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Southern Africa Telecommunications Report Q1 2010

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Jan. 22, 2010 - 65 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Southern Africa Telecommunications SWOT
Angola Business Environment SWOT
Botswana Business Environment SWOT
Mozambique Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment
Sub-Saharan Africa
Southern Africa
Table: Africa Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Macroeconomic Data
Table: Southern Africa Macroeconomic Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
Mobile
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts
Fixed Line
Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts
Internet
Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts
Market Data Analysis
Mobile
Angola
Table: Angola Mobile Market, Q309
Botswana
Table: Botswana Mobile Market, Q309
Mauritius
Table: Mauritius Mobile Market, Q309
Mozambique
Table: Mozambique Mobile Market, Q309
Fixed Line And Internet
Angola
Botswana
Mauritius
Mozambique
Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments
Table: Southern Africa Telecoms Regulators
Industry Developments
Angola
Botswana
Mauritius
Mozambique
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Table: Key Players: Southern Africa Telecoms Sector
Company Monitor
Ericsson Net Sales By Geographic Area
Ericsson Net Sales By Geographic Area
Ericsson's Position In The Global Handset Market, Unit Sales (mn)
Table: Ericsson Recent Contract Wins In MEA
Profiles
Unitel Angola
Mascom Botswana
Mauritius Telecom/Orange
mcel Mozambique
Appendix:
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
Fixed Line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Internet Use
Table: Regional Internet Use Penetration Overview
Macroeconomic Data Tables
Table: Angola - Economic Activity
Table: Botswana - Economic Activity
Table: Mozambique - Economic Activity
Table: Mauritius - Economic Activity
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Table: Ratings Indicators
Sources

Abstract

Angola, Botswana, Mauritius and Mozambique are a bunch of pretty diverse markets. As BMI has often pointed out before, they can be roughly grouped into the well-developed markets of Botswana and Mauritius, which have certain characteristics in common, and the less developed markets of Angola and Mozambique, which likewise have some characteristics in common. However, even these comparisons have many flaws.

The biggest movement within the Southern Africa report this quarter is the increase in our pessimism about Mauritius’ mobile market. BMI was none too optimistic on the subject last quarter, but with the slowing growth having finally developed into actual contraction for both operators, we have decided to change our forecasts to reflect a stagnating market even over the next five years. All competition appears to have left both operators, and there are no signs that the regulator is about to liven things up with a new operator or improved regulations to ensure effective competition.

Botswana’s growth is also slowing, but with its penetration continuing to climb, reaching approximately 99% at the end of June 2009, such slowing is absolutely natural and to be expected. For the level of penetration within the country, Botswana is still showing really very strong growth. It is also moving to take advantage of new international bandwidth provided by the SEACOM cable, by setting up connections through neighbouring countries. This should benefit the communications market as a whole and the broadband market in particular. As across Africa, Botswana’s broadband market is very much in its nascent stages, but with the good levels of education and infrastructure in the country, it has better potential to grow sooner than many others.

Angola, usually the fastest grower in our Southern Africa report, has had a slight blip in Q209 that has seen Mozambique outperform it. Angola’s mobile subscribers only expanded by 2.9% during the quarter, whereas Mozambique saw a 7.8% growth in its mobile market. In fact, in a quarter in which many mobile markets have seen some unfortunate trends on growth rates and ARPUs, things have looked pretty good for Mozambique, usually something of an underperformer thanks to its poor infrastructure and general poverty. Vodacom’s ARPUs, already about as low as they could go, actually improved.

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