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Romania Tourism Report Q1 2010

Published by: Business Monitor International

Published: Nov. 25, 2009 - 52 Pages


Table of Contents


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Romania Tourism Industry SWOT
Romania Political SWOT
Romania Economic SWOT
Romania Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Arrivals
Table: Arrivals Data, 2005-2013
Accommodation
Table: Accommodation Data, 2005-2013
Expenditure
Table: Expenditure And Economic Impact Data, 2005-2013
Inbound Tourism
Table: Inbound Tourism Data, 2005-2013
Outbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2005-2013
Table: Resident Departures By Destination Country, 2005-2013
Market Overview - Travel
Commercial Airlines
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q108-Q409 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Prices, 2007-2014 (US$/bbl)
Market Overview - Hospitality
Table: Key Players In The Romanian Hotel Industry, 2008 (US$mn)
Accommodation Developments
Infrastructure
Business Environment
Regional Tourism Business Environment Ratings
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Travel And Tourism Business Environment Rating
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Regional Security Risk Ratings
Table: Central And Eastern Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability Index
Regional Security: Europe
Romania’s Security Risk Rating
Currency Forecast
Table: BMI’s Romania Currency Forecasts, 2009-2010
Global Assumptions
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2008-2011 (%)
Table: Global Assumptions, 2008-2014
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average)
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average)
Company Profiles
Tarom
SIF Transilvania
Unita Turism Holding
Austrian Airlines
Hilton
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings - Methodology
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting of Components
Sources

Abstract

The Romanian tourism sector remains in poor shape. After strong growth in foreign visitor arrivals in the previous two years, data for the first eight months of 2009 show a continuing sharp deterioration in the number of foreign visitors, with arrivals down by nearly 15% compared with the same period in 2008.

About 95% of all arrivals over this period were from European countries, with 63% of visitors coming from the EU. Following buoyant growth in Romanian tourist departures in recent years, official data for January-August 2009 showed a decline of 8% year-on-year (y-o-y) of Romanian visitors abroad.

Hospitality The weak performance of the hospitality sector during the past year and a half, particularly regarding foreign visitors, continues. The most recent data, for January-August 2009, confirm a major deterioration in the sector, with tourist nights for foreign and domestic tourists in all accommodation establishments down by 16% y-o-y, of which foreign tourist nights fell by 24% y-o-y. Tourist nights by domestic residents fell by nearly 15% y-o-y. Over the same period eight-month period, foreign visitor arrivals in collective accommodation establishments declined by more than 16% y-o-y.

Forecast Scenario This quarter, BMI maintains its previous forecast of sizeable negative annual growth in foreign visitor arrivals of -15% in 2009. The particularly poor outlook is largely due to marked negative real GDP growth in the eurozone, the major source region for visitors to Romania. In addition, Hungary, an important source market, experienced a deep recession in 2009 (with real GDP down by over -6%). A slight pick up in visitor arrivals to Romania is anticipated in 2010 as the eurozone records modest economic recovery. In Hungary, however, a moderate recovery is not expected until 2011. Over the remainder of the forecast period, the outlook for further increases in arrivals remains relatively favourable, with growth in visitor numbers accelerating.

Tarom Although the Romanian national flag carrier Tarom recorded negative growth in passenger traffic of about 12% in the first eight months of 2009, compared with the corresponding period a year earlier, the rate of decline appears to be easing. Traffic fell by a more modest 5% y-o-y in August.

Wizz Air As part of its extensive network of flights between Romania and Italy, from its three Romanian bases, Hungarian low-cost carrier Wizz Air launched two new routes from Bucharest to Catania and Bologna/Forli in September and October 2009. Additionally, from October, the airline increased frequencies on routes from Cluj-Napoca to Rome Fiumicino Airport and Paris Beauvais Tillé Airport. As part of its seasonal ski services, Wizz Air is launching new routes from Bucharest and Cluj-Napoca to Grenoble-Isère in France between December 2009 and March 2010.

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