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Chile Freight Transport Report Q2 2010Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Feb. 9, 2010 - 59 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractInitial estimates have put the price of building the Transandino Central Rail Tunnel linking central Chile and the Argentine province of Mendoza at US$5bn. The project will form part of a regional trade corridor that will link Uruguay, Paraguay, Brazil, Chile and Argentina. The project will be completed in two phases, with the first phase expected to cost US$2.8bn, according to an official from the Initiative for the Integration of Regional Infrastructure in South America (IIRSA), as cited by BNamericas. This phase will include construction of a 52km tunnel through the Andes at an altitude of 2,000-2,500m, as well as a single rail line to transport cargo. This phase is planned to be completed by 2010. The second phase, which is due to take place between 2020 and 2040, will involve adding another tunnel and three more rail lines to include both passenger and cargo services. This phase is due to cost US$2bn. The high costs related to the project are not suprising, however, the issue of financing has not been addressed as yet, and could prove to be a prohibitive element of the project. Argentina’s CASA and Brazil’s Camargo Correa are reportedly carrying out the feasibility studies. A number of companies have already registered interest in the project, including Brazil’s Odebrecht, Mitsubishi; Chile’s Empresas Navieras; and Brazil’s Queiroz Galvão. The Transandino Central rail tunnel is being built in order to replace the existing pass between Chile and Argentina through the Andes, known as Los Libertadores. The tunnel is one of the few routes to transport cargo from Argentina to Chile; however, it is sorely inadequate for the job. The project will form part of the Corredor Bioceanico Aconcagua regional trade corridor, linking Chile’s Valparaiso port on the Pacific coast with Argentina’s Buenos Aires port on the Atlantic coast via rail. The trade corridor will eventually connect with Montevideo port in Uruguay, southern Brazil and Paraguay.Chile has been suffering the impact of the world recession but a reasonably strong recovery is now shaping up. According to our latest projections (which may differ from those in the previous section) the Chilean economy is set to grow by 3.7% a year over 2010-2014, an improvement on the 3.4% registered in the preceding five-year period of 2005-2009. In terms of specific transport modes, we maintain our main predictions this quarter. We have re-set our shipping forecasts to link them to future trade (which is more volatile than GDP). This helps capture what we see as the very sharp fall in shipping volumes in 2009. Rail freight is set to grow by an annual average of 4.1% in the forecast period, with planned infrastructure investments boding well for the longer term. We maintain an earlier reduction in our pipeline throughput projection for the next few years, in view of the continuing trans-Andean gas supply problems from Argentina, and Chile’s commitment to reduce its dependence on natural gas piped overland from the region in favour of greater use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) brought in by tankers from overseas suppliers. We expect average annual growth in freight turnover across all modes, measured in million tonne-kilometres, to be 6.1% in 2010-2014, faster than the preceding five-year period (averaging 4.1% a year). According to our latest estimates, transport and communications GDP fell by 0.6% in 2009, less steeply than GDP, which we see contracting by 1.2%. For the 2010-2014 period we expect the transport and communications sector to continue outpacing the economy. It will achieve average annual growth of 4.1%, versus 3.7% for overall GDP. The value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$21.4bn in nominal terms by 2014, or 8.2% of GDP. The sector employed an estimated 529,900 people, or 8.6% of the labour force, in 2008. We see this rising to 568,800, and 8.7% by 2014. In terms of freight carried, and looking to the 2010-2014 five-year forecast period as a whole, BMI’s view is that Chile’s fundamentally healthy and export-oriented economy will return to a stable growth path starting in 2010, helping the freight sector. We project freight carried will rise at an annual average of 6.1%, ahead of the economy as a whole (3.7%). Within this, maritime freight will lead (7.7% average annual growth), followed by airfreight (4.9% growth per annum), road (4.7%), rail freight (4.1%), and pipeline throughput (4.0%). Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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