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Drugs of Tomorrow 2002: Depression - A pipeline driven by side effect profilePublished by: Datamonitor Published: Apr. 4, 2002 - 188 Pages Table of ContentsDATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE Global Director of CNS: Susanne Begley - sbegley@datamonitor.com Europe and Rest of World - mmeek@datamonitor.com or +44 20 7675 7311 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Scope Datamonitor insight into the depression market Lundbeck/Forest’s Lexapro is the follow up compound to Celexa with a launch strategy to switch patients from the former to the latter. This will be the key Lexapro’s success, although the patent expiry of rival SSRI compounds will contribute to Lexapro reaching blockbuster status by 2009. Duloxetine is Eli Lilly’s follow-up compound to Prozac. It is likely to be a significant threat to Effexor, however the key to its success remains its dosage requirements, as they must match Effexor otherwise the compound will struggle to impact Effexor’s market position Merck is the leading company in the development of Substance P compounds and is set to be the first to launch into the market in 2005. However, the fortunes of this drug will influence the actions of other competitors, because if Merck’s drug is commercially successful then it is likely to come under early, sustained competition from Pfizer’s CP-122721. Key metrics TABLE OF CONTENTS PATIENT POTENTIAL Introduction Major depression Social anxiety disorder Generalized anxiety disorder Panic disorder Obsessive compulsive disorder Post-traumatic stress disorder Premenstrual dysphoric disorder Future trends in the prevalence of depression General depression prevalence in the major markets Segmentation of depression Diagnosis, treatment and compliance rates Unmet needs in depression Efficacy Onset of action Side effects of existing treatments Refractory patients Compliance R&D APPROACH Classification of pipeline products Serotonergics Noradrenergics NK-1 Substance P antagonists Reversible monoamine oxidase inhibitors Novel compounds Clinical trials endpoints in depression Critique of clinical trial design in depression DEPRESSION PIPELINE OVERVIEW Late-stage pipeline Phase III and above Phase II Phase I Preclinical Discontinued compounds Key licensing strategies in depression Pipeline analysis by class Phase III and Registration Phase II Phase I Preclinical Pipeline analysis by licensing opportunity Organon (Ariza) Kyowa Hakko (KW-6002) Pipeline analysis by individual company Organon GSK Eli Lilly Solvay Pfizer LATE-STAGE DRUG ANALYSIS Comparison of key compounds in depression Efficacy Onset of action Side effect profile Compliance Marketing strength Serotonergics drug profiles Overview Lexapro (escitalopram) Satisfaction of unmet needs Ariza (gepirone) Satisfaction of unmet needs Sunepitron Satisfaction of unmet needs Robalzotan Ectris Satisfaction of unmet needs Vilazodone (EMD 68843) Satisfaction of unmet needs Alnespirone Satisfaction of unmet needs DU 125530 Satisfaction of unmet needs Comparative analysis Noradrenergics Overview Duloxetine Satisfaction of unmet needs Substance P Overview Satisfaction of unmet needs MAOIs Overview EmSam Satisfaction of unmet needs Novel compounds Overview Igmesine OPC-14523 Satisfaction of unmet needs CP-122721 KW-6002 Recently discontinued late stage development compounds Overview R-fluoxetine MCI 225 NS2389 NKP 608 INNOVATIVE EARLY STAGE PROJECTS Key phase I and preclinical compounds in depression Ampakine Galanin compounds NBI 34041 CHAPTER 7 THE FUTURE DECODED Methodology Predicting initial market share Forecasting future growth Influencing factors Market drivers Forecast launches dates for new antidepressants Key R&D product forecasts to 2009 Lexapro Ariza Duloxetine Sunepitron Igmesine Substance P DU 125530 Vilazodone Robalzotan ORG 12962 Leading products by 2009 Alternative scenarios Scenario A: the launch of CP-122721 Scenario B: Paxil loses patent CHAPTER 8 APPENDIX Datamonitor's Central Nervous System Business Unit Contributing experts Table of tables Table of figures Bibliography Merck KGaA, Press release, October 2000 Roper Starch Worldwide Inc. (2000) America's Mental Health Survey Websites R&D research methodology Introduction Hypothesis formulation Hypothesis testing Data verification and quality control Quantification of data reliability © Datamonitor 2002. All Rights Reserved. AbstractDatamonitor's Drugs of Tomorrow 2002: Depression - A Pipeline Driven by Side Effect Profile provides a comprehensive review of drugs in development for the treatment of depression. You will gain access to: • Detailed analysis of drugs in late stage development (stage II and above), including clinical and marketing profiles • Analysis of key compounds in early stage development • Revenue forecasts for key drugs up to 2009 • Alternative forecasts in the event of selected scenarios up to 2009 • The impact of new compounds and novel classes on the antidepressant market as a whole and individual brands within this market • Opinion leader comment about vital issues raised in the analysis RESEARCH METHODOLOGY: Datamonitor's Drugs of Tomorrow analyses are based on extensive secondary and primary research into compounds in development for the relevant disease. Research is conducted by an in-house team who interview over 1000 employees from approximately 600 companies to establish an extensive database of product sales figures across 26 therapeutic areas. The following steps are carried out for each Drugs of Tomorrow research project: • Key points of information on drugs in the pipeline are compiled by a research team • The pre-clinical and clinical data of the compounds is complied and analyzed • The analysis is discussed with opinion leaders and amended as appropriate • Data validation through key company contacts to validate research findings STRUCTURE AND SCOPE: Patient Potential in Depression -Examines trends in the prevalence, diagnosis and comorbidities of the disease. R&D Approach Analyzes the different classes of antidepressants in development and provides a narrative of the tools used in clinical trials and a critique of how the trials are designed. Pipeline Overview Analyzes trends in the development programs and suggests marketing strategies for compounds and licensing potential for manufacturers. Late Stage Drug Analysis Analyzes antidepressants in late stage development and provides insight into the clinical data, marketing strength and impact on the current gold standard. Early Stage Drug Analysis Analyzes promising early stage antidepressants in terms of the scientific premise of the development programs and their potential to differentiate from current and late stage antidepressants. Market Forecasts Provides revenue forecasts for key compounds in development and also alternative forecasts in the event of major impacting factorsGet Full Details About This Report >> |
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