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Commercial Insight: Asthma and COPD - Combinations breathe life into the asthma and COPD marketsPublished by: Datamonitor Published: Oct. 31, 2003 - 236 Pages Table of ContentsTABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 Scope of the analysis 3 Datamonitor insight into the asthma/COPD market 4 The asthma/COPD market will increase by 35% to over $18 billion by 2011, largely driven by the success of the combination ICS & LABA class and expanding patent potential, rather than novel drug launches. Sales of Advair are forecast to surpass $5 billion in 2006, but investment by players with traditionally small asthma/COPD portfolios in combination therapies will see GSK becoming vulnerable to competition by the end of the decade. 4 Singulair's approval for allergic rhinitis has coincided perfectly with the advent of OTC antihistamines in the US. DTC promotion of its child-friendly formulations and safety properties, and the lack of significant competition from Allegra and oral pipeline therapies, will ensure that sales of Singulair reach $3 billion by 2007. 7 New product launches, including Spiriva and roflumilast, combined with an aging population and approval of combination ICS & LABA therapies in COPD, will see the market value of smoker’s lung rise to at least $5.5 billion by 2011, with Pfizer emerging as a major player. Given that approximately 50% of the 30 million COPD patients in the seven major markets are undiagnosed, increased awareness coupled with a reduction in lung function deterioration will prove critical to unlocking the true COPD patient potential. 9 Summary 12 Key metrics 13 CHAPTER 2 MARKET SEGMENTATION & DEFINITION 25 Strategic scoping and focus 25 Limited NCEs and growth in combination inhalers 25 Overlap between asthma and allergic rhinitis 25 Increase in asthma prevalence 26 Increase in COPD patients 26 Market definition 28 The gold-standard treatment 29 Asthma 29 COPD 30 Associated pharmaceutical markets 31 CHAPTER 3 GLOBAL MARKET OVERVIEW 32 Key findings 32 Global asthma/COPD market analysis 33 Global market forecast 37 Corticosteroid market performance 40 Top 10 leading corticosteroids 41 Recently launched/R&D drugs in corticosteroid class 43 Asmanex 43 Alvesco 44 Corticosteroid market forecast 45 Flovent analysis 47 Flovent: 12-month event screen 47 Flovent strategic analysis 48 Flovent forecasts to 2011 49 Pulmicort analysis 52 Pulmicort: 12-month event screen 52 Pulmicort strategic analysis 53 Pulmicort forecasts to 2011 55 Beta2-agonist market performance 57 Top 10 leading beta2-agonists 58 R&D drugs in beta2-agonist class 60 Sepracor’s enantiomer formulations 61 Beta2-agonist market forecast 62 Serevent analysis 64 Serevent: 12-month event screen 65 Serevent strategic analysis 65 Serevent forecasts to 2011 68 Foradil analysis 70 Foradil: 12-month event screen 71 Foradil strategic analysis 71 Foradil forecasts to 2011 72 Combination ICS & LABA inhalers market analysis 75 Top 10 leading ICS & LABA inhalers 75 R&D drugs in combination ICS & LABA class 78 Combination ICS & LABA inhaler market forecast 78 Advair analysis 80 Advair: 12-month event screen 81 Advair strategic analysis 82 Advair forecasts to 2011 85 Symbicort analysis 89 Symbicort: 12-month event screen 90 Symbicort strategic analysis 90 Symbicort forecasts to 2011 93 Leukotriene modifiers market analysis 96 Top 10 leading leukotriene modifiers 97 R&D drugs in leukotriene modifier class 98 Leukotriene modifier market forecast 99 Singulair analysis 101 Singulair: 12-month event screen 102 Singulair strategic analysis 102 Singulair forecasts to 2011 106 Anticholinergic market analysis 111 Top 10 leading anticholinergics 112 Anticholinergic market forecast 113 Spiriva analysis 115 Spiriva: 12-month event screen 116 Spiriva strategic analysis 117 Spiriva forecasts to 2011 119 All other respiratory drug class analysis 122 Xanthines 123 Spacer devices 124 Other recently launched/R&D drugs-Anti-IgE, PDE-4 inhibitors 124 Xolair 125 PDE-4 inhibitors-Ariflo, roflumilast 126 All other respiratory drug class forecasts 127 CHAPTER 4 PORTFOLIO AND LIFECYCLE MANAGEMENT 129 Key findings 129 Portfolio management 130 Market attractiveness 130 Comparative attractiveness of the asthma/COPD market 130 Class attractiveness in the asthma/COPD market 132 Positioning of the major asthma/COPD players 133 Portfolio analysis 135 GSK - respiratory marketing powerhouse 138 AstraZeneca - attention diverted by other drug launches 140 Merck - shrewd and savvy marketing expertise 141 Boehringer Ingelheim - COPD specialist 142 Emerging asthma/COPD players - the plot thickens… 144 Lifecycle management in asthma/COPD 147 Launch strategy and market penetration 147 Case study one: importance of Xolair’s pre-launch awareness campaign 148 Case study two: raising in-house awareness of Advair key to extraordinary sales performance 152 Optimizing peak sales 152 Case study: Flovent line extension and effective promotion 152 Revenue protection strategies 155 Reformulations, cross indications and brand loyalty keep Ventolin in top 10 best selling asthma/COPD drug list 155 CHAPTER 5 STRATEGIC PRODUCT POSITIONING 157 Key findings 157 Physician-focused product positioning 158 Physician-targeting strategies 158 Physician definition 158 Importance of treatment guidelines 159 Key conference themes 160 Brand positioning for key products in the major markets 162 Advair - “Reach higher” 162 Symbicort - “Tailored control - you’ve got it in one” 165 Singulair - “There’s excitement in the air” 165 Benchmarks and case studies 166 Using websites to promote core competency in respiratory disease 166 Physician detailing key to Singulair’s success 167 Pharmacist prescribing 168 Patient targeting and influence 169 Patient sub-group positioning analysis 169 Asthma 169 COPD 171 Brand imaging 171 Europe 172 DTC advertising 173 Pricing and reimbursement 177 Pricing threats 177 Europe 177 US 177 Pricing strategies - little room for maneuver 178 Europe 178 US 178 Japan 180 Pricing data for key products in the major markets 180 Treatment cost analysis 181 Case study: Advair shows cost effectiveness is the key benchmark of the future 183 APPENDIX A - MARKET DATA 185 Global asthma/COPD market data 185 Corticosteroid market data 186 Beta2-agonist market data 187 Combination corticosteroid & beta2-agonist market data 188 Leukotriene modifier market data 189 Anticholinergic market data 190 Xanthine market data 191 Respiratory NSAIDs market data 192 Combination beta2-agonist & respiratory NSAIDs market data 193 Other asthma/COPD drugs market data 194 Spacer devices market data 195 APPENDIX B 196 The CAM Group: data collation and methodology 196 Glossary of terms 197 APPENDIX C 199 Contributing experts 199 UK interview transcript 199 Dual asthma and allergic rhinitis indications 199 Combination ICS & LABA 200 Other drug classes 201 Triple therapy 202 Delivery devices 203 Off-label use 203 Enantiomers 203 Japan interview transcript 204 Japan 204 Dual asthma and allergic rhinitis indications 205 Combination ICS & LABA 206 Delivery devices 206 Off-label use 207 German interview transcript 207 Dual asthma and allergic rhinitis indications 207 Combination ICS & LABA 208 Delivery devices 210 Off-label use 210 Large-scale trials 210 US interview transcript 211 Dual asthma and allergic rhinitis indications 211 Combination ICS & LABA 212 Enantiomers 213 Delivery devices 214 Off-label use 215 Large-scale trials 215 List of tables 217 List of figures 222 List of figures 222 Glossary 225 Bibliography 226 Epidemiology 226 Clinical trial data 226 Report methodology 230 About Datamonitor 230 About Datamonitor Healthcare 230 Datamonitor Healthcare’s research and analysis methodologies 231 Datamonitor Healthcare’s therapy area capabilities 231 About the IDI analysis team 232 Datamonitor Healthcare’s Consulting expertise 233 Datamonitor’s Therapeutic Consulting expertise 234 Key therapy team members 234 Simon Wright, Director Immune Disorders and Inflammation 234 David Abramson, Therapeutic Lead Consultant 235 Disclaimer 236 AbstractIntroductionAn increase in asthma prevalence over the next decade will strain over-stretched healthcare budgets, leading to increased demand for cost-effective therapies. The COPD market will double in size by 2011, due to an aging population and new product launches. However, inhaler devices will remain the primary means of drug delivery, thereby maintaining extremely high barriers to market entry. Scope * IMS 2001/2002 data from 10 asthma/COPD drug classes, such as corticosteroids, beta2-agonists, combinations, anti-leukotrienes and spacer devices * Sales forecasts of current and pipeline therapies, including Advair, Symbicort, Singulair, Xolair, Spiriva, Alvesco and roflumilast * Case studies on Singulair’s promotional strategies, using CAM data, Advair’s pharmacoeconomic approach and Xolair’s pre-launch awareness campaign * Extensive interviews with opinion leaders from the US, Japan, UK and Germany regarding changes in treatment patterns over the next decade Report Highlights The lack of effective oral therapies in the pipeline means that inhalation will remain the primary mode of delivery in the medium term. The significant barriers to market entry present a real opportunity for companies with inhaler expertise to expand their traditionally small asthma/COPD portfolios, like Schering-Plough, Aventis and Novartis. Approval of Merck’s asthma drug Singulair for allergic rhinitis coincides perfectly with the launch of OTC generic Claritin in the US. In contrast, Aventis’ attempt to launch Allegra as a treatment for seasonal asthma will prove far less fruitful, due to the poor efficacy of antihistamines in a disease as complex as asthma. The COPD market will double in value over the next decade, largely driven by new product launches, including Spiriva and roflumilast, the key promotional role of Pfizer in overcoming low diagnosis rates and an aging population. European approval of Advair and Symbicort in COPD will see prescribing rates rise above current off-label levels. Reasons to Purchase * Learn how the findings of the SMART trial and the black box warning recently assigned by the FDA will affect sales of Advair * Determine the future of the PDE-4 inhibitor class following the FDA advisory committee’s rejection of GSK’s Ariflo * Investigate the potential for widespread use of combination therapies in all adult and pediatric asthmatics Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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