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Russia Tourism Report Q1 2010Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Nov. 30, 2009 - 60 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractTourism Overview Growth in foreign visitor arrivals to Russia in the three-year period between 2005 and 2008 was weak, estimated at an annual average of just 2.4%. The most recent figures from national data sources for the first half of 2009 show a sharp fall in arrivals, down by over 11% year-on-year (y-o-y) to nearly 9.9mn. Regarding key source markets outside the former Soviet Union, there was negative y-o-y growth in arrivals from Germany, the US, Italy, the UK, China and Poland. Of these countries, the most significant rates of decline were recorded for the number of visitors from Poland (-46% y-o-y), the UK (-24% y-o-y) and the US (-15% y-o-y).Forecast Scenario Given the pace of economic decline in Ukraine, Kazakhstan and the eurozone - key source markets for Russian tourism - the outlook for foreign visitors to Russia in 2009 was extremely poor. Taking into account official data on arrivals for H109, BMI maintains its forecast of an annual decline in foreign tourist arrivals of 12% for 2009 as a whole. In line with our forecast of broad economic recovery in key source markets in 2010, we expect a slight pick up in arrivals over the year (+1%). In addition, since our last report we have revised up our end-2010 and 2011 Russian rouble forecasts against the US dollar and the euro. The anticipated appreciation of the rouble is likely to be an important factor working against recovery in foreign tourism over the next few years, with the result that growth in arrivals over the forecast period through to 2014 is expected to remain subdued. Pulkovo Airport In Q409, the Northern Capital Gateway (NCG) consortium signed a public-private partnership agreement for the St Petersburg Pulkovo Airport concession, which was awarded in June 2009. This bodes well for future private sector participation in Russia’s infrastructure. The consortium takes over operation of St Petersburg’s main airport for 30 years from April 2010. The agreement involves EUR1.4bn investment in the airport, which includes the construction of a new terminal and upgrading existing infrastructure, including additional runways and surrounding facilities. Aeroflot Russian national airline Aeroflot reported total group income of US$1,456mn in the first six months of 2009, down by 32% y-o-y. Operational expenditure amounted to US$1,352mn, also down over 30% y-oy. Group net profit for H109 totalled US$14mn. The airline carried 6.5mn passengers in the first nine months of 2009, a fall of about 9% y-o-y, although the rate of decline is better than that recorded earlier in the year. Starwood Hotels & Resorts The first hotel to open under Starwood Hotels & Resorts’ Luxury Collection brand in Russia, the Hotel National in Moscow, opened in September 2009. Starwood has two other properties in Moscow. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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