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Commercial Insight: Antidepressants - Sliding SSRI Revenues InevitablePublished by: Datamonitor Published: Feb. 6, 2004 - 179 Pages Table of ContentsTABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 Scope of the analysis 3 Datamonitor insight into the antidepressant market 4 The antidepressant market is set to undergo a period of rapid change as seven out of the eight leading brands suffer US patent expiries by 2008. With only a handful of new products anticipated to replace these blockbuster products, the market is expected to decrease by -21.5% to $13.5 billion by 2011, as physicians are encouraged to utilize cheaper generics. Brand players must look towards maximizing revenues through product differentiation and innovative lifecycle strategies. 5 Forest’s Lexapro is the only marketed antidepressant expected to achieve a positive CAGR over the full forecast period, 2003-11. Nonetheless, success is reliant on the company’s ability to switch patients from Lexapro’s predecessor, Celexa by convincing physicians of the resulting clinical benefits. The key drivers to initiating this switch are to clearly differentiate the two products and to present Lexapro as a more complete compound. 6 Wyeth’s noradrenergic, Effexor has positioned itself as a relatively unique product in the antidepressant market. However, with Lilly’s Cymbalta demonstrating a similar mode of action and anticipated to launch in mid 2004, Effexor is expected to undergo its first major challenge to its market position. Effexor must consolidate its position by gaining new indications in areas such as neuropathic pain and moving the focus to primary care. 7 Summary 9 Key metrics 9 Key market events during 2002/2003 10 Regulators warn about use of antidepressants in pediatrics 10 Paxil generics launched in the US 11 Lilly announces expected launch of Cymbalta 11 CHAPTER 2 MARKET SEGMENTATION & DEFINITION 20 Strategic scoping and focus 20 Poor diagnosis and treatment 20 Concerns over safety 21 Limited improvements and new chemical entities 23 Lifecycle strategies 24 Market definition 25 The gold standard in major depressive disorder 26 Associated pharmaceutical markets and indications 28 Depression and anxiety 28 Depression and novel non-anxiety indications 29 CHAPTER 3 GLOBAL MARKET OVERVIEW 30 Key findings 30 Global antidepressant market analysis 31 Global market forecast 33 Serotonergic class analysis 34 Serotonergic market performance 34 Serotonergic value and volume analysis 35 Serotonergic market forecast 36 R&D drugs in the serotonergic class 38 Variza 38 Prozac analysis 39 Fluoxetine: 12-month event screen 40 Prozac strategic analysis 41 Prozac forecasts to 2011 44 Paxil analysis 47 Paroxetine: 12-month event screen 48 Paxil strategic analysis 50 Paxil forecasts to 2011 52 Zoloft analysis 54 Sertraline: 12-month event screen 55 Zoloft strategic analysis 56 Zoloft forecasts to 2011 59 Celexa analysis 62 Citalopram: 12-month event screen 63 Celexa strategic analysis 64 Celexa forecasts to 2011 65 Lexapro analysis 67 Escitalopram: 12-month event screen 68 Lexapro strategic analysis 70 Lexapro forecasts to 2011 72 Other recent events in the serotonergic market 74 Serzone 75 Luvox 78 Noradrenergic class analysis 80 Noradrenergic market performance 80 Noradrenergic market forecast 82 R&D drugs in the noradrenergic class 83 Cymbalta 83 Effexor analysis 84 Venlafaxine: 12-month event screen 85 Effexor strategic analysis 86 Effexor forecasts to 2011 89 Remeron analysis 91 Mirtazapine: 12-month event screen 92 Remeron strategic analysis 93 Remeron forecasts to 2011 95 Novel compound class analysis 96 Novel compound market performance 96 Novel compound market forecast 97 R&D drugs in the novel compound class 98 Nemifitide 98 Wellbutrin analysis 100 Bupropion: 12-month event screen 101 Wellbutrin strategic analysis 102 Wellbutrin forecasts to 2011 104 CHAPTER 4 PORTFOLIO AND LIFECYCLE MANAGEMENT 107 Key findings 107 Portfolio management 108 Market attractiveness 108 Comparative attractiveness of the antidepressant market 108 Class attractiveness in the antidepressant market 109 Positioning of the major antidepressant players 111 Portfolio analysis 114 GSK 115 Pfizer 117 Wyeth 118 Forest 119 Lundbeck 119 Organon 121 Lilly 122 BMS 123 Solvay 124 Lifecycle management of antidepressants 125 The antidepressant product lifecycle 125 Launch strategy and market penetration 126 Define and own a market 126 Case study: Forest employs innovative launch strategy yielding success against prominent competition 127 Optimizing peak sales 130 Case study: Lilly and GSK—similar strategies but different outcomes 130 Revenue protection strategies 132 Benchmarks and case studies: GSK joins forces with generic company 133 CHAPTER 5 STRATEGIC PRODUCT POSITIONING 134 Key findings 134 Physician-focused product positioning 135 Physician definition 135 Treatment guidelines 136 Key conference themes 137 Brand positioning for key products in the major markets 138 Benchmarks and case studies 140 Effexor—Remission “Goal of Therapy” 140 Pharmacist role 141 Patient targeting and influence 141 Patient sub-group positioning analysis 141 DTC advertising 143 Brand imaging 144 Product specific websites 144 Prozac—Are you ready? 144 Zoloft—“Help us help you” 146 Paxil—Your life is waiting 148 Company health information websites 148 Company activity with patient advocacy groups 149 Case study: National Phobics Society 150 Patient education initiatives 151 Pricing and reimbursement 152 US 152 EU 152 Health economic considerations 153 Pricing strategies 153 Pricing data for key products in the major markets 154 APPENDIX A - MARKET DATA 155 Global antidepressant market data 155 Serotonergic market data 156 Noradrenergic market data 158 Novel compound market data 159 APPENDIX B 160 List of tables 160 List of figures 162 Bibliography 164 Market segmentation and definition 164 Global market overview 166 Strategic product positioning 169 National Formularies 170 Websites 170 Report methodology 172 About Datamonitor 173 About Datamonitor Healthcare 173 Datamonitor Healthcare’s research and analysis methodologies 174 Datamonitor Healthcare’s therapy area capabilities 174 About the CNS analysis team 175 Datamonitor Healthcare’s Consulting expertise 176 Datamonitor’s Therapeutic Consulting expertise 177 Key therapy team members 177 Lynda Lynch, Director CNS 177 David Abramson, Therapeutic Lead Consultant 178 Disclaimer 179 AbstractIntroductionThe global antidepressant market has seen extraordinary growth over the last decade. However, with few entrants, and a flood of patent expiries by 2009, the dynamics of this $16.9 billion market are set to undergo a major change. As generic competition intensifies, companies need to carefully re-examine their strategies if they wish to protect their market share. Scope In-depth profiles of current market-leading brands, including major event impacting each brand during 2002-2003 Analysis of potential strategies to help maximize and protect revenues Global sales for leading antidepressants in 2001 and 2002, with projections for future performance to 2011 Report Highlights Antidepressant sales are expected to decrease by -21.5% to $13.5 billion by 2011. During the forecast period, 2003-11, the market will experience a period of high volatility as revenues are impacted by consecutive patent expiries and limited product launches. The serotonergic class dominates the market, accounting for 57.6% of market share in 2002. However, all of the leading brands will suffer patent expiries by 2009. As physicians are encouraged to utilize cheaper generics, brand players must look towards maximizing revenues through product differentiation and innovative lifecycle strategies. Wyeth’s noradrenergic, Effexor has positioned itself as a relatively unique product in the antidepressant market. However, with Lilly’s Cymbalta demonstrating a similar mode of action and anticipated to launch in mid 2004, Effexor is expected to undergo its first major challenge to its market position. Reasons to Purchase Assess leading antidepressants and identify key success factors within this sector Understand key market drivers and predict the future performance of key compounds Benchmark pipeline antidepressants against currently marketed products and assess their future market potential Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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