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Russia Retail Report Q1 2010Published by: Business Monitor International Published: Dec. 3, 2009 - 57 Pages Table of Contents
AbstractThe Q110 BMI Russia Retail report predicts that the country’s total retail sales will increase by nearly 76% in local currency terms by 2014, growing from an estimated RUB14.35trn (US$462.78bn) in 2009 to RUB25.23trn (US$999.0bn). Rising disposable incomes, an expanding middle class and rising levels of credit penetration are key factors behind retail market expansion. Accelerating foreign direct investment (FDI) has allowed retailers to make significant inroads into the market, contributing to forecast annual retail sales growth of more than 11% in dollar terms.Russia’s nominal GDP was US$1,380.36bn in 2009, with 2009’s decline of 8.6% expected to turn into growth of 3.4% in 2010 as the economy begins to improve. Average annual GDP growth of 2.0% is predicted by BMI between 2009 and 2014. Although the population is forecast to decrease, from 141.1mn in 2009 to an estimated 137.6mn by 2014, GDP per capita is predicted to rise by more than 120% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$21,534. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$7,460 in 2009 to US$13,316 by 2014. The country’s large population - and the affluent urban population of Moscow in particular - is providing a solid base for the expansion of the retail market. Russia has 14 cities with more than 1mn people, and consumers are increasingly looking to modern retail outlets for aspirational purchases. From January to April 2007, according to the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) real disposable cash income increased by 11.5% compared with the same period in 2006, while during April 2007 incomes rose by almost 9.2% against April 2006. Retail sectors that are likely to see substantial growth over the forecast period include over the counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals, consumer electronics and automotives. According to BMI data, OTC pharmaceutical sales stood at US$5.29bn in 2009 and are likely to grow by 153%, to US$13.40bn by 2014. The consumer electronics sector is predicted to expand by almost 40%, growing from an estimated US$16.0bn in 2009 to US$22.38bn before the end of the forecast period. Automotives sales are forecast to more than double, from an estimated US$65.73bn in 2009 to US$133.47bn by 2014. The availability of consumer credit is allowing an increasing number of Russians to make ‘luxury’ purchases. Press reports say that Russia’s second largest lender, VTB, was expected to double its consumer credit portfolio to U$13bn in 2009 through its retail banking unit VTB-24,. Retail sales for the BMI universe of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in 2009 amounted to an estimated US$1,053bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’s macroeconomic database amounts to US$2,134bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland together accounted for an estimated 82% of regional retail sales in 2009, with their combined share expected to exceed 87% by 2014. For Russia, the estimated 2009 market share of 43.9% is expected to rise to 50.5% by 2014. Get Full Details About This Report >> |
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