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India Tourism Report Q2 2010

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Feb. 26, 2010 - 58 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
India Tourism SWOT
India Political SWOT
India Economic SWOT
India Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Arrivals
Table: Arrivals Data, 2006-2014
Expenditure
Table: Tourism Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2006-2014
Inbound Tourism
Table: Tourists Arrivals By Region, 2006-2014 (‘000, unless stated)
Table: Tourist Arrivals By Country, 2006-2014 (‘000)
Outbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2006-2014
Table: Resident Departures By Destination Country, 2006-2014 (‘000)
Market Overview - Travel
Commercial Airlines
Focus On Jet Airways
Focus On Low-Cost Carriers
Table: Domestic Market Share Of Indian Airlines, 2008
Improving Infrastructure
Cruise Sector
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q108-Q409 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Prices, 2007-2014 (US$/bbl)
Market Overview - Hospitality
Hotels
Table: Accommodation Data, 2006-2014 (‘000)
Tax Breaks For Hotels In Budget
Gambling
Special Focus: 2010 Commonwealth Games
Special Focus: Medical Tourism
H1N1 Virus Update
H5N1 Virus Update
Business Environment Outlook
Tourism Business Environment
Table: Asia Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
India’s Security Rating
Regional Security Overview: North And South Asia
Currency Forecasts
Table: BMI’s India Currency Forecasts
Table: India Monetary Policy, 2006-2013
Global Assumptions
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2008-2011 (%)
Table: Global Assumptions, 2008-2014
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average)
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average)
Company Profiles
Jet Airways
Taj Hotels
National Aviation Company of India (Air India)
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings - Methodology
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting of Components
Sources

Abstract

Total 2009 Visitor Arrivals Show Fall

Preliminary data released by India’s Ministry of Tourism in January 2010 show that India’s touristindustry experienced a dismal year in 2009. Overall, full-year arrivals totalled 5.1mn, a fall of 5% yearon-year (y-o-y), from the 5.3mn received in 2008. Although this is a sharp fall, particularly given that pre-2008 annual growth rates had been over 10%, monthly figures are more encouraging. Although the fallswere particularly sharp in Q109, with a decline of 17.6% in January 2009, arrivals returned to minimalgrowth in June and July. They then declined again during the rainy season in Q309 but picked up stronglytowards the end of 2009, with December registering 21.0% y-o-y growth and arrivals of 646,024.

However, we would caution that this strong December figure does not set the trend for 2010. Instead, itreflects a month of traditionally high arrivals over the holiday season. Rather, we expect H110 at least toremain uncertain, with minimal growth but no strong recovery. The second half of the year willexperience a more steady recovery, with the Commonwealth Games in October 2010 providing awelcome boost to arrivals.

Focus On Kerala

Among India’s 28 states, the southern state of Kerala is among the most popular among tourists. One ofits major attractions is its climate, which is moderate for most of the year, with two rainy seasons. Thestate also has some of the most beautiful and extensive beaches in India, with a number of high-end beachresorts located within easy distance of the two main airports, Cochin (Kochi) and Trivandrum. Kerala’sdiversity means that it has become a popular tourist destination, particularly during the winter months.Kerala is also a popular destination for domestic tourists, ensuring that its tourism industry remainedsteady even during the general industry downturn in 2008-2009.

Government Bails Out Air India

Despite taking several cost cutting measuring, including reducing benefits and reducing jobs, Air Indiacontinued to suffer in 2009. As a result, the government was forced to bail out the national carrier byapproving at INR30bn injection of funds to the airline, with the first INR20bn tranche scheduled fordisbursement in March 2010. In response, the airline agreed to a major restructuring programme,involving cuts of US$650mn over two years. This has already received opposition from employees, whowent on strike in September 2009 over plans to reduce pay incentives. In addition, the airline is reducingits costs by deferring the arrival of six Boeing 777s by two years and it plans to lease out between 20 and27 aircraft to raise revenue.

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