Malaysia Agribusiness Report Q4 2012

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Sep. 26, 2012 - 77 Pages


Table of Contents

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Malaysia Agriculture SWOT
Malaysia Business Environment SWOT
Supply & Demand Analysis
Malaysia Palm Oil Outlook
Table: Malaysia Palm Oil Production & Consumption, 2012-2016
Table: Malaysia Palm Oil Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Malaysia Sugar Outlook
Table: Malaysia Sugar Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Malaysia Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Malaysia Cocoa Outlook
Table: Malaysia Cocoa Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Malaysia Cocoa Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Malaysia Livestock Outlook
Table: Malaysia Poultry Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Malaysia Pork Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Malaysia Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2011-2016
Table: Malaysia Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: Malaysia Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Table: Malaysia Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2012
Commodity Price Analysis
Monthly Grains Update
Wheat: Little Potential For Export Restrictions
Corn: US Downgrades Tighten Market Further
Soybean: South America In The Spotlight
Rice: The Only Well-Supplied Grain Market
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts
Monthly Softs Update
Cocoa: Looking Supported
Coffee: Supported In Short Term
Palm Oil: Heading Back To Support
Sugar: Searching For Support
Cotton: Still In A Downward Trend Channel
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts
Upstream Analysis
Asia GM Outlook
Asia Machinery Outlook
Asia Fertiliser Outlook
Downstream Analysis
Consumer Outlook
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Food Consumption Indicators, 2010-2016
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Sales, 2010-2016
Drink
Hot Drinks
Table: Tea And Coffee Sales, 2010-2016
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcoholic Drink Sales, 2010-2016
Soft Drinks
Table: Soft Drink Sales, 2010-2016
Mass Grocery Retail
Table: MGR Sales By Format, 2010-2016
Country Snapshot
Table: Malaysia’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000)
Table: Malaysia’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Malaysia’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Malaysia’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
y affects this year’s prediction.

Abstract

BMI View: While we view positively Malaysia’s strategy for the agriculture sector to climb the valuechain in the long term, we believe that much more must be done to keep it ahead of the competition. Thefact that the government may incentivise refiners to move further downstream is a good step towards thisgoal. The sugar industry could benefit from this trend given a government proposal to further explore theuse of palm oil waste for industrial sugar. Regarding the declining cocoa sector, we believe Malaysia’sgoal to ramp up output is overly optimistic.

Key Forecasts

Palm oil production growth to 2015/16: 14.2% to 20.8mn tonnes. Companies are expected toreplant mature estates, and yields are likely to improve as a result of better technology. Domesticrefining capabilities will also need to improve in response to the new tax regime change inIndonesia, which is aimed at boosting the refining industry.

Poultry production growth to 2016: 9.9% to 1.4mn tonnes in 2015/16. More investment inthe sector, as outlined in the 10th Malaysia Economic Plan, will boost growth.

Cocoa consumption growth to 2016: 13.4% to 339,270 tonnes. In contrast with production,we expect demand for cocoa in Malaysia to remain strong owing to combination of risingincomes and population growth.

BMI universe agribusiness market value: 3.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) rise to US$24.6bn in2011/12, forecast to grow on average 8.8% annually between 2010/11 and 2015/16.

2012 real GDP growth: 3.8% (down from 5.1% in 2011, forecast to average 4.3% from 2011 to2016).

2012 consumer price inflation: 1.7% (up from 2.6% in 2011, forecast to average 2.2% from2011 to 2016).

2012 central bank policy rate: 2.75% (down from 3.0% in 2011, forecast to average 3.3%from 2011 until 2016).

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