Mobile Augmented Reality: Forecasts, Applications & Opportunity Appraisal 2009-2014

Published by: Juniper Research Limited

Published: Nov. 1, 2009 - 85 Pages

Table of Contents

Glossary

Executive Summary

ES1 Introduction

ES2 What this Report Covers

ES3 The Market for Mobile Augmented Reality

ES3.1 The Opportunity for Mobile AR

ES3.2The Growth of Mobile AR Revenues

Figure ES1: Total Mobile AR Market ($m) Split by 3 Revenue Streams 2009-2014

Table ES1: Total Mobile AR Market ($m) Split by 3 Revenue Streams 2009-2014

Figure ES2: Total Mobile AR Market ($m) Split by 7 Categories 2009-2014

Table ES2: Total Mobile AR Market ($m) Split by 7 Categories 2009-2014

Figure ES3: Mobile AR Revenue Streams ($m) Split by 7 Categories, 2014

Table ES3: Mobile AR Revenue Streams ($m) Split by 7 Categories, 2014

ES4 Strategic Recommendations

1. The Development of Mobile Augmented Reality

1.1 What is Augmented Reality?

1.2 Augmented Reality via the Mobile

1.2.1 How it Works

1.2.2 Enabling Technologies

i. QR Code

Figure 1.1: Two-Dimensional Barcode (QR Code)

ii. Image Recognition

a. Facial Recognition

iii. Markerless Tracking

1.3 Key Drivers for Mobile AR

1.3.1 The Launch of the iPhone and the App Store

i. Market Prior to mid 2008

ii. 3G iPhone Launches

iii. The Impact of the App Store

1.3.2 The Launch of Android

1.3.3 The Development of Location-Based Services

1.3.4 Mobile Internet Adoption is Increasing

1.3.5 Technological Advances - Networks

1.3.6 Data Charges Are Being Reduced

2. The Opportunity for Augmented Reality on the Mobile

2.1 Introduction

2.2 Key Areas for AR App Deployment

2.2.1 Location-Based Search

i. Definition

ii. AR Opportunity

iii. Case Study: Layar

iv. Case Study: Wikitude AR Travel App

Figure 2.1: Wikitude Screen Shot

v. Case Study: Nearest Tube

Figure 2.2: Nearest Tube Screenshot

2.2.2 Social Networking

i. Definition

ii. AR Opportunity

iii. Case Study: Augmented ID from The Astonishing Tribe

Figure 2.3: Augmented ID Screenshot

2.2.3 Games

i. Definition

ii. AR Opportunity

iii. Case Study: ARHrrr!

Figure 2.4: ARHrrr! Screenshot

iv. Case Study: Mosquitoes

Figure 2.5: Mosquitoes Screenshot

2.2.4 Lifestyle & Healthcare

i. Definition

ii. AR Opportunity

2.2.5 Education & Reference

i. Definition

ii. AR Opportunity

2.2.6 Multimedia & Entertainment

i. Definition

ii. AR Opportunity

iii. Case Study: Heartbreak Welfare

2.2.7 Enterprise Solutions

i. Definition

ii. AR Opportunity

2.3 Monetising Augmented Reality

2.3.1 Pay-Per Download

2.3.2 Freemium: AR Lite

2.3.3 Free to Download/Ad-funded

i. Advertising on the Mobile

Table 2.1: Key Drivers of Advertising in Mobile

ii. Augmented Reality and Advertising

a. Apps in Advertising - Case Study: Carling Lager

Figure 2.6: The Carling iPint

2.3.4 Preinstalled AR apps

2.4 The Industry Response to Augmented Reality

2.4.1 Vendors/OS Providers

i. Case Study: Nokia

Figure 2.7: Still Images from MARA Video

ii. Case Study: Apple and Yelp!

Figure 2.8: Yelp iPhone 3GS Easter Egg Screenshots

2.4.2 Operators

Figure 2.9: Intuitive Search and Navigation Screenshot

2.5 The Market for Mobile Augmented Reality Services and Products

Figure 2.10: Total Mobile AR Market ($m) Split by 7 Categories 2009-2014

Table 2.2: Total Mobile AR Market ($m) Split by 7 Categories 2009-2014

Figure 2.11: Total Mobile AR Market ($m) Split by 3 Revenue Streams 2009-2014

Table 2.3: Total Mobile AR Market ($m) Split by 3 Revenue Streams 2009-2014

Figure 2.12: Mobile AR Revenue Streams ($m) Split by 7 Categories 2014

Table 2.4: Mobile AR Revenue Streams ($m) Split by 7 Categories 2014

3. Barriers to AR Deployment and Adoption

3.1 Public Awareness

3.2 User Interface

3.3 Addressable Market

3.4 Visibility/Reach

3.5 GPS Limitations

3.6 Safety

3.6.1 Privacy, Libel & Obscenity

i. Privacy

a. Case Study: Google Street View

ii. Copyright

iii. Libel/Obscenity Laws

4. The Market for AR Downloads - POS

4.1 Relative Popularity of Mobile Applications

Figure 4.1: Most Popular Categories of Applications on App Store, by Number of Titles, November 2009 (117,372 titles)

Table 4.1: Percentage of Handango Downloads Attributable to Games, by OS, 2005-2008 54

4.1.1 Implications for AR Apps

4.2 Methodology

Figure 4.2: Bottom-Up Methodology for Derivation of AR Point-of-Sale/Download Revenues55

4.3 AR-enabled Handsets Subscriber Forecast

4.3.1 Global Mobile Subscriber Forecasts

Figure 4.3: Global Mobile Subscriber Forecast (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2008 - 2014

Table 4.2: Global Mobile Subscriber Forecast (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2008 - 2014

4.3.2 AR Handset Forecasts

Table 4.3: Percentage of Handsets Equipped with AR Capability Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014

Figure 4.4: Handsets with AR Capabilities (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014

Table 4.4: Handsets with AR Capabilities (m) Split by 8 Key Regions 2008-2014

4.4 Mobile AR Service Users and Usage

Table 4.5: Percentage of AR Handset Users Who Use AR Apps and Services Split by 7 Categories 2008-2014

Figure 4.5: Number of AR Handset Users Who Use AR Apps and Services (m) Split by 7 Categories 2008-2014

Table 4.6: Number of AR Handset Users Who Use AR Apps and Services (m) Split by 7 Categories 2008-2014

4.5 The Point-of-Sale Market for AR Services and Applications

Figure 4.6: Average Number of AR App Downloads per User per Year Split by 7 Categories 2008-2014

Table 4.7: Average Number of AR App Downloads per User per Year Split by 7 Categories 2008-2014

Figure 4.7: Total Number of AR App Downloads Per Year Split by 7 Categories 2008-2014

Table 4.8: Total Number of AR App Downloads Per Year (m) Split by 7 Categories 2008- 2014

4.5.1 Retail Revenues of AR Applications

Table 4.9: Percentage of App Downloads which are Paid for Onstore Split by 7 Categories 2008-2014

Figure 4.8: Number of AR App Downloads which are Paid for (m) Split by 7 Categories 2008- 2014

Table 4.10: Number of AR App Downloads which are Paid for (m) Split by 7 Categories 2008-2014

Table 4.11: Mobile AR Apps, Price per Download ($) Split by 7 Categories 2008-2014

Figure 4.9: Mobile Apps, Retail Value ($m) Split by 7 Categories 2009-2014

Table 4.12: Mobile AR Apps, Retail Value, ($m) Split by 7 Categories 2008-2014

5. The Market for Mobile AR App - Incremental Revenues

5.1 Subscriptions, Licences and Value-Added Content

5.2 Methodology

Figure 5.1: Bottom Up Methodology for Derivation of Incremental AR App Revenues

5.3 Incremental Users & Usage

Table 5.1: Percentage of Downloaded Applications That Upsell VAS, Onstore Split by 5 Categories 2011-2014

Figure 5.2: Number of Downloaded Apps That Upsell VAS, Upsold Content, Onstore Split by 5 Categories 2011-2014

Table 5.2: Number of AR Apps That Upsell VAS, Upsold Content (m) Split by 5 Categories 2008-2014

Figure 5.3: Average Number of AR VAS Sold Per Upselling Download Split by 5 Categories 2011-2014

Table 5.3: Average Number of AR VAS Sold Per Upselling Download Split by 5 Categories 2011-2014

Figure 5.4: Total Number of AR VAS Sold (m) Split by 5 Categories 2011-2014

Table 5.4: Total Number of VAS Sold (m) Split by 5 Categories 2011-2014

5.4 Incremental Revenues of AR Applications

Table 5.5: Price per VAS, Onstore ($) Split by 5 Categories 2008-2014

Figure 5.5: AR Apps, Upselling Revenues ($) Split by 5 Categories 2011-2014

Table 5.6: AR Apps, Upselling Revenues ($) Split by 5 Categories 2011-2014

6. The Market for Mobile AR Apps - Advertising

6.1 Methodology

Figure 6.1: Bottom Up Methodology for Derivation of Mobile AR App Revenues

6.2 Ad-funded AR “Sessions”

6.2.1 Average Usage Levels

Figure 6.2: Average Number of AR Sessions per Service User Split by 5 Categories 2009-2014

Table 6.1: Average Number of AR Sessions per Service User Split by 5 Categories 2009- 2014

Figure 6.3: Total Number of Usage Sessions of AR Apps and Services (m) Split by 5 Categories 2009-2014

Table 6.2: Total Number of Usage Sessions of AR Apps and Services (m) Split by 5 Categories 2009-2014

Table 6.3: Percentage of Sessions Resulting in Clickthroughs of Sponsored AR Links Split by 5 Categories 2010-2014

6.3 AR Ad-funded Sponsored Sessions and Response Rates

Figure 6.4: Total Number of Sponsored Sessions Split by 5 Categories 2010-2014

Table 6.4: Total Number of Sponsored Sessions Split by 5 Categories 2010-2014

Table 6.5: Average Number of Clickthroughs per Sponsored Session 2010-2014.

Figure 6.5: Total Number of AR-enabled Clickthroughs Split by 5 Categories 2010-2014

Table 6.6: Total Number of AR-enabled Clickthroughs Split by 5 Categories 2010-2014 AR Advertising Costs and Revenues

Table 6.7: CPC (Cost per Clickthrough) Rates for AR Advertising ($) Split by 5 Categories 2010-2014

Figure 6.6: Total Mobile AR-related Adspend ($) Split by 5 Categories 2010-2014

Table 6.8: Total Mobile AR-related Adspend ($) Split by 5 Categories 2010-2014

Abstract

This report provides the most detailed analysis of the market opportunities for augmented reality on the mobile to date. The report is broken down into three chapters of market analysis and three chapters of forecasts. The analytical chapters consider the initial service deployments, market opportunities and barriers to adoption; the forecasting chapters respectively look at point of sale revenues (split by usage, number of downloads per annum, cost per download, proportion of apps paid for, and total download revenues) incremental revenues (including subscriptions, licences upsold content) and advertising revenues.

Each forecasting chapter is split by the following augmented reality categories: location based search; mobile games; multimedia & entertainment; lifestyle & healthcare; education & reference; social networking; and, enterprise.

The report analyses a number of key application deployments identifying opportunities within each of the categories. It investigates a variety of business models looking at how licencing and subscription revenues are likely to develop over the forecast period.

Key questions the report answers:

1. How much will mobile augmented reality applications be worth by 2014?
2. Will vendors seek to offer on-device AR-enabled apps and browsers?
3. Which categories of AR app are likely to be most successful?
4. What strategies should brands employ as they seek to engage with mobile AR?
5. Which business models should operators and app publishers deploy to monetise AR apps?
6. What has the consumer response been thus far to AR apps?
7. What hurdles are likely to constrain the deployment and adoption of AR apps?

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