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Canada Telecommunications Report Q1 2010Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Jan. 28, 2010 - 90 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThis quarter, BMI has extended its forecasts for mobile, fixed-line and broadband internet subscriber growth to 2014. We have also taken the opportunity to slightly amend our expectations for 2009, taking into account the latest results of Canada’s key service providers and network operators. In the fourth quarter of 2009, we saw two of the country’s three national mobile network operators formally launch their jointly-developed HSPA/W-CDMA network well ahead of schedule. The launch was accompanied by the introduction of a number of new smartphones and similar internet-centric devices which the companies hope will encourage existing and potential new subscribers to sign up to their value-added service offerings. This should be a good source of revenue growth for the operators concerned, Bell Wireless and Telus Wireless, at a time when they are finally beginning to face increased competition. The third of the trio, Rogers Wireless, also spent the latter months of 2009 building its smartphone and value-added services portfolio.The first of the new entrants is the Globalive/Orascom Telecom partnership, Wind Mobile. The newcomer is focusing heavily on prepaid services, a move that has worked well for Orascom in the Middle East and Asia. However, BMI notes that Canadians have been reticent about switching to prepaid services, even at a time of economic uncertainty and, while we believe that Wind Mobile will certainly make a short-term impact, we wonder whether the prepaid focus will help Wind survive in the long term. Other new entrants, such as Public Mobile and DAVE Wireless, are beginning to roll out their networks and services; they, too, are to focus on the prepaid market, a strategy they might be forced to rethink in short order, given the lack of progress made in this field by the existing players. Stronger than expected mobile growth in Q309 has prompted us to revise upwards our expectations for 2009. We now believe there to have been almost 22.5mn mobile subscribers in total at the end of 2009. BMI anticipates the penetration rate reaching almost 67% in 2010 rising only minimally to 70% by 2014. The Canadian broadband market appears unaffected by the recession, and strong growth was recorded by most service providers in Q309, building on the commendable performance of the first half of the year. To an extent, this has been helped by the fact that there remains a considerable number of fixed lines in service as well as the mobile network operators’ reticence about extending coverage into underpopulated and less economically vibrant areas of the country. Nonetheless, pressure from mobiles is increasing as operators expand their mobile broadband services and offer faster download speeds. BMI points to the Q409 launch of the jointly-owned HSPA network of Bell and Telus as a new tool for those mobile operators to counter the threat of independent internet service providers. BMI forecasts for the Canadian broadband market, which have now been extended to 2014, envisage there being more than 14.3mn subscribers by the end of the period under analysis. The penetration rate will be 41% at that time. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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