Tanzania Agribusiness Report Q4 2012Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Oct. 26, 2012 - 72 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractBMI View: For grains, we forecast a strong corn crop in 2012/13 thanks to a more supportive weather.This, in contrast with lower crops in the region because of recurring droughts, will support exportdemand from the country, leaving domestic prices high. The rice and sugar industries are still attractinginvestment from foreign companies, especially from Asia. The coffee crop is set to rebound strongly in2012/13 and the country's exports will participate to our view for loosening supply. Rapid Surge In Prices Tanzania – Coffee Average Prices For Mild AA Grade In Recent Auctions (US$/50kg) Source: Tanzania Coffee Board Key Forecasts Rice production growth to 2015/16: 12.1% to 1.1mn tonnes. The rice sector will benefit fromincreased investment from foreign companies which plan to cultivate rice as a food securitycrop. Also, new varieties could boost yields in the medium term. Corn consumption growth to 2015/16: 22.7% to 4.1mn tonnes. A combination of enhancedyields (contributing to lower prices) and rising living standards is expected to drive cornconsumption growth. Coffee production growth to 2015/16: 29.5% to 1.2 tonnes. Tanzania has recently acceleratedits replanting programme and plans to plant 16mn new coffee trees for the next season. Over thelong term, we also expect strong export demand to lift coffee prices and contribute to increasedincome for small-farmer producers. 2013 real GDP growth: 7.4% y-o-y (up from 7.0% in 2012; forecast to average 7.1% over2011-2016). Consumer price inflation: 9.3% year-on-year average in 2013 (down from 15.9% in 2012;forecast to average 9.4% over 2011-2016). BMI universe agribusiness market value: 11.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase to US$1.9bnin 2012/13, forecast to increase by an annual average of 3.0% between 2010/11 and 2015/16. Key Views Significant demand for Tanzania's diverse rice varieties, especially from neighbouring countries, iskeeping prices at high levels on the domestic market. This is in spite of a strong local production of 1.1mntonnes in 2011/12, a 19.2% increase compared to 2010/11. Because of the production surplus, farmerssold increased quantities of rice to Kenya, Uganda, DR Congo, Malawi, Burundi, Rwanda and Zambiabecause of elevated global prices and good profitability for the crop. We have revised up our 2012/13 coffee forecast for Tanzania as good rainfall during plantings havehelped flowering for the crop. We now forecast coffee production to increase 71.0% y-o-y to 917,00060kg bags in 2012/13. This will come from base effects as our output estimate for 2011/12 was reviseddown to 535,000 bags because of droughts in the country's main growing regions. The increase in outputwill also be due to the country's biennial production cycle and as the country is entering an up-year in itscycle. In line with this, the quality of the 2012/13 should also be much better than in 2011/12. Get full details about this report >> |
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