4Q09 Taiwan Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Taiwan will have 28.8 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with Chunghwa Telecom taking market share of 34.6%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 17, 2009 - 118 Pages

Table of Contents

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast

Chunghwa Telecom Co., Ltd.

Taiwan Mobile Co., Ltd.

Far EasTone Telecommunications Co., Ltd.

First International Telecom Corp. (Fitel) (For Fitel, only the subscriber data is available)

APT (For APT, only the subscriber data is available)

VIBO Telecom Inc. (For VIBO, only the subscriber data is available)

Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011

PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS

SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)

SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR

NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)

DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR

DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR

VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR

VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)

MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)

SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE

SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE

YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR

REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *

SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR

EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *

CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *

(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *

EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR

REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)

DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)

VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)

SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)

CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) *

* Available only for Taiwan Mobile Co., Ltd. and Far EasTone Telecommunications Co., Ltd.

Abstract

• We forecast that the number of total mobile subscriber accounts in Taiwan will increase from 25.5 million in 2008 to 28.8 million in 2013.
• Chunghwa Telecom will continue to be the largest operator in Taiwan; our model predicts that Chunghwa Telecom's subscriber base will increase from 8.95 million in 2008 to 9.94 million in 2013.
• Taiwan Mobile will remain in the second place with 7.71 million subscribers in 2013, and Far EasTone will remain in the third place with 6.27 million subscribers in 2013.

• Our forecasting model predicts that subscriber market shares of Chunghwa Telecom and Far EasTone will be falling over the next several years to reach 34.6% and 21.8% respectively in 2013.
• In contrast, we expect that Taiwan Mobile's market share will increase from 24.6% in 2008 to 26.8% in 2013.
• We expect that Fitel, APT, and VIBO will maintain their market shares over the next five years. Our model predicts that their market shares will be approximately 4.2% (Fitel), 8.7% (APT), and 3.9% (VIBO) in 2013.

• Our model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU will decline from TWD 733 in 2008 to TWD 668 in 2013. We forecast that Data ARPU will account for 19.3% of this overall ARPU (i.e. Monthly Data ARPU will be approximately TWD 129) in 2013.
• We forecast that monthly ARPUs at Chunghwa Telecom, Taiwan Mobile, and Far Eastone will be TWD 655, TWD 677, and TWD 679 respectively in 2013.

• Our forecasting model predicts that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA / reported revenue) will decrease from 43.8% in 2008 to 39.0% in 2013.
• At the operator level, Chunghwa Telecom will continue to enjoy the highest profitability in Taiwan's mobile operator space. We expect that Chunghwa Telecom's EBITDA margin will be about 49% from 2009 to 2013.

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