4Q09 Peru Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Peru will have 114.9 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with T-Mobile's market share rising to 37.8%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 17, 2009 - 118 Pages

Table of Contents

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast

Movistar Perú (Telefonica, S.A.)

Claro S.A. (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.)

Nextel Communications

Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011

PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS

SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)

SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR

NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR *

POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)

DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR

DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR

VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR **

VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) **

MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) **

MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) **

SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE

SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE

YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR

REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) ***

SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR

EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***

CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***

(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***

EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR

REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)

DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)

VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) **

SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)

CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) ***

* Available only for Claro S.A. (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.) and Nextel Communications

** Available only for Movistar Perú (Telefonica, S.A.) and Claro S.A. (America Movil S.A.B. DE C.V.)

*** Available only for Movistar Perú (Telefonica, S.A.)

Abstract

• According to our forecasting model, the number of total wireless subscriber accounts in Peru will increase from 18.5 million in 2008 to 27.6 million in 2013.
• Movistar Peru will continue to be the largest mobile operator in Peru. We expect that Movistar Peru's subscriber accounts will increase from 10.6 million in 2008 to 14.1 million in 2013.
• We also forecast that Claro will have 11.9 million subscribers and Nextel will have 1.47 million subscribers by the end of 2013.

• Given the latest quarter numbers, our model is now predicting that Movistar's market share in Peru will decline from 57.5% in 2008 to 51.3% in 2013.
• On the other hand, we think that Claro's market share will increase from 38.9% in 2008 to 43.4% in 2013.
• We also expect that Nextel's market share will be increasing from 3.6% in 2008 to 5.3% in 2013.

• We forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU (Average Revenue per User) in Peru will fall from PEN 27.23 in 2008 to PEN 24.19 in 2013.
• ARPU levels at Movistar Peru and Claro will be declining over the next several years to reach PEN 21.29 and PEN 21.02, respectively, in 2013.
• Although Nextel will continue to receive the highest level of ARPU in the country, we expect that its ARPU level will still decline from PEN 94.73 in 2008 to PEN 78.95 in 2013.

• We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will improve from 30.8% in 2008 to 34.6% in 2013.
• We expect that EBITDA margins at Movistar Peru will remain higher than EBITDA margins at Claro and Nextel over the next several years. Our model forecasts that EBITDA margins at Movistar Peru, Claro, and Nextel will be 38.9%, 33.5%, and 16.0% respectively in 2013.

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