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Peru Freight Transport Report Q2 2010Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Feb. 16, 2010 - 66 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractAt the end of December 2009, Peru’s finance minister, Mercedes Araoz, published a decree prioritising 16 internal infrastructure projects to take place in 2010. The 16 projects are in several sectors, including power, roads, ports and airports. The projects will be jointly developed by public and private sectors in order to be completed quickly. Araoz said that the projects form part of the government’s economic stimulus plan. Peru’s infrastructure is an obstacle to the country’s competitiveness. Peru is rich in minerals but poor transport infrastructure hinders efficiency and increases transport costs. The electricity supply is also insufficient to meet peak demand, with blackouts hitting the capital city, Lima, in March 2009. According to Peru’s energy minister, as quoted by Bloomberg, US$10bn-worth in energy investments are expected over the next seven years. In December 2008, President Alan García announced plans to invest US$13.2bn in the economy through the construction of social and transport infrastructure, as well as other projects.We have cut back our estimate for GDP growth in 2009 (down to 1.5% from 2.0%) but boosted the forecast for 2010 (up to 4.6% from 4.4%). We remain positive for the medium term outlook. Peruvian GDP will grow by an annual average of 4.7% in 2010-2014, weaker than the 6.9% average over the preceding five-year period of 2005-2009, but still healthy. We have broadly maintained earlier adjustments to freight-carried-to-GDP ratios across different modes of transport. Earlier we reset our forecast for maritime freight, linking it to trade volumes (rather than GDP as previously) and noting that the global shipping slowdown will be offsetting new investments going into Callao and other Pacific ports. Pipeline throughput projections have been lifted towards the tail-end of our forecast period as we are expecting the final phases of the Camisea gas project to have a positive effect. Camisea should also support maritime freight, with LNG exports to the western seaboard of North America picking up. Consequently we expect freight carried across all modes, measured in mntkm, to rise by an annual average of 7.3% across the forecast period, 2.6pps faster than the economy as a whole. According to our latest estimates, transport and communications GDP rose by 1.7% in 2009, ahead of the 1.5% gain for the economy as a whole. For the 2010-2014 forecast period, we expect the transport and communications sector to continue outpacing the economy as a whole by a small margin. It will achieve average annual growth of 4.8%, versus 4.7% for overall GDP. The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$2.76bn in nominal terms by 2014, representing 8.6% of Peru’s GDP. The transport and communications sector employed an estimated 742,500 people, or 8.5% of the labour force, in 2009. We see those figures rising to 814,900 and 8.5% by 2014. In terms of freight carried, measured in mntkm, no accurate statistics have been collected for the roadhaulage sector. However, based on BMI estimates, we expect that growth in road haulage will be ahead of the rate of expansion of the economy as a whole at 5.8% a year during 2010-2014. As in most developing economies, Peruvian freight-demand tends to run ahead of overall GDP. This is offset, however, by the limitations of the national highway network, which act as a constraint. It should be noted, however, that the completion of the inter-oceanic highway between Peru and Brazil in the forecast period will have a strong positive impact on turnover. Traffic data are collected for the rail sector and here we predict average annual growth of 5.1%. As far as maritime freight carried is concerned we expect growth to average 9.5% a year. Although the global downturn in trade and shipping had an effect in 2009, in the forecast period starting from 2010 we see a recovery on the back of mineral exports, extra investment in the ports as more private operators are brought in and, towards the end of the period, the initiation of significant LNG shipments from the Camisea field. In airfreight, we are projecting average annual growth of airfreight tonnage of 5.1%. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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