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Romania Tourism Report Q2 2010

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Feb. 26, 2010 - 52 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Romania Tourism Industry SWOT
Romania Political SWOT
Romania Economic SWOT
Romania Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Arrivals
Table: Arrivals Data, 2006-2014 (‘000)
Accommodation
Table: Accommodation Data, 2005-2014
Expenditure
Table: Expenditure And Economic Impact Data, 2005-2014
Inbound Tourism
Table: Inbound Tourism Data, 2006-2014 (‘000)
Outbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2006-2014 (‘000, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Resident Departures By Destination Country, 2005-2013 (‘000)
Market Overview - Travel
Commercial Airlines
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q409-Q410 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl)
Market Overview - Hospitality
Table: Key Players In The Romanian Hotel Industry, 2008 (US$mn)
Accommodation Developments
Infrastructure
Business Environment
Regional Tourism Business Environment Ratings
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Travel And Tourism Business Environment Rating
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Romania’s Security Risk Ratings
City Terrorism Rating
Table: BMI’s Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index
Central And Eastern Europe Security Overview
Currency Forecast
Table: BMI’s Romania Currency Forecasts, 2009 And 2010
Global Assumptions
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2008-2011 (%)
Table: Global Assumptions, 2008-2014
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average)
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average)
Company Profiles
Austrian Airlines
Hilton
SIF Transilvania
Tarom
Unita Turism Holding
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings - Methodology
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting of Components
Sources

Abstract

Tourism Overview

The Romanian tourism sector experienced an extremely tough year in 2009. In the wake of impressivegrowth in foreign visitor arrivals in 2007 and 2008, data for the first 11 months of 2009 record aconsiderable deterioration in the number of foreign visitors, with arrivals down just over 15% comparedwith the corresponding period a year earlier. Approximately 95% of the all arrivals in the period werefrom European countries, with 63% of visitors coming from the EU (of which, in order of importance,Hungary, Bulgaria, Germany and Italy were the main source markets). A deep recession in Romania in2009 also hit tourist departures, with customs data showing a 10.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline inRomanian visitors abroad during January-November.

Hospitality

The hospitality sector bore the brunt of a substantial fall in foreign visitors in 2009. In the period January-November, tourist nights for foreign and domestic tourists in all accommodation establishments weredown over 16% y-o-y. Foreign tourist nights fell an even larger 21% compared with the same 11 monthsin 2008, while tourist nights by domestic guests (accounting for some 85% of the total) fell by over 15%y-o-y. During the same period, foreign visitor arrivals in collective accommodation establishmentsdeclined by some 14% y-o-y.

Forecast Scenario

BMI continues to hold with its forecast of sizeable negative annual growth in foreign visitor arrivals of-15% in 2009, which is underpinned by almost complete data for the year. A slight pickup in visitorarrivals to Romania is anticipated in 2010, with further acceleration in growth expected in 2011 (over 7%y-o-y). These forecasts are primarily based on mild economic recovery in key source markets, with theeurozone tentatively emerging from recession in 2010 but growth is anticipated to pick up to 1.7% in2011. Over the remainder of the extended forecast period, the outlook for arrivals remains relativelyfavourable. At the beginning of 2010, political stability appears to be supporting the Romanian leu againstthe euro, with further appreciation supported on a technical basis. Moreover, BMI’s view of anappreciation trend of the leu is likely to dampen the growth of inward tourism over the long term.

Tarom

The rate of decline in the Romanian national flag carrier Tarom’s passenger traffic in 2009 has eased,improving from -12% y-o-y in the first eight months to -9.4% y-o-y in the period January-October.Indeed, traffic increased a modest 1.5% y-o-y in October.

Wizz Air

In June 2010, Hungarian low-cost carrier Wizz Air will add a third aircraft in Cluj-Napoca, which willresult in the launch of new flights to Pisa and Cuneo Torino and increase frequencies on some of theexisting routes. The new aircraft will become the seventh Wizz Air Airbus A320 in the country. At thesame time, the airline will also add Pisa to its list of destinations from Bucharest and start new servicesfrom Timisoara to Forli Bologna.

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