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Italy Telecommunications Report Q1 2010

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Jan. 12, 2010 - 101 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Italy Mobile SWOT
Italy Wireline Market SWOT
Italy Political SWOT
Italy Economic SWOT
Business Environment
Western Europe
Italy
Table: Western Europe Business Environment Rankings
Industry Forecast Scenario
Mobile
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2007-2014
Fixed Line
Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2007-2014
Internet
Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2007-2014
Market Data Analysis
Mobile
Table: Italy Mobile Market, Q309
Table: Italy Mobile Market, Net Additions, Q309
Subscriber Divisions
ARPU
Table: Italian MVNOs
3G
Mobile Contract Wins
Table: Mobile Contract Wins
Mobile Content
Regional Outlook
Importance Of SMS Waning
Mobile Portals
Smartphones
Mobile Broadband
Country Outlook
SMS
HSDPA And HSUPA
LTE
Value-Added Services Timeline
Table: Selected VAS Services
Mobile Operator Data
Table: Italy Mobile Market Overview
Telecom Italia
Table: Vodafone
Table: WIND
Table: 3 Italia
Fixed Line
Table: Italian Fixed-Line Market, Q308-Q309
Local Loop Unbundling (LLU)
Table: Telecom Italia OLO Accesses, Q308-Q309
VoIP
Functional Separation
Broadband
Table: Italian Broadband Market, Q308-Q309
Alternative Broadband Operators
Broadband Infrastructure
WiMAX
Table: Wireline Developments
Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments
Italy: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
Legislation And Market Liberalisation
Licensing And Spectrum
Industry Developments
Telecom Italia Fined EUR600,000
Tiscali Sells UK Unit To Carphone Warehouse
WIND Looking To Restructure Debts
3G Frequencies Awarded
Telecom Italia Sees Further Pressure To Spin-off Network
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Table: Key Players - Italy Telecoms Sector
Table: Selected Operators - Financial Indicators, 2006-2008 (US$mn)
Company Monitor
Table: Huawei Financial Performance, 2004-2008
Table: Huawei Recent Contract Wins In Western Europe
Profiles
Appendix:
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
Fixed Line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Mobile
Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Broadband
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Country Snapshot: Italy Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Table: Ratings Indicators
Sources

Abstract

BMI has revised and extended its forecasts for the Italian mobile, fixed-line and internet/broadband markets in this update. These take into account new data regarding the slowdown in fixed-line usage, a slowdown in broadband take-up and the continuing efforts by market leaders Telecom Italia and Vodafone to rid themselves of inactive prepaid customers.

The situation in the mobile sector has been gathering momentum since Telecom Italia first began to clean up its databases in Q108. Vodafone joined the fray at the beginning of 2009 and, in the first nine months of the year, subscriber numbers fell by 2.6%. BMI now expects user numbers to have fallen by 3.1% in 2009 as a whole, reducing mobile penetration to 137%. We expect that this process will continue into 2010 and beyond, especially now that the market leaders are focusing on growth of premium postpaid customers and improving the range and quality of value-added services those customers may consume.

Their strategies appear to be working; even as prepaid numbers fall, so the number of postpaid customers is growing at both companies, though not at rates strong enough to offset the decline in prepaid. Should the country's other two operators - WIND and 3 Italia - also engage in discounting activities, so the rate of decline will be very much sharper, especially at 3 which is thought to have a very high number of inactive users. However, it is by no means certain that they will do so, and our newly revised forecasts assume that this will not happen, at least not to a significant degree.

As regards broadband, unusually weak growth in service take-up is characterising the sector, possibly due to reduced customer spending associated with the effects of the economic downturn, but maybe also due to saturation in urban markets and competition from mobile broadband services, particularly in the 3G arena where reported subscriber numbers ballooned by 12.6% in the first nine months of 2009. BMI has revised downwards its forecast broadband market figures in light of these developments. We now expect there will be 18.8mn broadband subscribers by 2014. Growth potential may be handicapped by a reluctance by key operators to deploy infrastructure in rural and sparsely populated areas as a result of current financial constraints. That said, network sharing agreements - such as the one signed between Fastweb and WIND in August 2009 - could yet allow us to view the coming five-year period with more optimism. We shall await with interest future subscriber figure reports from these companies.

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