Indonesia Tourism Report Q1 2013

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Dec. 19, 2012 - 68 Pages


Table of Contents

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Indonesia Tourism SWOT
Indonesia Political SWOT
Indonesia Economic SWOT
Indonesia Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Arrivals
Table: Arrivals Data, 2010-2017
Accommodation
Table: Hotels Data, 2010-2017 ('000, unless stated)
Expenditure
Table: Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2010-2017
Inbound Tourism
Table: Inbound Tourism, 2010-2017
Outbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism, 2010-2017
Market Overview - Travel
Airports
Commercial Airlines
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts And Bloomberg Consensus, Average Price (US$/bbl)
Market Overview - Hospitality
Accommodation
H5N1 Virus Update
Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings
BMI Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
South East Asia Security Overview
Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
South East Asia In A Global Context
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security
Main Islamist Militant Groups In South East Asia
Other Regional Threats
China-US Rivalry In South East Asia
Outlook For South East Asia
Global Assumptions
Table: Global Assumptions, 2011-2017
Table: Global & Regional Real GDP Growth, % chg y-o-y
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2011-2014
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2011-2014
Developed States
Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2014 (%)
Emerging Markets
Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2014 (%)
Table: BMI v Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecast, 2012-2013 (%)
Company Profiles
Accor Asia Pacific
Garuda Indonesia
Lion Air
Demographic Outlook
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Indonesia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Indonesia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Indonesia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings - Methodology
Table: Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Components
Sources

Abstract

The Indonesia Tourism Report examines the strong long-term potential being offered by the local tourismindustry, bolstered by rising demand for regional travel from China in particular, but cautions that thethreat of renewed terrorist activity aimed at foreign tourists and a possible resurgence in the number ofcases of bird flu in the archipelago (with nine reported cases over 2012 year-to-date) remain key risks toBMI's future forecasts on this key economic sector.

We also analyse the growth and risk management strategies being employed by some of the leadingplayers in the local tourism sector (ie: airlines and hotel chains) as they seek to maximise the tremendousgrowth opportunities being offered by the Indonesian market.

Tourist arrivals to Indonesia over January-September 2012 increased by 5% year-on-year (y-o-y) to reach5,895,288 people, according to information from the Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy. Thisleaves the country well on course to meet BMI's full-year target of 7.91mn tourist arrivals. This is lowerthan the target of 8mn set for the full year by the Ministry of Tourism and Creative Economy. Ngurah RaiAirport in Bali remains the most popular arrival airport for foreign tourists, with 2.14mn travellers havingpassed through the airport over 9M12, up by 3.45% y-o-y. Soekarno-Hatta Airport in Jakarta remained insecond place, on 1.5mn passengers, up by 5.8% y-o-y.

Beyond 2012, our forecast is for tourist arrivals to increase by an average annual rate of 4.2% per annumover the next five years, leading to a total of over 9.72mn tourist arrivals by end-2017. If the globaleconomy picks up momentum going into 2013, then there will be clear upside risks to our forecasts.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:

BMI believes that the ongoing expansion plans by French hotel chain Accor across Indonesiawill only further strengthen its market dominance in the sector. Recent openings include the 201-room Mercure Bali Nusa Dua, the 606-room Ibis Bandung Trans Studio and the All Seasons BaliBenoa. The company has also recently launched an Indonesian language version of itsaccorhotels.com online reservation website, with a view to targeting 40% of global bookingsfrom Indonesia by 2015, up from around 20% currently.

BMI believes that the recently-announced codeshare agreement between Garuda Indonesia andAbu Dhabi's flag carrier Etihad Airways could prove very beneficial for both airlines. It willgive Garuda access to Etihad's extensive network of European and North American destinations,while Etihad now has scope to expand its network towards east Asia.

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