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Next Generation Biofuels: Market drivers, growth opportunities and regulatory change

Published by: Business Insights

Published: Jan. 1, 2010 - 190 Pages


Table of Contents


Next Generation Biofuels
Executive summary
What are biofuels?
Next generation biofuels
Industry forecasts for biofuels
Biofuels drivers and inhibitors
The biofuels economy
Biofuels market size and forecasts
Biofuels policies and regulations
Chapter 1 Introduction
Audience
How to read this report
Chapter 2 What are biofuels?
Summary
World energy demand
Climate change
Renewable energy
Biomass
What is biomass?
Population, energy consumption and biomass
Regional resources
What are biofuels?
Solid biofuels
Liquid biofuels
Gas biofuels
Biofuels in current use
Ethanol
Distribution, storage and blending
End-use
Biodiesel
Distribution, storage, blending
End-use
Chapter 3 Next generation - advanced biofuels
Summary
Introduction
Second generation biofuels
Second generation biofuels under development
Biohydrogen
BioDME
Biomethanol
Butonal and Isobutanol
Dimethylfuran (DMF)
Hydro Thermal Upgrading (HTU) diesel
Fischer-Tropsch fuels
Bioconversion of biomass to mixed alcohol fuels
Wood diesel
Key players in second generation biofuels
Market possibilities for second generation biofuels
Third generation biofuel
Algae fuel
Background
Limitations of previous biofuels
Algae types
Algae cultivation
Photo-bioreactors
Closed loop systems
Open pond systems
Algae fuel potential
Development timeline
Aircraft biofuels testing
Key players for third generation biofuel
Market possibilities for algae biofuel
Chapter 4 Forecasts for biofuels
Summary
Introduction
Economic competitiveness of biofuels and biomass
Biofuels technology development
Biofuels drivers and inhibitors
Chapter conclusion
Chapter 5 Biofuels drivers and inhibitors
Summary
Market background
Drivers of the biofuels market
Greenhouse gases and environmental concerns
Regulatory incentives/pressure
Concern about energy security
Rising cost of existing fuel supplies
Consumer pressure
Inhibitors of the biofuels market
The biofuels economy
Sustainability concerns and the rising price of food crops
Limited biofuels infrastructure
Biomass and land availability
Chapter 6 The biofuels economy
Summary
Introduction
American market
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
Biofuels new direction away from corn-based ethanol
The biofuels economy
Production costs
Cost of distribution
Cost at filling station
Third generation algae fuel costs
Algae fuel leading players costs comparison
Transport fuel blends
Car costs and fuel efficiency
Chapter conclusion
Chapter 7 Biofuels market size and forecasts
Summary
Worldwide energy demand
Biofuels market sizing
Worldwide
Ethanol
Biodiesel
Europe
Ethanol
Biodiesel
US
Ethanol
Biodiesel
Brazil
Ethanol
Biodiesel
India
India’s fuel economy
Ethanol
Biodiesel
China
China’s fuel economy
Ethanol
Biodiesel
China working with the US for biofuels development
Chapter 8 Biofuels policies and regulations
Summary
Introduction
Policy frameworks
Renewable energy targets
Kyoto Protocol
European Union
US
Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)
Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)
Developing nations
Biofuels targets
Biofuels policy overview by region
The European Union
Biofuels Directive
Directive 2003/96/EC
Incentives for biofuels
Tax incentives
The United States
US Energy Policy Act 2005
Brazil
Proalcool Program
India
Biodiesel policy
Bioethanol policy
China
National Biomass Ethanol Gasoline Project
The Renewable Energy Law of the People’s Republic of China
Chapter conclusion
Report conclusion
Abbreviations
Energy content and conversion rates
Index
List of Figures
Figure 2.1: World renewable energy, 2008
Figure 2.2: Current and predicted EU biomass resources (Mtoe/y)
Figure 2.3: Current and potential US biomass resources (Million dry tonnes/y), 2005
Figure 2.4: Potential power generation from biomass among ASEAN countries (MW)
Figure 2.5: Breakdown of currently available biomass in China by type
Figure 2.6: Maximum regional bioenergy production potential, 2050
Figure 2.7: Typical oil extraction from 100kg of oil seeds (kg)
Figure 3.8: Global biosphere, 1998
Figure 3.9: Biofuels time period to availability (years), 2009
Figure 3.10: Cushing, OK WTI Oil Spot Price FOB prices (Dollars per Barrel), 1986-2009
Figure 4.11: Relative competitiveness of alternative energies in five years, 2009
Figure 4.12: Relative economic competitiveness of biofuels now and in the next five years, 2009
Figure 4.13: What proportion of global fuel production will biofuels account for by 2020?
Figure 4.14: Within how long will biofuels account for the primary source of global fuel production?
Figure 4.15: Which regions will lead the development of biofuels over the next five years?
Figure 4.16: How important will the following factors be in driving the biofuels market over the next five years?
Figure 4.17: How important will the following factors be in inhibiting the biofuels market over the next five years?
Figure 4.18: Biofuels impact on global food crop prices, 2009
Figure 5.19: Projected world energy demand to 2030 (Mtoe)
Figure 5.20: Growth in energy demand by region (2000-2030)
Figure 5.21: Projected worldwide oil consumption (million barrels per day), 2005-2025
Figure 5.22: Average annual oil price (US$ per barrel), 2008
Figure 5.23: Opting for green energy is one behavioural aspect of rising environmental attitudes
Figure 5.24: The potential biomass availability of EU15, AC10 and/or Europe according to five studies (left part of the figure)
Figure 6.25: Cost of distribution and dispensation of various fuels from a central production facility to a filling station (€/GJ)
Figure 6.26: Costs of various biofuels at the filling station using existing technology (2004)
Figure 6.27: An algae production process, 2009
Figure 6.28: Algal fuel capacity projections 2009-2014, 2009
Figure 6.29: Gasoline ethanol (kpa/%v/v), 2008
Figure 6.30: Car costs (€) and fuel efficiencies (km/GJ of fuel) of passenger cars by fuel and engine system
Figure 7.31: Worldwide biofuels fuel production volume (billion liters), 2008
Figure 7.32: Global bioethanol production growth (thousand tons of oil equivalent), 1998-2008
Figure 7.33: Top bioethanol producing countries (thousand tons of oil equivalent), 2008
Figure 7.34: Biodiesel (million L/a), 2009
Figure 7.35: Bioethanol in Europe (million L/a), 2008
Figure 7.36: Biodiesel production in Europe (million liters/annum), 2009
Figure 7.37: EU market share of biodiesel production in 2008 (%), 2009
Figure 7.38: Projected US ethanol production (billions of gallons), 2006-2012
Figure 7.39: US ethanol market revenue forecast ($bn), 2006-2012
Figure 7.40: US bioethanol development (million L/a), 2009
Figure 7.41: US biodiesel (million L/a), 2009
Figure 7.42: Brazil biofuels development (million L/a), 2009
Figure 8.43: Renewable fuels targets in the US (billions of gallons per year), 2006-2012
Figure 8.44: EU biofuels targets, 2008
List of Tables
Table 2.1: World renewable energy, 2008
Table 2.2: Population, energy consumption and biomass contribution in selected regions, 2005
Table 2.3: Current and predicted EU biomass resources (Mtoe/y)
Table 2.4: Current and potential US biomass resources (Million dry tons/y), 2005
Table 2.5: Potential power generation from biomass among ASEAN countries (MW)
Table 2.6: Breakdown of currently available biomass in China by type
Table 2.7: Maximum regional bioenergy production potential, 2050
Table 2.8: Typical oil extraction from 100kg of oil seeds (kg)
Table 3.9: Comparison of first and second generation biofuels
Table 3.10: Biofuels comparison (Liters of oil yields (hectares/year)), to 2009
Table 3.11: Viable Bio-SPK feedstock alternatives, 2009
Table 3.12: Fuel property comparisons: Neat, 2009
Table 3.13: Fuel property comparisons: Blends, 2009
Table 5.14: Projected world energy demand to 2030
Table 5.15: Growth in energy demand by region (2000-2030)
Table 5.16: Projected worldwide oil consumption (million barrels per day), 2005-2025
Table 5.17: CO2 equivalent emissions savings from biofuels (g/km), 2006
Table 5.18: Average annual oil price (US$ per barrel), 2008
Table 5.19: Key barriers for biofuels
Table 6.20: Production costs of biofuels from various crops
Table 6.21: Cost of distribution and dispensation of various fuels from a central production facilityto a filling station (€/GJ)
Table 6.22: Costs of various biofuels at the filling station using existing technology (2004)
Table 6.23: Cost comparison of biofuels with gasoline fossil fuels
Table 6.24: Cost estimates of various biofuels at the filling station using future technology, post- 2010
Table 6.25: Cost of harvesting, dewatering and drying algae, 2009
Table 6.26: Top biofuels companies, 2009
Table 6.27: Algal fuel capacity projections 2009-2014, 2009
Table 7.28: Comparison of worldwide fuel production from hydrocarbon sources versus biomass sources, 2005
Table 7.29: Worldwide biofuels fuel production volume (bn liters), 2008
Table 7.30: Amounts of raw materials to meet worldwide fuel demand, 2005
Table 7.31: Global bioethanol production (thousand tons of oil equivalent), 2008
Table 7.32: Biodiesel (million L/a), 2008
Table 7.33: Bioethanol in Europe (million L/a), 2008
Table 7.34: EU bioethanol production, supply and demand (1,000MT)
Table 7.35: EU bioethanol production - number of plants and capacity (1,000 MT)
Table 7.36: Feedstock use for bioethanol production (1,000MT)
Table 7.37: EU bioethanol consumption - main consumers (1,000 MT)
Table 7.38: EU bioethanol and gasoline consumption (Ktoe)
Table 7.39: Biodiesel production in Europe (millions liters/annum), 2009
Table 7.40: EU Biodiesel production - number of plants and capacity (1,000 MT)
Table 7.41: EU market share of biodiesel production in 2008 (%), 2009
Table 7.42: Feedstock use for biodiesel production (1,000MT), 2009
Table 7.43: EU biodiesel consumption (1,000MT), 2009
Table 7.44: EU biodiesel and diesel consumption (Ktoe), 2009
Table 7.45: Projected US ethanol production (billions of gallons), 2006-2012
Table 7.46: US ethanol market revenue forecast (US$bn), 2006-2012
Table 7.47: US bioethanol development (million L/a), 2009
Table 7.48: Existing and future ethanol capacity in the US, 2009
Table 7.49: US biodiesel (million L/a), 2009
Table 7.50: Ethanol profile comparison of the US and Brazil (2006)
Table 7.51: Brazil biofuels development (million L/a), 2009
Table 7.52: Brazilian biodiesel production, supply and demand (January-December, 000 Liters), 2009
Table 7.53: Brazilian fuel consumption matrix (000 m3)
Table 7.54: Brazilian soybeans and products production (000 hectares, 000 metric tons)
Table 7.55: Brazilian cotton and products production (000 hectares, 000 metric tons)
Table 7.56: Projected demand and supply of ethanol in India for 5% blend with gasoline
Table 7.57: India’s ethanol requirement for 5% blending with gasoline sugar
Table 7.58: India’s production & distribution of molasses and alcohol/ethanol in sugar (million Tons/ million Liters), 2008
Table 7.59: Projected demand for gasoline and diesel in India to 2012 (MT)
Table 7.60: Diesel and biodiesel demand in India using Jatropha (MT)
Table 7.61: China’s major biodiesel plants production capacity (MT), 2008
Table 8.62: Biofuels infrastructure profiles,Q209
Table 8.63: Mechanisms to incentivize renewable energy generation
Table 8.64: EU renewable energy targets for 2020 (%)
Table 8.65: Renewable fuels targets in the US (billions of gallons per year), 2006-2012
Table 8.66: Biofuels energy targets
Table 8.67: Biofuels policy overview of selected countries

Abstract

Over 80% of the world’s primary energy supply is currently derived from coal, gas and oil (collectively known as ‘fossil fuels’), which are used to generate electricity, power, energy and heat for industrial, commercial, domestic and transportation purposes. The world’s dependence on crude oil for transportation is particularly marked, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimating that fuels from crude oil currently supply about 96% of the worldwide energy demand for transport purposes. As the world’s population grows and developing countries look to expand their economies, this insatiable demand for fossil fuels is unlikely to show any sign of easing, with oil and gas accounting for 60% of the world’s increasing energy demand between now and 2030. Furthermore, with most significant reserves of fossil fuels unevenly distributed throughout the world, energy security is set to become an increasingly critical economic and political issue over the coming decades. Real or perceived disruptions to the global supply of fossil fuels - notably crude oil - are likely to grow in frequency and cause wild fluctuations in the price of energy, as they have done so in the past. However, one of the most pressing reasons for seeking alternative sources of energy and fuel lies in the form of climate change. The combustion of fossil fuels releases carbon dioxide (CO2), a potent ‘greenhouse gas’ (GHG), which are considered to be responsible for ‘global warming’. According to the IEA, if no changes are made to the world’s existing energy economy, related emissions of CO2 will grow marginally faster than energy use, meaning that by 2030 global CO2 emissions will be more than 50% higher than today. Over two-thirds of that projected increase in emissions is expected to come from emerging economies, such as India, China - both of which are set to rely heavily on coal-based power stations to drive their rapidly developing economies. The combination of biomass and biofuels accounted for around 26% of the world’s total renewable energy production in 2008. Second generation biofuels have been developed due to limitations of first generation biofuels, primarily that the resources used threatens food supplies. Second generation biofuels production processes include use a variety of non-food crops such as waste biomass, the stalks of wheat, corn, wood and miscanthus. Second generation biofuels use biomass to liquid technology, such as cellulosic biofuels from non-food crops. ‘Third generation biofuel’ primarily references fuel derived from algae. Algae fuel is not yet commercially available or viable due to cost constraints, but through various laboratory experiments promising results have been obtained. In 2008, the US Department of Energy noted that algae can produce 30 times more energy per acre than land crops such as soybeans.

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