4Q09 Venezuela Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Venezuela will have 36.3 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with market share of Telvenco increasing to 25.8% : Market Research Report

4Q09 Venezuela Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Venezuela will have 36.3 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with market share of Telvenco increasing to 25.8%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 17, 2009 - 118 Pages

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast: Movilnet (CA Nacional Telefonos de Venezuela (CANTV)); Movistar Venezuela (Telefonica S.A.); Telvenco S.A.
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS; SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY); SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR; NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR *; POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %); DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR **; MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR **; DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) **; MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR; VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR ***; VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) ***; MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) ***; MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) ***; SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE; SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE; YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR; REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) ****; SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR ****; CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR ****; (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR ****; EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR; REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD); ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD); DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) **; VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) ***; SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD); EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD); CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) ****; * Not available for this country forecast; ** Available only for Movilnet; *** Available only for Movilnet and Movistar Venezuela; **** Available only for Movistar Venezuela

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Venezuela provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Venezuelan wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Venezuela include: Movilnet (CA Nacional Telefonos de Venezuela (CANTV)), Movistar Venezuela (Telefonica S.A.), and Telvenco S.A. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Double-digit subscriber growth continues in Venezuela's mobile operator space, but growth is slowing down +10.0% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

ARPUs increased at Movilnet and Movistar Venezuela in the latest quarter +13.2% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Strong EBITDA growth across operators in the latest quarter +38.2% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

The number of total subscriber accounts in Venezuela to reach 36.3 million in 2013

Our forecasting model predicts that the number of total subscriber accounts in Venezuela will increase from 28.2 million in 2008 to 36.3 million in 2013.
We forecast that subscriber bases at Movilnet, Movistar Venezuela, and Telvenco will rise to approximately 13.7 million, 13.2 million, and 9.4 million respectively in 2013.

Telvenco's subscriber market share will be increasing over the next five years

We expect that Telvenco's share of total subscribers will be increasing from 21.5% in 2008 to 25.8% in 2013.
On the other hand, we expect that Movilnet's subscriber market share will fall from 39.8% to 37.9% and Movistar Venezuela's market share will fall from 38.7% to 36.3% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.

ARPU levels in Venezuela is to stabilize over the next several years

Although ARPUs are declining in many wireless markets around the world, we think that this is not the case in Venezuela. We forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU will increase from VEF 39.46 in 2008 to VEF 43.95 in 2013.
Movistar Venezuela will continue to receive the highest monthly ARPU among the Venezuelan operators. We forecast that its monthly ARPU will increase to VEF 43.76 in 2013.
On the other hand, Telvenco's monthly ARPU will remain much lower at approximately VEF 22 from 2009 to 2013.

Movistar Venezuela will continue to enjoy higher level of profitability than Movilnet and Telvenco

We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will increase slightly from 38.9% in 2008 to 39.1% in 2013.
We expect that Movistar's EBITDA margin will continue to be higher than those of Movilnet and Telvenco. Our model predicts that EBITDA margins at Movilnet, Movistar Venezuela, and Telvenco will be 22.5%, 50.4%, and 37.2% respectively in 2013.

Please Note: This product is delivered as an excel file

Get Full Details About This Report >>

US: 800.298.5699

Int'l: +1.240.747.3093

About MarketResearch.com
MarketResearch.com is an online aggregator selling over 300,000 market research reports, company profiles and country profiles from over 700 research firms. Our reports will provide you with the critical business and competitive intelligence you need for strategic planning and marketing research. Coverage includes the US, UK, Europe, Asia and global markets.

2/15/2012 - 31

4Q09 Venezuela Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Venezuela will have 36.3 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with market share of Telvenco increasing to 25.8%

Table of Contents

Abstract