4Q09 Philippines Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Wireless market in the Philippines will have 90.7 million subscribers in 2013 with PLDT taking market share of 57.1% : Market Research Report

4Q09 Philippines Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Wireless market in the Philippines will have 90.7 million subscribers in 2013 with PLDT taking market share of 57.1%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 17, 2009 - 118 Pages

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast: The Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company (PLDT); Globe Telecom, Inc.; Digital Telecommunications Philippines, Inc. (Digitel) (estimates only); (For Digitel, only the subscriber data is available.)
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS; SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY); SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR; NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %); DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR; DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR; VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR *; VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *; MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) *; MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) *; SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE; SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE; YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR; REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR; REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD); ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD); DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD); VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) *; SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD); EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD); CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD); * Available only for the Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company (PLDT)

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on the Philippines provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Philippines wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for the Philippines include: The Philippine Long Distance Telephone Company (PLDT), Globe Telecom, Inc., and Digital Telecommunications Philippines, Inc. (Digitel). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Double-digit wireless subscriber growth continues in the Philippines +16.5% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

ARPU growth levels continue to register in negative territory -10.5% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Data ARPUs are also declining in the Philippines Industry average Data ARPU growth in 2Q.2009 was -6.1%

Negative EBITDA growth at Globe Telecom in the latest quarter -3.8% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in the Philippines will rise to 90.7 million in 2013

Given the latest quarter numbers, we forecast that total mobile subscribers in the Philippines will increase from 65.7 million in 2008 to 90.7 million in 2013.
The largest mobile operator in the country will continue to be PLDT. We expect that its subscriber base will increase from 35.2 million in 2008 to 51.8 million in 2013.
We also estimate that Globe Telecom will have 28.2 million subscribers and Digitel will have 10.8 million subscribers by the end of 2013.

PLDT's subscriber market share will be rising over the next five years

Our model is predicting that PLDT's subscriber market share will increase from 53.6% in 2008 to 57.1% in 2013.
Also, we expect that Digitel's share of total subscribers will rise from 8.7% in 2008 to 11.9% in 2013.
Instead, we forecast that Globe Telecom's share will decline to 31.1% in 2013.

ARPUs will continue to decline from 2009 to 2013

We think that ARPU levels in the Philippines will not be declining as dramatically as they did in the previous years.
Our model forecasts that PLDT's monthly ARPU will fall from PHP 218 in 2008 to PHP 186 in 2013.
Globe Telecom's monthly ARPU will fall from PHP 201 to PHP 157 over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.

Globe Telecom will enjoy higher EBITDA margins than PLDT over the next five years

Profitability, measured by EBITDA margins, is very high in the Philippines wireless market compared to many other wireless markets around the world.
We forecast that Globe Telecom's EBITDA margins will continue to be higher than PLDT's. Our model predicts that EBITDA margins (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) at PLDT and Globe Telecom will be approximately 55.3% and 63.1% respectively in 2013.

Please Note: This product is delivered as an excel file

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4Q09 Philippines Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Wireless market in the Philippines will have 90.7 million subscribers in 2013 with PLDT taking market share of 57.1%

Table of Contents

Abstract