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Published by: Datamonitor
Published: Jun. 13, 2003 - 174 Pages
Table of Contents
CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Scope of the analysis
Datamonitor insight into the US HIV market
Despite predicted slow down in overall growth and key obstacles with regard to efficacy, diagnosis, resistance and compliance, Datamonitor predicts that the US HIV market will more than double by 2011 providing an additional $4.2 billion in revenue. During this timeframe, an influx of new products and competitors will fragment the current market challenging the dominant oligopoly.
The NRTI class will continue to dominate the HIV treatments market through its inclusion as a ‘backbone’ to global treatment regimens. Most inter-class competition will occur between NNRTI and PI based products. Their penetration as adjuncts or alternatives to existing NRTI backbones will depend on official recommendation, superior efficacy and improved resistance profile.
The HIV treatments market currently is more driven by product life-cycle management than ‘radical’ new product development. Datamonitor believes that enhanced dosing as a source of product differentiation will be effective in the short term, but will soon become commonplace. A focus on portfolio balance, minimizing exposure to NRTI patent expiry and shifting treatment regimes will be key to success.
Datamonitor believes the search for commercial value in the HIV treatments market will become increasingly complex. Product development should focus on targeting wider patient groups, taking into context commitments to corporate social responsibility, brand awareness and improved capture/diagnosis. Larger players should remain vigilant with regard to smaller, more agile competitors.
Summary
Key metrics
Key market events during 2002/2003
AIDS Healthcare Foundation Sues GSK
VaxGen’s AIDSVAX Shows Disappointing Endpoints
Gilead Acquires Triangle Pharmaceuticals
Fuzeon Receives FDA Approval
CHAPTER 2 MARKET SEGMENTATION & DEFINITION
2.1 Strategic scoping and focus
2.2 Market definition
Nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors
Non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors
Protease inhibitors
Entry inhibitors/fusion inhibitors
2.3 Definition of gold-standard drugs/classes
2.4 Associated pharmaceutical markets
CHAPTER 3 US MARKET ANALYSIS
3.1 US market analysis
Forecast scenario analysis
3.2 NRTI analysis
3.3 NRTI brand analysis
Combivir analysis
Epivir analysis
Trizivir analysis
Viread analysis
Zerit analysis
Ziagen analysis
Other drugs in the NRTI class
R&D drugs in the NRTI drug class
3.4 NNRTI brand analysis
Sustiva analysis
Viramune analysis
Rescriptor analysis
R&D drugs in the NNRTI drug class
3.5 PI brand analysis
Kaletra analysis
Viracept analysis
Other drugs in the PI class
R&D drugs in the PI drug class
3.6 Fusion inhibitor brand analysis
Fuzeon analysis
R&D drugs in the FI drug class
CHAPTER 4 LIFE-CYCLE AND PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
4.1 Strategic portfolio analysis
Introduction
Global pharmaceutical performance for key HIV market players
US pharmaceutical and HIV portfolio performance
Therapy area attractiveness matrix
Portfolio gap analysis
4.2 Life-cycle management overview
GSK’s Retrovir lifecycle characteristics
Life-cycle comparisons to GSK’s other HIV drugs
4.3 Launch strategy/market penetration analysis
Kaletra development and launch strategy: lessons from Norvir
Benchmarks and case studies
4.4 Optimizing peak sales
Benchmarks and case studies
4.5 Revenue protection strategies
Generic penetration analysis across classes
CHAPTER 5 STRATEGIC PRODUCT POSITIONING
5.1 Pricing and reimbursement
Health economic considerations
Pricing data for key products in the US
Patient cost analysis by line of therapy
Case studies
Role of patient advocacy
What do companies need to do to justify setting high price points?
Physician focused product positioning
Specialists in HIV Medicine
Physician targeting strategies
5.2 Patient targeting and influence
Patient sub-group positioning analysis
Brand eImaging
Patient advocacy and community initiatives
US HIV market data
Forecasting methodology
List of tables
List of figures
Bibliography
About Datamonitor
About Datamonitor Healthcare
Datamonitor Healthcare’s research and analysis methodologies
Datamonitor Healthcare’s therapy area capabilities
About Disease analysis team
Datamonitor Healthcare’s Consulting expertise
Datamonitor’s Therapeutic Consulting expertise
Key therapy team members
Simon Hemsworth, Director of Therapy Area Analysis
John Savopoulos, Lead analyst, Infectious Diseases
David Abramson, Therapeutic Lead Consultant
Dheeraj Khiytani, Senior Infectious Diseases Analyst
Disclaimer
List of Tables
Table 1: Key parameters of the US HIV market to 2011
Table 2: US forecasts of key currently marketed products in HIV, 2003-11
Figure 2: Timeline: the development of HIV therapy, 1987-2003
Table 3: Gold standard comparison by indication and class, 2003
Table 4: US HIV drug sales ($m), 2001-11
Figure 3: Top 10 drug contribution to market growth, 2001-11
Figure 4: Key NRTI contribution to US market growth, 2001-11
Table 5: Combivir: key facts
Table 6: US Combivir sales forecasts, 2003-11
Table 7: Epivir: key facts
Table 8: US Epivir sales forecasts, 2003-11
Table 9: Trizivir: key facts
Table 10: US Trizivir sales forecasts, 2003-11
Table 11: Viread: key facts
Table 12: US Viread sales forecasts, 2003-11
Table 13: Zerit: key facts
Table 14: US Zerit sales forecasts, 2003-11
Table 15: Ziagen: key facts
Table 16: US Ziagen sales forecasts, 2003-11
Table 17: Other NRTI drugs: key facts
Table 18: R&D included in NRTI forecast, 2003-11
Table 19: Sustiva: key facts
Table 20: US Sustiva sales forecasts, 2003-11
Table 21: Viramune: key facts
Table 22: US Ziagen sales forecasts, 2003-11
Table 23: Rescriptor: key facts
Table 24: R&D included in NNRTI forecast, 2003-11
Table 25: Kaletra: key facts
Table 26: US Kaletra sales forecasts, 2003-11
Table 27: Viracept: key facts
Table 28: US Viracept sales forecasts, 2003-11
Table 29: Other PI drugs: key facts
Table 30: R&D drugs included in PI forecast, 2003-11
Table 31: Fuzeon: key facts
Table 32: Analyst estimates of Fuzeon sales ($m), 2003-04
Table 33: R&D in FI drug class
Table 34: Global pharmaceutical sales for HIV drug manufacturers, 2000-02
Table 35: Global sales of infectious disease products for HIV drug manufacturers, 2000-02
Table 36: Global HIV product sales for HIV drug manufacturers, 2000-02
Table 37: Proportion of global pharmaceutical revenues generated by infectious disease franchises and HIV franchises, 2002
Table 38: Proportion of infectious disease revenues generated by HIV portfolio, 2002
Table 39: Comparison of global pharmaceutical, infectious disease and HIV CAGRs for HIV drug manufacturers, 2000-02
Table 40: US pharmaceutical, infectious disease and HIV product sales for HIV drug manufacturers, 2002
Table 41: Comparison of sales share of global and US HIV markets for HIV drug manufacturers (%), 2002
Table 42: Global HIV market comparison to other infectious disease areas ($m), 2003-10
Table 43: Comparison of HIV market leader global revenue dynamics to peer products in other infectious disease areas ($m), 2002
Table 44: Criteria for determining therapy attractiveness
Table 45: HIV market leader portfolio composition, 2002
Figure 26: Global sales of Retrovir, 1987-2002
Table 46: Annual US prices for currently marketed antiretrovirals, 2003
Table 47: Cost comparison for commonly used HIV drug regimens in the US, 2003
Figure 46: Viread patient product positioning
Table 48: US sales data for the top 10 selling HIV drugs by quarter ($m), 2001-02
Table 49: Forecast US sales for the top selling NRTIs ($m), 2001-11
Table 50: Forecast US sales for the top selling NNRTIs ($m), 2001-11
Table 51: Forecast US sales for the top selling PIs ($m), 2001-11
List of Figures
Figure 1: Key NRTI contribution to US market growth, 2001-2011
Figure 5: Key factors in the market dynamics of Combivir, 2003
Figure 6: Key factors in the market dynamics of Epivir, 2003
Figure 7: Key factors in the market dynamics of Trizivir, 2003
Figure 8: Key factors in the market dynamics of Viread, 2003
Figure 9: Key factors in the market dynamics of Zerit, 2003
Figure 10: Key factors in the market dynamics of Ziagen, 2003
Figure 11: Key factors in the market dynamics of Sustiva, 2003
Figure 12: Key factors in the market dynamics of Viramune, 2003
Figure 13: Key factors in the market dynamics of Kaletra, 2003
Figure 14: Key factors in the market dynamics of Viracept, 2003
Figure 15: Key factors in the market dynamics of Fuzeon, 2003
Figure 16: SWOT analysis of GSK’s portfolio strategy, 2003
Figure 17: GSK’s therapeutic strategy to 2007
Figure 18: SWOT analysis of BMS’s portfolio strategy, 2003
Figure 19: BMS’s therapeutic strategy to 2007
Figure 20: SWOT analysis of Abbott’s portfolio strategy, 2003
Figure 21: Average global company pharmaceutical, infectious disease and HIV product share by market, 2000-02
Figure 22: Comparison of US pharmaceutical, infectious disease and HIV sales dominance by rank, 2002
Figure 23: Comparison of sales share of the global and US HIV markets by HIV drug manufacturer, 2002
Figure 24: Global HIV market comparison to other infectious disease areas ($m), 2003-10
Figure 25: Therapeutic attractiveness matrix for selected infectious disease areas, 2003-07
Figure 27: Retrovir’s global sales life cycle characteristics, 1987-2002
Figure 28: Global sales lifecycle curves for GSK’s antiretrovirals, 1987-2002
Figure 29: Kaletra positioning summary, 2001
Figure 30: Kaletra pre-launch strategy, 1996-2000
Figure 31: Kaletra positioning strategy
Figure 32: Comparison of US Kaletra and Trizivir sales growth, 2000-02
Figure 33: Comparison of US Sustiva and Ziagen sales growth, 2000-02
Figure 34: Sales of Kaletra and Viracept following Kaletra launch, 2000-02
Figure 35: Viread and Zerit US sales by quarter preceding and following Viread launch, 2000-02
Figure 36: Lifecycle of a drug, and the potential effect of reformulation
Figure 37: Factors affecting company intervention in issues of public interest, 2003
Figure 38: Methodology for calculating average annual drug cost
Figure 39: Comparison of average vs. total cost for key combination regimens used in the US, 2003
Figure 40: Comparison of price points charged by GSK and BMS for their HIV portfolios in the US, 2003
Figure 41: Comparison of Trizivir and Combivir pricing in the US, 2003
Figure 42: AAHIVM segmentation of HIV-treating physicians by specialty, 2003
Figure 43: Patient segmentation by treating physicians
Figure 44: Strategies involved in physician detailing
Figure 45: Maximizing promotional effectiveness
Figure 47: Datamonitor’s Healthcare Consultancy
Figure 48: Datamonitor Healthcare’s Therapeutic Consulting capabilities
AbstractIntroduction:
With a focus on the commercial environment within the HIV sector in the USA, this Analysis investigates key market characteristics and the strategies required to improve market conditions. Analysis of company portfolio strategies and product positioning provides the reader with knowledge of how company strategies result in varying levels of commercial returns.
Scope:
* Detailed case studies featuring company portfolio, product development and launch strategies
* US sales data for the top 10 HIV products along with forecasts to 2011 for the top 10 selling HIV drugs and classes
* SWOT analyses of key HIV drugs are provided, along with 12-month event screens - providing detailed knowledge of events specific to each product
Report Highlights:
Despite a predicted slow down in overall growth and key obstacles with regard to efficacy, diagnosis, resistance and compliance, Datamonitor predicts that the US HIV market will more than double by 2011 providing an additional $4.2 bn in revenue.
The approval of Roche’s novel fusion inhibitor Fuzeon will change treatment strategies for late stage patients. The key barrier to use is its delivery method (subcutaneous) and high price.
With the launch of BMS’ Reyataz and BI’s tipranavir, the PI drug class will be as large as the NRTI drug class in terms of number of therapeutics. This will shift the usage of HAART towards NRTI-sparing regimens.
Reasons to Purchase:
* Understand the relationship between company product positioning strategies and HIV market characteristics
* Gain insight to HIV portfolio strategies and factors that drive successful drug development and launch
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