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Spain Telecommunications Report Q1 2010Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Jan. 28, 2010 - 84 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractIn this updated report we have revised and extended our forecasts for Spain's mobile, fixed-line and broadband internet markets to 2014, utilising new and amended data from the key operators as well as the national regulatory authority, CMT. Essentially, the fixed-line market appears to be on the upturn as smaller alternative players outperform the incumbents; the broadband market is showing steady growth despite the decline in consumer spending; and the mobile market is proving more buoyant than expected due, in part, to continued interest in mobile broadband connectivity.About 3mn unregistered or out of date mobile customer accounts ought to have been terminated during Q409, at the regulator's direction, as part of a scheme to improve national security. The move should mainly affect the prepaid sector and should see a long overdue revision of the mobile subscriber numbers published by the two leading operators, Movistar and Vodafone. Full details were not available at the time of publication, so we do not yet have a clear idea how this will affect our forecasts. But, given the reported steady rate of new additions for the first nine months of 2009, this will only serve to bring greater clarity regarding future growth possibilities. Driven by 3G and mobile broadband usage, we now expect Spain's mobile operators to be serving 58.3mn subscribers by 2014. This would give a penetration rate of 120%. In the meantime, the youngest player, Yoigo, aims to capture a 10% market share, while cable operator Ono is thought to be considering bidding for new wireless spectrum, effectively creating a fifth player. Telefónica is also about to trial next generation LTE technology in Spain and other markets around the world with an eye to growing its mobile data business. New data from the operators and CMT suggest that the number of fixed lines is growing, making Spain one of the very few Western European markets to report positive growth at a time when traditional PSTN connections are being replaced by mobile phones. This development is closely linked to the fixed broadband market, where continued solid take-up of ADSL services and local loop unbundling by the incumbent and others means that there is still a need for copper lines. This trend will not last long, however, and by 2012 we expect to see fixed line numbers declining once more. BMI expects that fixed line penetration will have fallen back to 40% by 2014. The fixed broadband market grew steadily in the first nine months of 2009, but was held back by disappointing performances by Orange and Telefónica. Consequently, we have reined in our earlier forecasts for this field and now expect to see 9.6mn subscribers by 2009 (penetration of 20.5%), rising to 14.3mn by 2014 (29.4% penetration). Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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