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Ukraine Telecommunications Report Q1 2010Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Jan. 22, 2010 - 92 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractOur Q110 report on Ukraine’s telecommunications market has seen our forecasts for the fixed-line, mobile, internet and broadband sectors extended through to the end of 2014. Other than the extension our forecasts remain broadly similar with a steady expansion in the mobile market, stagnation in the fixedline sector and robust growth from broadband.The broadband sector is certainly the area that offers the most growth potential. The sector is underdeveloped having suffered from years of underinvestment from fixed-line incumbent Ukrtelecom. However, this has resulted in the incumbent having a relatively low market share which has created considerable opportunities for alternative internet service providers (ISPs) such as Vega, Volia Cable, Comstar-UTS and VimpelCom. Most network deployments are being concentrated on the major urban centres and this will be the main area of growth.The limited wireline infrastructure in the broadband market has also led to opportunities for wireless internet technologies such as CDMA and WiMAX. In line with this the mobile operators are extremely keen to get their hands on 3G UMTS licences but so far only Ukrtelecom’s mobile unit Utel possesses a licence. There have been several attempts to launch UMTS licence tenders, the latest of which was earmarked for November 2009. However, the tender was overturned by President Viktor Yushchenko over national security concerns. BMI is optimistic that a new tender could be launched in 2010 after the presidential elections, due in January 2010. Political infighting has also been one of the major obstacles to beginning the privatisation process of Ukrtelecom. Prime Minister Tymoshenko has iterated a desire to push through with the privatisation but President Yushchenko is allegedly stalling the move. Current opinion polls suggest that Yushchenko will be forced out in the elections which could pave the way for this very protracted privatisation to finally take place. The mobile market saw a return to growth in the third quarter of 2009, but the country’s subscriber base was still 261,000 customers lower than at the end of 2008. Ukraine’s deep economic recession has pushed consumers to tighten their belts and reduce their spending on telecommunications services. This has resulted in fewer gross additions and a higher rate of subscriber inactivity which has led to greater discounting of inactive prepaid SIMs. Nevertheless, we expect the market to have witnessed stronger growth in the final quarter of the year and have forecast the mobile subscriber base hitting almost 56.4mn with penetration reaching 122.9%. Over the remainder of our forecast period we anticipate a steady expansion of the sector with increasing emphasis being placed on attracting higher value subscribers suchas postpaid and mobile broadband customers. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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