is a significant cause of morbidity in the elderly population. At present there is no effective vaccine or treatment against RSV infection, thereby constituting a considerable unmet medical need. Scope Overview of the etiology and epidemiology of RSV infection, discussing the scale and seriousness of this disease Analysis of current treatment and prophylactic practices, highlighting current unmet needs in this sector Key RSV pipeline products are listed, with discussion of those in clinical development An assessment of the commercial prospects for novel RSV products, describing likely sales scenarios and an estimation of peak annual revenue Report Highlights The commercial potential of the RSV sector is demonstrated by Synagis, which achieved global sales of almost $600m in the year ending June 2003. Indeed, Datamonitor believes that the highest potential in this sector lies in prophylaxis, with both the monoclonal antibody and vaccine sectors forecast to achieve peak sales greater than $1 billion. An RSV antiviral positioned as a treatment for hospitalized patients could make peak sales of $300m across the seven major markets, but sales will be restricted in the community by low rates of presentation and diagnosis. Consequently, marketing companies may benefit from partnerships with diagnostics firms and those selling other RTIs antivirals. The pediatric RSV market could achieve mature market sales of around $800m, with an extra $4 billion in revenue from the catch-up pool. In contrast, poor vaccine compliance within the elderly population will limit revenue in this sector. Success in this field will depend on effective disease awareness campaigns and innovative product designs. Reasons to Purchase Gain a clear understanding of the dynamics of the current RSV market, most notably the performance of MedImmune's Sunagis Assess the potential for new treatments for RSV and understand the limitations associated with community use of antiviral therapies Evaluate the commercial prospects for new RSV monoclonal and vaccine prophylactics, taking into account stakeholder influences Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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