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United Arab Emirates Freight Transport Report Q1 2010Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Jan. 13, 2010 - 57 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThe Middle East's largest fuel hub, the port of Fujairah in the UAE, said in mid-November that it would abide by the Emirates' commitment to the International Maritime Organization (IMO)'s single hull 2010 phase out and that from January 2010, single hull tankers would not be permitted to enter the port of Fujairah or anchor off it. The port is a major hub for tankers receiving cargo from oil producers in the Middle East, which is then transported to Asian markets and via the Atlantic to the US. The port is also used as a refuelling area and facilities are also available for cleaning tanks. The UAE confirmed its commitment to the IMO's 2010 phase out in September 2008, with Port World News at the time quoting Badreya Ahmed Al Dhahri, the director of the marine affairs department at the national transport authority, as stating 'we are streamlining our regulations and we have made it clear that no single hull tankers will be allowed to trade in the UAE after the 2010 deadline'. Regulation passed by the IMO requires tanker operators from member states to withdraw single-hulled carriers from operation by the end of 2010. Ships constructed with a double bottom and single sides are permitted to continue trading until 2015. BMI believes that the removal of the port of Fujairah from the facilities list of where tankers with single hulls can pull in could further increase the scrapping of these tankers.Since our last report, we have revised our macroeconomic forecast for UAE. We now estimate the contraction in 2009 at 2.9% and now project 2010 growth of only 2.8%, with 2011 at 5.2%. For the 2010- 2014 period as a whole, we expect GDP growth to reach an annual average of 4.7%, down from 4.9% in the preceding five-year period. The effect on our freight-traffic forecasts across the two periods is therefore slightly negative, although offset by continuing strong investment in transport infrastructure. Although the UAE has developed a sophisticated infrastructure and its economy generates significant wealth, the country is reticent about providing official statistics. This is apparent in the dearth of published material on the freight-transport sector and BMI forecasts are based on very limited information. That said, we are predicting faster-than-GDP rates of expansion for freight carried by air, sea, and road. Despite the 2006 controversy over its role in the US and debt problems in 2009, the globalisation of DP World should still drive higher growth in maritime freight. The net result of these and a few other small adjustments is that we now expect freight carried growth across all modes, measured in mntkm, to average 5.2% per annum over the 2010-2014 forecast period. According to our latest estimates, transport and communications GDP fell by 2.2% in 2009, 0.7 percentage points less sharply than overall GDP, which we estimate to have contracted by 2.9%. For the 2010-2014 forecast period, we expect the transport and communications sector to continue outpacing the economy as a whole in value terms. It will achieve average annual growth of 4.8%, versus 4.7% for overall GDP. The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$24.8bn in nominal terms by 2014, representing 6.8% of the UAE’s GDP. The UAE economy is relatively dynamic and is now more diversified and shows evidence of robustness to withstand external shocks. Strong investment in transport infrastructure and the global ambitions of companies like Emirates and DPW will be positive factors. By transport modes, we expect the fastestgrowing in the 2010-2014 forecast period to be air, with an annual average of 8.2% growth in freight carried, followed by shipping at 5.6%, pipeline throughput at 5.2%, and road haulage at 4.9% per annum. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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