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Nigeria Telecommunications Report Q1 2010Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Jan. 22, 2010 - 77 Pages Table of Contents
Abstract2009 is clearly not going to be a year of spectacular growth for the Nigerian mobile market the way that 2008 was. The market is still growing with some considerable momentum, but the rate at which it is doing this slowed noticeable at the start of the year and has not yet recovered. BMI is expecting there to be just under 74mn mobile subscribers in the country by the end of 2009. This will signify annual net additions of around half the 22.6mn that were added during 2008.2009 has been a trying year for most businesses, no matter where they are or what they do. Consumer confidence has been reduced, fewer people are taking up mobile services for the first time, and more marginal subscribers may be letting their mobile use stop all together. It is highly likely that growth will pick up a bit in 2010, but annual net additions will probably never top 20mn again. One of the reasons for the poor growth performance in the first half of 2009 was Zain, which reported subscriber losses in both quarters. More recently, Zain has been suffering from uncertainty over its future which can have been doing it no favours, but in its Q109 and H109 reports, the Kuwaiti company has blamed its declining subscriber figures on adjustments in the reporting of inactive SIMs. This should mean that the decline is a temporary thing, and the operator should see a return to growth soon. This being said, Q309 will probably be the quarter in which the company is worst hit by the doubts that have been circulating around it, so it may be that its return to growth will not at first be very strong. Q309 has seen something of an upset for CDMA. Numbers have gone down for the CDMA segment as a whole in both mobile and fixed wireless. In fixed wireless, some operators are still showing growth, but an increasing number appear to be struggling to remain in business. 2010 will probably see the consolidation that Starcomms predicted for 2009, because this number of small CDMA players cannot be maintained. Another interesting factor for 2009 will be the continuing development of broadband. With Glo launching its fibre-to-the-home service, and getting ready to switch on the Glo-1 submarine cable, there is a feeling that significant developments are afoot. BMI would urge caution, however, that, in this difficult, almost newborn market, rapid development can easily be overstated. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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