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Italy Freight Transport Report 2010Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Jan. 6, 2010 - 45 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractItalian flag carrier Alitalia, reported its first operating profit on November 5 2009, since its takeover by an alliance of Italian business interests, French news agency, Agent France-Presse (AFP) said. The airline said operating earnings in the third quarter came to EUR15mn (US$22mn) after showing losses in the previous two quarters. Sales came to EUR838mn in the July to September period, during which Alitalia carried 6.3mn passengers on flights that were on average 74% full, compared with 51% in the first quarter and 65% in the second. The carrier's share rose to 53% of the Italian domestic market from 51% in the first half of the year and to 20% of the international sector from 19%. Alitalia, after struggling financially, merged with Italy's number two carrier Air One and began operating in its new form on January 13. In the first nine months of the year it sustained an operating loss of EUR258mn.Our forecast for Italy’s freight transport sector has to take in to account the impact of the global economic slowdown and what we see, as Italy’s slow emergence from recession. We are estimating a 4.5% GDP contraction in 2009, and a flat economy (+0.7%) in 2010. We expect GDP growth to average 1.5% per annum in the 2010-2014 period, compared with a negative 0.2% in the preceding five years. Additionally, when looking at the freight sector by transport mode, a number of continuing issues need to be considered. Most important is that the government has an outsized fiscal deficit, which it must bring under control. The short-term consequence is that public-sector spending on road and rail maintenance remains constrained. In the airfreight sector, the ‘old Alitalia’ has, after a five-year death agony, finally been declared bankrupt. This is a positive, since the ‘new Alitalia’, a private sector rescue operation, may deliver reasonable growth. Bearing these factors in mind we are now forecasting that freight traffic, measured in million tonne-kilometres (mntkm), will grow by an average of 1.6% in 2010-2014. According to our latest estimates, the transport and communications sector contracted by 4.3% in 2009, in an economy that plunged a little more steeply (down 4.5%). For the 2010-2014 forecast period we expect the transport and communications sector to grow on a par with the economy as a whole . It will achieve average annual growth of 1.5%. The total value of the transport and communications sector will rise to US$181.7bn in nominal terms by 2014, representing 8.2% of Italy’s GDP. We believe road freight transport will retain its dominance throughout the forecast period, although air, sea and rail freight will also make their contributions to overall growth. Road haulage should grow at a 1.5% annual rate to reach to 205.29 billion tonne kilometres (bntkm) by 2014, thereby maintaining its dominance of the total market. Rail freight will also eventually benefit from infrastructure improvements, and will grow by a marginally slower annual average of 1.3%, to reach 24.9bntkm by 2014. Measured in tonnage terms, sea freight should rise by 0.8% each year on average, while airfreight should increase by 1.8% a year. Pipeline throughput will be the fastest growing, with an annual average of 2.0%. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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