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China Tourism Report Q2 2010

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Feb. 22, 2010 - 51 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
China Tourism Industry SWOT
China Political SWOT
China Economic SWOT
China Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Arrivals Data, 2006-2014 (‘000, unless stated)
Table: Accommodation Data, 2006-2014
Table: Tourism Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2006-2014
Table: Tourists Arrivals, 2006-2014 (‘000, unless stated)
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2005-2014
Market Overview - Travel
Airlines
State-Run Airlines
Private Airlines
Cruises
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q409-Q410 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl)
Market Overview - Hospitality
Hotels
Key Risks To Accommodation Forecast Scenario
Special Focus: Budget Hotels
Gaming
H1N1 And H5N1 Virus Update
H1N1 Virus Update
H5N1 Virus Update
Business Environment Outlook
Table: Asia Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
China’s Security Risk Rating
Regional Security Overview: North And South Asia
Currency Forecast
Table: China Monetary Policy, 2006-2013
Global Assumptions
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2008-2011 (%)
Table: Global Assumptions, 2008-2014
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average)
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average)
Company Profiles
Air China
Melco International Development
Shangri-La Asia
Jinjiang International Holdings
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings - Methodology
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting of Components
Sources

Abstract

Overall Decline In 2009

In January 2010, the China National Tourism Administration (CNTA) released its full-year report on thecountry’s tourist industry for 2009. It shows that tourist arrivals fell by 3.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) in2009, to total 126.6mn. This was a decline from the 143mn arrivals registered in 2008. This declinecomes as little surprise, given the adverse economic environment. In particular, the global economicdownturn weighed heavily on foreign tourism arrivals, while the outbreak of the H1N1 virus (swine flu)in China in April 2009 further deterred tourism. In addition, exchange rate fluctuations meant that foreignexchange revenues from tourism fell by 4.5% y-o-y, to US$39bn.

More positively, the government’s efforts to increase domestic tourism appear to have paid off,compensating to some extent for the downturn in foreign arrivals. Domestic tourist visits rose by animpressive 15% y-o-y, to 1.9bn in 2009, while domestic tourism revenues rose to US$185bn, a 9% yearon-year (y-o-y) increase. Although some of this domestic tourism boom was forced by the fact that morepeople could not afford to leave the country, it marks a positive development and means that the tourismindustry has not suffered a major slowdown during the 2008-2009 economic downturn. Moreover, withforeign tourist arrivals picking up again towards the end of 2009, we expect arrivals to continuerecovering in 2010, albeit minimally, and we forecast arrivals of 126.8mn.

Hainan Province Tipped For Development

In early 2010, the government announced plans to develop the southern province of Hainan as a nationaland regional tourism centre. The province is in fact an archipelago of approximately 200 islands, althoughthe main population and tourist infrastructure is found on Hainan Island. The island’s southern locationand warm climate makes it ideal as a tourist destination, although it has largely been a location fordomestic tourism so far. The government aims to change this by developing it as a site for internationaltourism and in particular by opening up its gaming industry. Given that several neighbouring countries,such as South Korea, prohibit gambling, this would position Hainan as a regional gambling hub, in asimilar way to the special administrative region (SAR) of Macau. The government will also introduce atax-free scheme system on Hainan Island, encouraging its development as a location for shopping visits.

Cruise Sector Builds On Potential

Amid the general slowdown in 2009, China’s developing cruise sector performed well, with 156 cruisevessels arriving in Chinese ports, with passenger arrivals of 380,000. Although the industry began togrow in the 1970s, it only began to gain momentum in 2005 when Chinese nationals were first permittedto board cruises stopping in other countries. Cruises are becoming one of the fastest growing sectors ofdomestic tourism, with the number of Chinese passengers rising from 10,000 in 2005 to 110,000 in 2008.Although China still lags behind the rest of the region in terms of cruise infrastructure, the industry’spotential is encouraging towns to upgrade their facilities. Sixteen of China’s 23 main ports now havecruise terminals. Tianjin will open a terminal in late 2010 and construction will begin at Dalian this year.

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