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Argentina Freight Transport Report Q2 2010Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Jan. 26, 2010 - 63 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractIn November 2009, it was reported that Argentine toll road operator Autopistas del Sol (Ausol) was seeking to restructure its debt after facing difficulties meeting its financial commitments. The challenges faced by Ausol constituted a warning to other toll road operators in the country. Ausol had stated that it would submit a proposal to financial creditors in the hope of restructuring its financing, including a US$10mn interest payment that was due on November 23 2009, according to Diario Financiero Online. The company had reportedly hired Barclays as well as two legal firms to aid in the process. If the company was unable to resolve its financial situation by the end of 2009, it would have to declare itself bankrupt, according to America Economia. Ausol is owned by a consortium of companies led by Spain's Abertis, with a 31.59% stake, and also includes: Italy's Impregilo (19.82%); Sideco Americana (7%); Dragados' subsidiary Dycasa (5.83%); and, Spain's Actividades de Construcción y Servicios S.A. (ACS) (5.71%). The company was awarded the concession to operate and maintain the highway in 1996 and the contract runs to 2020.Although official data is somewhat suspect, we are now less pessimistic than in our previous quarterly report. We now estimate that GDP will have dropped by 0.2% in 2009 (less than the 1.0% previously predicted) and are projecting positive growth of 0.5% in 2010 (vs. a contraction of 0.9%). But growth will remain unimpressive. In 2011 we see a weak 1.5% growth, rising to 1.8% in 2012. Across our 2010-2014 forecast period we are projecting average annual GDP growth of 1.5%, implying a sharp slowdown on the 6.6% figure for the preceding five years. We maintain the main thrust of our mode-specific forecasts. The planned new gas pipeline to Bolivia has faced long delays. Air freight faces, at best, a slow recovery following the controversial re-nationalisation of Aerolineas Argentinas. We see the airline remaining loss-making for some years to come. Argentina’s aviation industry still seems to produce one or two bankruptcies every couple of years. We have also reined in our shipping forecasts. As a result of all these changes, our new overall freight carried forecast is for annual average growth of 1.6% in 2010-2014, measured in millions of tonnes per km (mntkm). This is a steep fall on the 6.0% figure 2005-2009, when Argentina was recovering from the deep economic crisis of 2001-2002. According to our latest estimates, transport and communications GDP will have grown by 0.2% in 2009, 0.4 percentage points (pp) more than overall GDP, which we project to have fallen by 0.2%. For the 2010-2014 forecast period we expect the transport and communications sector to outpace the economy as a whole. It will achieve average annual growth of 1.9% in value terms, versus 1.5% for overall GDP. The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$70.9bn in nominal terms by 2014, representing 9.9% of Argentina’s GDP. The transport and communications sector employed around 673,000 or 7.1% of the labour force, in 2009. We see the figure rising to 708,000 by 2014, although as a proportion of the labour force it will remain unchanged at 7.1%. The background to this rather disappointing outlook on the transport side is the global slowdown and the country’s subdued role as a grains, agricultural and livestock commodities exporter. The route to market will continue to be via road, rail (and in some cases river), to the main ports and then onwards by ship to the main export markets. Key export commodities will continue to be wheat, maize, sorghum, soya and beef. The world’s soya boom affected freight transport demand, with a growing requirement for shipment across the Pacific to China leading to rising interest in trans-Andean freight from Argentina to Chile’s Pacific ports. Road haulage will continue to be the dominant freight transport mode. Investment is still needed in both the highways network and truck fleets, but generally slower economic growth will ease bottlenecks. Over the forecast period annual average growth in road freight carried will be 1.7%, down from the 8.0% rate achieved over the preceding five years. BMI now forecasts 1.9% annual growth in rail freight over the next five years, with new investments helping to lift capacity. We are forecasting maritime traffic to grow by an annual average of 1.2%. This figure is lower because of the reduction in global shipping growth and gloomier prospects for agro industrial exports. We see pipeline throughput growing at 1.7% per annum (based on current pipeline development projects coming on-stream after delays), and inland waterways traffic, which has been starved of new investments, growing more slowly at 0.9% per annum. We see airfreight registering low growth rates, partly because much of Argentina’s international trade remains in the relatively higher bulk/low value pattern and is therefore not particularly suited for transport by air. We are forecasting average annual airfreight growth of 2.0% in the forecast period. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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