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Hungary Tourism Report Q2 2010Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Feb. 9, 2010 - 60 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractTourism OverviewThe most recent tourism data, for the first nine months of 2009, show a reasonable increase in foreign visitor arrivals, including same-day visitors, of 3.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) to Hungary. Same-day visitors accounted for the majority of the increase, rising by nearly 4% y-o-y, while the number of foreign tourist arrivals (non-residents staying at least one night) rose by 1.8% y-o-y. What is impressive about the data is the favourable increase in arrivals (excluding same-day visitors) of 3.4% y-o-y in Q309, compared with growth of less than 1% y-o-y in the previous two quarters. There was a mixed picture regarding Hungary’s major source markets in the first three quarters of 2009. Foreign visitor arrivals from Romania and Serbia declined by 3.6% and 5.0% y-o-y respectively, but arrivals from Slovakia rose a by 15% y-o-y and the number of visitors from Austria and Germany increased marginally. Hospitality The latest recent hospitality sector data, for January-November 2009, show a significant downturn. The number of nights spent in all accommodation establishments declined by 8.5% y-o-y, with tourist nights by international visitors falling by just over 10% y-o-y. Nights by domestic residents fell slightly less, by 7% y-o-y. Tourist nights by German arrivals fell by about 10% y-o-y, while the number of British overnight visitors fell by 23% y-o-y, following additional major falls at the end of 2008. Interestingly, nights by arrivals from Austria increased by over 4% y-o-y, but nights by Italian and Polish tourists fell by approximately 3% y-o-y and 8% y-o-y respectively. The average occupancy rate of hotel rooms in the 11-month period was at 44.1%, down by about 11% y-o-y. Forecast Scenario Based on better than anticipated tourism figures for the first three quarters of 2009, especially Q309, we have raised our growth forecast for foreign tourist arrivals to 2% y-o-y for the year as a whole. Compared with the downturn in tourism in a number of other countries in the region, this would be a favourable outcome. Correspondingly, BMI expects growth in arrivals to accelerate slightly in 2010, although further weakness is anticipated in the long term. The short-term forecasts are based on mild economic recovery in key source markets, with the eurozone tentatively emerging from recession in 2010 and growth picking up to 1.7% in 2011. Following the sharp weakness of the Hungarian forint at the beginning of 2009, which helped the competitiveness of the tourism sector, the currency has since been broadly appreciating against the euro. Although the forint will remain susceptible to volatility over the coming quarters, we have nevertheless forecast further appreciation against the euro in the short term. Overall, we believe the exchange rate against the euro is unlikely to provide a stimulus for the tourism sector over the forecast period. Wizz Air Despite an industry downturn, Hungarian low-cost airline Wizz Air took 7.8mn passengers in 2009, with annual growth of 33%. Wizz Air took delivery of seven additional brand new aircraft in 2009, bringing the fleet to 28 Airbus A320s, and launched 40 new routes, resulting in a network covering 147 destinations. In March 2010, Wizz Air will enter the Latvian with three new routes taking off from Riga. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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