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Germany Freight Transport Report 2010Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Jan. 6, 2010 - 54 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThe construction of a third terminal at Frankfurt Airport airport was expected to be delayed by German transport company, Fraport AG, which also operates the airport, reported German daily Die Welt, as cited by Bloomberg in early September. Passenger numbers at the airport had been falling, according to the news source. Work on the terminal was scheduled to be completed in 2013, but the start date had now been pushed back until 2011/2012. The news came just days after the expansion project at the airport, obtained high court approval from the Hesse Administrative Court. The EUR4bn project includes adding; a fourth runway, a third terminal and expanding the cargo and maintenance centres. The runway is still due to be completed in 2011 and it does not appear that this will be changed by the decision. Despite falling passenger numbers in the preceding months, according to, Fraport forecasts, passenger numbers will reach 88.3mn by 2020. Associated France-Presse (AFP) noted that, in 2008, the airport served 53.5mn passengers.BMI estimates that the German economy plunged severely in 2009, with GDP falling by 4.8%. 2010 should see a subdued recovery with growth of 1.0%. We are forecasting slow growth for the German economy over the next five years, with annual GDP expansion averaging around 1.6%. BMI expects that freight traffic will expand a little more slowly than this, at around 1.5%. In the longer term we believe, however, that freight traffic for some periods may outpace the wider economy, reflecting changes in production methods, as a result of which component parts travel further and more frequently as they are assembled, stored and ultimately distributed to the customers. For the forecast period, road haulage will rise by an average of 1.5% per annum in 2010-2014, with 3.8% contraction estimated in 2009, but year-on-year (y-o-y) growth returning in subsequent years. Rail freight traffic will grow by an average of 1.4% per annum in the forecast period, gathering pace in the later years. This will result from government policy encouraging its use as an alternative to road, the deregulation of the system favouring private operators and what we expect will be quite an aggressive pursuit of wider European freight business by the leading operator DB Cargo. Inland waterway freight traffic growth will average 1.0% each year in 2010-2014, trailing behind GDP. While the potential for growth for this transport mode remains high, we believe it will be held back during the forecast period due to capacity limitations. After 2002, the number of low-cost carriers (LCCs) in the aviation sector increased dramatically, putting pressure on the national flag-carrier Lufthansa. Following a sharp drop in 2009 we see airfreight growing moderately over the forecast period, rising by an annual average of 1.6%. Although controversial in diplomatic terms, the North European Gas Pipeline (NEGP) bringing in natural gas from Russia should give a boost to throughput from 2010 onwards. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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