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Hungary Retail Report Q2 2010Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Feb. 9, 2010 - 52 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThe Q210 BMI Hungary Retail report forecasts that the country’s total retail sales will increase by more than 22% by 2014, growing from an estimated US$32.94bn in 2009 to US$40.33bn by 2014. Increased economic prosperity, despite the financial crisis, easier access to credit and the demand for premium products are principal factors behind retail market expansion, contributing to forecast annual retail sales growth of 3.6% in local currency terms between 2009 and 2014.Hungary’s nominal GDP in 2009 was US$135.75bn, with 2009’s decline of 6.4% expected to turn into growth of 0.1% in 2010 as the economy slowly begins to improve. Average annual GDP growth of just 1.1% is forecast between 2009 and 2014, with the rate recovering to an average 2.6% after 2010. Even though the population is forecast to decrease slightly, from 10.0mn in 2009 to 9.89mn by 2014, consumer spending per capita is predicted to rise by nearly 30%, to US$11,050, by the end of the forecast period. The demand for premium products and convenience are driving factors behind value growth across the Hungarian retail industry, with consumers increasingly viewing their purchases as status symbols. But local consumption patterns vary significantly according to income, with the average wage of US$14,321 in 2009 much lower than professional salaries. The government’s austerity programme, which has reduced consumer expenditure, also means that many consumers are extremely price-conscious. Hungary’s median population age is rising steadily, with the proportion of those aged 20-44, a key sector for retail sales, forecast to rise from 35.3% of the total in 2005 to 35.6% in 2010 by the UN Population Division. Retail sub-sectors that are likely to grow over the forecast period include furniture and household goods, worth an estimated US$6.76bn in 2009, based on data from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH). BMI forecasts sales in this sector rising to US$8.28bn by 2014. Sales of books and newspapers amounted to an estimated US$3.65bn in 2009 and are forecast to increase to US$4.47bn by the end of the forecast period. Sales of textiles, clothing and footwear, estimated at US$2.13bn in 2009, are predicted to grow to US$2.60bn by 2014. BMI data suggest that the consumer electronics sector will grow strongly over the forecast period, with sales rising from an estimated US$2.33bn in 2009 to US$2.71bn by 2014, an increase of more than 16%. However, automotives sales are forecast to decrease by 19%, from US$2.58bn in 2009 to US$2.at the end of the forecast period. Property experts forecast that about 450,000m2 of shopping centre space will be added to the Hungarian market between 2009 and 2012. Retail sales for the BMI universe of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in 2009 amounted to an estimated US$1,067bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’s macroeconomic database amounts to US$2,135bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland together accounted for an estimated 82% of regional retail sales in 2009, with their combined share expected to exceed 87% by 2014. For Hungary, the estimated 2009 market share of 3.1% is expected to fall to 2.0% by 2014. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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