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Published by: Business Monitor International
Published: Jan. 12, 2010 - 101 Pages
Table of Contents
- Executive Summary
- SWOT Analysis
- Italy Mobile SWOT
- Italy Wireline Market SWOT
- Italy Political SWOT
- Italy Economic SWOT
- Business Environment
- Western Europe
- Italy
- Table: Western Europe Business Environment Rankings
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Mobile
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2007-2014
- Fixed Line
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2007-2014
- Internet
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2007-2014
- Market Data Analysis
- Mobile
- Table: Italy Mobile Market, Q309
- Table: Italy Mobile Market, Net Additions, Q309
- Subscriber Divisions
- ARPU
- Table: Italian MVNOs
- 3G
- Mobile Contract Wins
- Table: Mobile Contract Wins
- Mobile Content
- Regional Outlook
- Importance Of SMS Waning
- Mobile Portals
- Smartphones
- Mobile Broadband
- Country Outlook
- SMS
- HSDPA And HSUPA
- LTE
- Value-Added Services Timeline
- Table: Selected VAS Services
- Mobile Operator Data
- Table: Italy Mobile Market Overview
- Telecom Italia
- Table: Vodafone
- Table: WIND
- Table: 3 Italia
- Fixed Line
- Table: Italian Fixed-Line Market, Q308-Q309
- Local Loop Unbundling (LLU)
- Table: Telecom Italia OLO Accesses, Q308-Q309
- VoIP
- Functional Separation
- Broadband
- Table: Italian Broadband Market, Q308-Q309
- Alternative Broadband Operators
- Broadband Infrastructure
- WiMAX
- Table: Wireline Developments
- Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments
- Italy: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
- Legislation And Market Liberalisation
- Licensing And Spectrum
- Industry Developments
- Telecom Italia Fined EUR600,000
- Tiscali Sells UK Unit To Carphone Warehouse
- WIND Looking To Restructure Debts
- 3G Frequencies Awarded
- Telecom Italia Sees Further Pressure To Spin-off Network
- Competitive Landscape
- Key Players
- Table: Key Players - Italy Telecoms Sector
- Table: Selected Operators - Financial Indicators, 2006-2008 (US$mn)
- Company Monitor
- Table: Huawei Financial Performance, 2004-2008
- Table: Huawei Recent Contract Wins In Western Europe
- Profiles
- Appendix:
- Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
- Fixed Line
- Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
- Mobile
- Mobile
- Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
- Broadband
- Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
- Country Snapshot: Italy Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012
- Glossary Of Terms
- Table: Glossary Of Terms
- BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
- Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators
- Table: Ratings Indicators
- Sources
AbstractBMI has revised and extended its forecasts for the Italian mobile, fixed-line and internet/broadband markets in this update. These take into account new data regarding the slowdown in fixed-line usage, a slowdown in broadband take-up and the continuing efforts by market leaders Telecom Italia and Vodafone to rid themselves of inactive prepaid customers.
The situation in the mobile sector has been gathering momentum since Telecom Italia first began to clean up its databases in Q108. Vodafone joined the fray at the beginning of 2009 and, in the first nine months of the year, subscriber numbers fell by 2.6%. BMI now expects user numbers to have fallen by 3.1% in 2009 as a whole, reducing mobile penetration to 137%. We expect that this process will continue into 2010 and beyond, especially now that the market leaders are focusing on growth of premium postpaid customers and improving the range and quality of value-added services those customers may consume.
Their strategies appear to be working; even as prepaid numbers fall, so the number of postpaid customers is growing at both companies, though not at rates strong enough to offset the decline in prepaid. Should the country's other two operators - WIND and 3 Italia - also engage in discounting activities, so the rate of decline will be very much sharper, especially at 3 which is thought to have a very high number of inactive users. However, it is by no means certain that they will do so, and our newly revised forecasts assume that this will not happen, at least not to a significant degree.
As regards broadband, unusually weak growth in service take-up is characterising the sector, possibly due to reduced customer spending associated with the effects of the economic downturn, but maybe also due to saturation in urban markets and competition from mobile broadband services, particularly in the 3G arena where reported subscriber numbers ballooned by 12.6% in the first nine months of 2009. BMI has revised downwards its forecast broadband market figures in light of these developments. We now expect there will be 18.8mn broadband subscribers by 2014. Growth potential may be handicapped by a reluctance by key operators to deploy infrastructure in rural and sparsely populated areas as a result of current financial constraints. That said, network sharing agreements - such as the one signed between Fastweb and WIND in August 2009 - could yet allow us to view the coming five-year period with more optimism. We shall await with interest future subscriber figure reports from these companies.
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