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Algeria Infrastructure Report 2010Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Jan. 13, 2010 - 50 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractLike many countries around the world, Algeria’s construction industry has been adversely affected by the global economic downturn. We estimate that the sector saw real growth of 3.2% in 2009, down from 7.0% in 2008 and 16.6% in 2007. However, the fact that the sector has managed to retain positive growth marks it out from many other countries, which have experienced severe recessions in construction output over the last year.This positive performance is based on the resilience of the country’s wider economy, which has been supported by stronger government spending. Indeed, we estimate that Algeria’s economy actually registered stronger real growth in 2009 than it did in 2008, which contradicts the global trend. Substantial government spending - part-funded by deficit spending, but also helped by a strong bounce in energy prices in H109 - has put a floor under construction activity across key infrastructure sectors. According to our estimates, government capital investment in Algeria rose from US$20.51bn in 2007 to US$35.67bn in 2008 and will rise to US$36.89bn in 2010. With the global economy likely to continue recovering from the H109 trough in 2010 (according to our core scenario), Algeria’s construction industry should continue to benefit both from strong government investment - which we foresee rising again, this time to US$41.65bn - as well as a return to higher levels of private foreign investment. Against this backdrop, we predict that Algeria’s construction sector will experience real growth of over 7% in both 2010 and 2011, before adjusting to a more moderate growth rate in 2012-2014. Algeria sits at the top of the regional rankings in our newly updated Business Environment table. The country scores well for both the Infrastructure Market and Country Risk variables. For our Project Finance Risk Ratings, the country again does well. It is placed second out of nine countries in the region for Design and Construction, and in first place for Commissioning and Operating. Overall, this leaves Algeria at the top of the regional Project Finance Risk Ratings. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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