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France Telecommunications Report Q1 2010

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Jan. 12, 2010 - 90 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
France Mobile Business Environment SWOT
France Wireline Business Environment SWOT
France Political SWOT
France Economic SWOT
Business Environment Analysis
Western Europe
France
Table: Western Europe Business Environment Rankings
Industry Forecast Scenario
Mobile
Table: France Telecom Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2007-2014
Fixed Line
Table: France Telecom Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2003-2014
Internet
Table: France Telecom Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2007-2014
Market Data Analysis
Mobile
Table: France Mobile Market, Q309
Table: France Mobile Market Net Additions, Q109-Q309
Subscriber Mix
Table: French Mobile Network Operator Subscriber Mix, Q309
ARPU
Table: French Mobile Market Blended ARPU, Q208-Q408
3G
Mobile Contract Wins
Table: France Mobile Contract Wins
Mobile Content
Regional Overview
Importance of SMS Waning
Mobile Portals
Smartphones
Mobile Broadband
Country Focus
Orange Broadband Subscribers (000)
VAS Timeline
Table: VAS Timeline
Mobile Data
Table: France Mobile Market Overview
Table: Orange
Table: SFR
Table: Bouygues
Table: MVNO
Fixed Line
Table: French Fixed-Line Market, Q208-Q209
Table: French Fixed-Line Market, 2004-2008
France Télécom Subscriber Base (mn)
ARPU
Local Loop Unbundling
Functional Separation
Internet
Table: French Internet Market, Q208-Q209
France Télécom Internet Connections (000)
The Broadband ‘Box’
ARPU
Broadband Technologies
DSL
WiMAX
Fibre-Optic
France Telecom FTTH
Table: Wireline Developments
Regulatory Environment
Table: Division Of Regulatory Responsibilities In France
Background And Regulatory Bodies
Competition
Regulatory Developments
Competitive Landscape
Market Overview
Table: Key Players - France Telecoms Sector
Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators, 2005-2008
Company Monitor
Huawei Financial Performance, 2004-2008
Table: Huawei Recent Contract Wins in Western Europe
Operator Profiles
Appendix
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
Fixed Line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Broadband
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Country Snapshot: France Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2000-2005
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Table: Ratings Indicators
Sources

Abstract

The French telecommunications market continues to be relatively unaffected by the ongoing economic downturn, with the mobile and broadband markets seeing upward growth, albeit slower in some areas than in previous quarters. Whether this should be attributed to the usual Q3 slowdown - as customers prepare for the pre- and post-Christmas sales usually seen in the fourth quarter of the year - or whether the broader economic situation is finally beginning to impact on service take-up and usage remains to be seen.

In the mobile arena, blended ARPUs continue to fall, though less rapidly than before. This, it would seem, is due to the increased consumption of value-added services such as data and mobile internet. Results from market leaders Orange and SFR show that the proportion of mobile data services within their overall service revenues grew again in Q309, and this is helping to offset declines in voice ARPUs. The buoyancy of the French mobile market is again attributed to the heavy usage of postpaid services, with customers increasingly being tempted with a broad range of smartphones, in particular Apple's iPhone. SFR sold 500,000 iPhones to its subscribers by November 2009 and aims for sales of 600,000 by the end of the year.

The deadline for the submission of bids for France's fourth 3G licence passed with only one formal submission being presented to the authorities. Not unexpectedly, this came from broadband operator Iliad. The authorities seem keen to fast-track the licensing process, and France’sfourth mobile network operator was confirmed before the end of 2009. This could provide a fresh impetus for competitive pricing and service bundling, although BMI considers it unlikely that the new player will be able to make much of an impact before the end of 2010. In the meantime, there is still the possibility that the licensing process will be derailed or at least set back by legal challenges from other 3G licensees, incensed at the low price asked for the new licence.

Although Q309 data had not yet been published by ARCEP at the time of writing, BMI observes that the broadband market slowed its growth trajectory during the quarter, with a lacklustre showing recorded by the incumbent, slightly offset by strong performances by rivals such as Iliad and SFR. As in previous quarters, growth is being driven by usage of value-added services such as VoIP and IPTV. The switch to broadband means that the number of traditional PSTN/ISDN connections is declining, but in Q309 this rate of decline slowed markedly and we have had to revise slightly our forecasts for this area of the market. We have also had to rein in our forecasts for broadband subscribers and 3G users, again due to the slower than expected growth in the first three quarters of 2009.

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