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Commercial Opportunities from an Aging Population: Epidemiology, Market and Pipeline Analysis Across Seven Major Indications

Published by: Business Insights

Published: Feb. 6, 2004 - 216 Pages


Table of Contents



Executive Summary

Quantifying the ‘gray market’ opportunity

Acute ischemic stroke

Alzheimer’s disease

Arthritis

Diabetes

Male sexual dysfunction

Osteoporosis

Prostate cancer



Chapter 1 Quantifying the ‘gray market’

opportunity

Summary

Introduction

Drivers of gray market growth

Demographic trends: an aging population

Healthcare needs increase with age

The prevalence of chronic diseases is significantly higher among seniors

Drugs will be used for longer as life expectancy increases

Seniors’ influence on the prescribing process

Exploiting increased contact between seniors and physicians

Harnessing the power of the web to communicate with seniors

Internet use is already promoting patient-physician interaction

Meeting seniors’ health information needs

Pharmaceutical industry online initiatives targeting seniors – Novartis’

healthandage.com



Chapter 2 Acute ischemic stroke

Summary

Disease overview

Epidemiology

Market analysis: focus on antithrombotics

Activase (alteplase)

Pipeline analysis

Unmet needs in acute therapy

Failure of neuroprotective agents

Are antithrombotics the answer?

Antithrombotics in development for acute ischemic stroke

ReoPro (abciximab)

Retavase (reteplase)



Chapter 3 Alzheimer’s disease

Summary

Disease overview

Epidemiology

Market analysis

Aricept (donepezil)

Exelon (rivastigmine)

Reminyl (galantamine)

Ebixa (memantine)

Late-stage pipeline analysis

Cere (cerebrolysin)

COGNIShunt

NS-2330



Chapter 4 Arthritis

Summary

Disease overview

Epidemiology

Market analysis

Celebrex (celecoxib)

Vioxx (rofecoxib)

Bextra (valdecoxib)

Remicade (infliximab)

Pipeline analysis

Prexige (lumiracoxib)

CDP-870



Chapter 5 Diabetes

Summary

Disease overview

Epidemiology

Market analysis

Class dynamics

Sulfonylureas

Biguanides

Thiazolidinediones

Prandial glucose regulators

Alfa glucosidase inhibitors

Insulins

Monotherapy versus combination therapy

Leading and new products

Avandia (rosiglitazone)

Novolin (insulin)

Humalog (insulin lispro)

Lantus (insulin glargine)

Pipeline analysis

Exubera (inhaled insulin)

AERx insulin Diabetes Management System (inhaled insulin)

Oralin (transoral insulin)

HIM2 (oral insulin)



Chapter 6 Male sexual dysfunction

Summary

Disease overview

Loss of libido

Erectile dysfunction

Priapism

Peyronie’s disease

Premature and delayed ejaculation

Epidemiology

Market analysis

Viagra (sildenafil)

Cialis (tadalafil)

Levitra/Nuviva (vardenafil)

Pipeline analysis

Alibra (alprostadil + prazosin)

Alprox-TD (alprostadil)

Dapoxetine

PNU-83757



Chapter 7 Osteoporosis

Summary

Disease overview

Pathophysiology and etiology

Epidemiology

Methodological difficulties in assessing prevalence

Prevalence of osteoporosis and osteopenia in post-menopausal women

Prevalence of osteoporosis and osteopenia in men

Market analysis

Impact of the Women’s Health Initiative on osteoporosis therapy

Leading and new product sales to 2008

Premarin family (conjugated estrogens)

Fosamax (alendronate)

Actonel (risedronate)

Evista (raloxifene)

Forteo (teriparatide)

Pipeline analysis

Boniva/Bondronat (ibandronate)

Zometa (zoledronate)

Lasofoxifene

Premarin (conjugated estrogens) + bazedoxifene



Chapter 8 Prostate cancer

Summary

Disease overview

Epidemiology

Market analysis

Zoladex (goserelin)

Casodex (bicalutamide)

Lupron (leuprolide)

Pipeline analysis

Plenaxis (abarelix depot)

Atrasentan

Provenge (aberalix depot)

Chapter 9 Appendix

References

Alzheimer’s disease

Male sexual dysfunction

Osteoporosis

Prostate cancer

Index



List of Figures

Figure 1.1: Average annual growth rates of the total population and the population in broad age

groups, by major area, 2000-50 (median variant)

Figure 1.2: The aging female population provides expanding opportunities in women’s health

Figure 1.3: Healthcare spend increases with age

Figure 1.4: Life expectancy at birth is rising

Figure 1.5: Seniors visit physicians more frequently than their younger counterparts

Figure 1.6: The rate of Internet uptake is greatest among seniors

Figure 1.7: Online seniors are approaching physicians with information from the Internet

Figure 1.8: Online seniors are searching for information on age-related diseases

Figure 1.9: Novartis’ www.healthandage.com

Figure 2.10: Incidence of ischemic stroke in the seven major markets, 2002

Figure 3.11: Prevalence of Alzheimer’s disease across the seven major markets, 2002

Figure 6.12: Prevalence of male sexual dysfunction, 2002

Figure 7.13: Prevalence of osteopenia and osteoporosis in the post-menopausal population across

the seven major markets, 2002

Figure 7.14: Prevalence of osteopenia and osteoporosis in men aged 50+, 2002

Figure 8.15: Segmentation of prostate cancer patients among the seven major markets, 2003



List of Tables

Table 2.1: Incidence of ischemic stroke in the seven major markets, 2002

Table 2.2: Antithrombotics in development for acute ischemic stroke, 2003

Table 3.3: Prevalence of Alzheimer’s disease across the seven major markets, 2002

Table 3.4: Leading and new Alzheimer’s disease product sales, 2001-08

Table 3.5: Late stage Alzheimer’s disease pipeline, 2003

Table 4.6: Leading and new arthritis product sales, 2001-08

Table 4.7: Late-stage arthritis pipeline, 2003

Table 5.8: Prevalence of diabetes in the seven major markets, 2002

Table 5.9: Leading and new diabetes product sales, 2001-08

Table 5.10: Non-invasive insulin pipeline, 2003

Table 6.11: Prevalence of male sexual dysfunction, 2002 (000s)

Table 6.12: Prevalence of complete and severe erectile dysfunction in the over 40s, 2002 (000s)

135

Table 6.13: Global forecasts of leading and innovative erectile dysfunction drugs to 2008

Table 6.14: Male sexual dysfunction pipeline, phase II and above, 2003

Table 7.15: Prevalence of osteopenia and osteoporosis in the post-menopausal population across

the seven major markets, 2002

Table 7.16: Prevalence of osteopenia and osteoporosis in men aged 50+, 2002

Table 7.17: Leading and new product sales in the osteoporosis market, 2002-08

Table 7.18: Osteoporosis pipeline, phase II and above, 2003

Table 8.19: Prevalence of prostate cancer in the seven major markets, 2003

Table 8.20: Leading prostate cancer product sales, 2001-08

Table 8.21: Late-stage prostate cancer pipeline, 2003

Abstract

Commercial Opportunities from an Aging Population: Epidemiology market and pipeline analysis across seven major indications, evaluates the benefits of marketing to seniors for the pharmaceutical industry. Globally, the number of older people will increase from 606m in 2000 to 1.9bn in 2050 and as a result healthcare needs will increase and drugs will be used for longer. This report analyzes commercial opportunities within the ‘gray market’ and shows how companies can meet these needs and keep company profits high. Current and future growth prospects are examined for pharmaceutical companies to 2008 in seven major indications particularly associated with seniors. These are acute ischemic stroke, Alzheimer’s disease, arthritis, diabetes, male sexual dysfunction, osteoporosis and prostate cancer. Cumulatively, the total value of these markets was approximately $42bn in 2002 and this figure is set to rise dramatically.

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