Thailand Agribusiness Report Q1 2013

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Nov. 14, 2012 - 84 Pages


Table of Contents

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Thailand Agricultural SWOT
Thailand Business Environment SWOT
Supply & Demand Analysis
Thailand Grains Outlook
Table: Thailand Corn Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Thailand Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Thailand Rice Outlook
Table: Thailand Rice Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Thailand Rice Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Thailand Sugar Outlook
Table: Thailand Sugar Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Thailand Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Thailand Dairy Outlook
Table: Thailand Milk Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Thailand Butter Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Thailand Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: Thailand Butter Consumption, 2008-2012
Thailand Livestock Outlook
Table: Thailand Poultry Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Thailand Pork Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Thailand Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2012-2017
Table: Thailand Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: Thailand Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: Thailand Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Commodity Price Analysis
Monthly Softs Update
Cocoa: Sufficient Supply
Coffee: Temporary Rally
Cotton: Against Resistance
Palm Oil: Outperforming The Oilseeds Complex
Sugar: Surging Supply
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts
Monthly Grains Update
Wheat: Resilience On Borrowed Time
Corn: Looking The Weakest
Soybean: Little Relief Ahead
Rice: A Strong Performer
Table: Select Commodities – Performance & BMI Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Asia Machinery Outlook
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
Asia GM Outlook
Table: Select Countries Growing GM Crops
Downstream Analysis
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016
Canned Food
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016
Drink
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016
Soft Drinks
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016
Hot Drinks
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: MGR Sales Value By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016
Trade
Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2016
Country Snapshot
Table: Thailand’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000)
Table: Thailand’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Thailand’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Thailand’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Abstract

BMI View: Thailand will maintain its status of key Asian agricultural provider in the coming years.However, the government’s interference in the market, especially in the rice sector, will hinder thecompetitiveness of Thai’s production compared to its Asian rivals. Although rice farmers will directlygain from the rice guarantee buyback-programme, we are uncertain about the long-term effectiveness ofthese policies in enhancing Thai food-producing efficiency as well as boosting the country’s exportcompetitiveness. The programme appears to be untenable in the medium term, and we see growing risksfor Thailand to partially cut the subsidies or drop the policy. This would have major impacts on exportsand international rice prices.

Key Forecasts

Poultry production growth to 2016/17: 30.3 % to 1.9mn tonnes. This growth will largely bedue to increased private investment in the sector. The lift of an eight-year EU ban on uncookedimports in April 2012 will allow imports of Thai-produced poultry and other food products andgive the industry more impetus to expand production.

Sugar production growth to 2016/17: 31.8% to 13.4mn tonnes. Strong sugar cane yieldimprovements and improved sugar recovery will support growth.

Rice consumption growth to 2016/17: 20.3% to 12.5mn tonnes. Rice will remain the staplefood for Thais, and there is little opportunity for substitution. Thais are more likely to cut nonessentialitems such as meat and soft drinks when economic times are tough.

BMI universe agribusiness market value: 21.7mn in 2013; growth to average4.2% annually to 2016/17.

Real GDP growth in 2013: 2.9% year-on-year (y-o-y); down from 3.3% in 2012, forecast toaverage 2.7% to 2017.

Consumer price index in 2013: 2.9% average; to average 2.7% to 2017.

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