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United Kingdom Freight Transport Report 2010Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Jan. 7, 2010 - 46 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractAirfreight through UK airports recorded its first year on year (y-o-y) increase in 14 months, according to airport operator, BAA, in November. Figures released by BAA showed that the UK's total cargo reached 148,897 metric tonnes in October 2009, a y-o-y growth of 1.5%. Airfreight through BAA's portfolio of airports in the London area was up by 0.7% y-o-y to 146,288 metric tonnes. Stansted Airport, recorded the largest cargo increase of 2.9% y-o-y, while Heathrow Airport’s cargo increased by 0.9%. Gatwick Airport's fell by 8%. BAA's other English airport operation, Southampton, posted an airfreight decline of 5.6% y-o-y. It should be noted that despite indications that airfreight in the UK is starting to recover from the downturn, the country's year-to-date figures were still down 13.1% y-o-y for the January-October 2009 period. A BAA spokesperson warned: 'We are also comparing with last October, when traffic was already down,' as quoted by International Freighting Weekly (IFW). Positive air freight figures for the whole of Europe seem to be some way off, but the region appears to be emerging from the trough. In September 2009, International Air Transport Association (IATA) posted its third consecutive month , where cargo volumes have not declined month on month (m-o-m).Since our last report, we have adjusted our UK GDP outlook downwards. We now estimate the contraction in 2009 at a sharp and deep 4.7%. We see the economy recovering weakly (+0.8%) in 2010, and gathering a little more pace in 2011 (+2.8%). As a result of this, we are now expecting average annual GDP growth of 2.6% for the 2010-2014 period. As for the freight sector, we maintain the earlier adjustments of our projections for pipeline throughout, as new gas pumping capacity comes onstream. We have edged up our rail freight projections as investment begins to feed through, but edged down airfreight because of continuing airport congestion and the downturn in the global industry. Shipping was also hit by a tough international climate and will emerge slowly from the recession. Overall, our projection for average annual growth in freight carried in 2010-2014 is now 1.5%, expressed in million tonnes/km (mntkm). This is in keeping with the UK’s status as a developed transport economy, given that the pattern is for freight growth to lag behind GDP. According to our latest estimates, the transport and communications sector contracted by 4.4% in 2009, 0.3pps less steeply than overall GDP, which we estimate to have fallen by 4.7%. For the 2010-2014 forecast period, we expect the transport and communications sector to grow on a par with the economy as a whole at 2.6% per annum. The total value of the transport and communications sector will rise to US$215.7bn in nominal terms by 2014, representing 7.4% of the UK’s GDP. We forecast that the UK’s macroeconomic growth will be muted and only partially supportive of the freight transport sector throughout the forecast period. By transport mode, we expect airfreight to be the fastest growing, reflecting the continuing spread of low-cost carriers and a reasonably dynamic freight trend. We project average annual airfreight growth of 3.5% in 2010-2014. In second place will come rail freight with average annual growth of 2.8%, followed by sea cargo (2.6%) and road haulage (0.5%). Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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