4Q09 New Zealand Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: New Zealand will have 6.05 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with market share of Vodafone falling to 51.7% : Market Research Report

4Q09 New Zealand Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: New Zealand will have 6.05 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with market share of Vodafone falling to 51.7%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 17, 2009 - 118 Pages

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast: Telecom New Zealand Limited (TCNZ); Vodafone Group Plc
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS; SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY); SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR; NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %); DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR; DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR; VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR; VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH); MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %); SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE; SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE; YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR; REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *; SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *; CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *; (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *; EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR; REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD); ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD); DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD); VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD); SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD); EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD); CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) *; * Not available for this country forecast

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on New Zealand provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for New Zealand’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for New Zealand include: Telecom New Zealand Limited (TCNZ), and Vodafone Group Plc. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Subscriber growth is slowing down in New Zealand's mobile operator space +3.5% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

Positive ARPU growth at Vodafone in the latest quarter +3.7% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber are stabilizing Industry average MOU/Sub of 190 minutes/month in 2Q.2009

TCNZ continues to suffer from negative EBITDA growth while Vodafone's EBITDA growth improves +7.1% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in New Zealand to exceed 6 million in 2013

We forecast that total subscribers in New Zealand will increase from 4.75 million in 2008 to 6.05 million in 2013.
Both Vodafone and TCNZ will see their numbers of subscriber accounts increase over the next five years.
Our model predicts that Vodafone will have 3.13 million subscribers and TCNZ will have 2.92 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2013.

Vodafone's subscriber market share will decline slightly over the next five years

Vodafone will continue to lead New Zealand in market shares although we expect that its market share will decline slightly over the next five years.
Our forecasting model predicts that Vodafone's subscriber market share will decline from 52.4% in 2008 to 51.7% in 2013 while TCNZ's share increases from 47.6% in 2008 to 48.3% in 2013.

Vodafone's ARPU level will continue to be higher than TCNZ's

We expect that Vodafone's monthly ARPU will increase slightly over the next several years. Our model predicts that Vodafone's monthly ARPU will change from NZD 44.95 in 2008 to NZD 48.00 in 2013.
TCNZ's monthly ARPU will be much lower than Vodafone's at NZD 29.13 in 2013, according to our model.

EBITDA margins will decline slightly from 2009 to 2013

We think that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will fall slightly from 40.7% in 2008 to 39.5% in 2013.
EBITDA margins at TCNZ and Vodafone will continue to be similar. We forecast that TCNZ's EBITDA margin will be 38.4% and Vodafone's EBITDA margin will be 40.1% in 2013.

Please Note: This product is delivered as an excel file

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4Q09 New Zealand Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: New Zealand will have 6.05 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with market share of Vodafone falling to 51.7%

Table of Contents

Abstract