4Q09 Morocco Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Morocco will have 35.9 million wireless subscribers in 2013 with market share of Maroc Telecom declining to 46.7% : Market Research Report

4Q09 Morocco Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Morocco will have 35.9 million wireless subscribers in 2013 with market share of Maroc Telecom declining to 46.7%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 17, 2009 - 118 Pages

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast: Maroc Telecom SA; Meditel (Medi Telecom); Wana (For Wana, only the subscriber data is available.)
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS; SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY); SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR; NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR **; POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %); DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR *; MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR *; DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *; MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR; VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR; VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH); MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %); SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE; SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE; YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR; REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) **; SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR **; CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR **; (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR **; EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR; REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD); ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD); DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) *; VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD); SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD); EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD); CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) **; * Not available for this country forecast; ** Available only for Maroc Telecom SA

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Morocco provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Morocco’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Morocco include: Maroc Telecom SA, Meditel (Medi Telecom), and Wana. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Subscriber growth is slowing down in Morocco's wireless market +16.1% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

ARPU levels continue to decline in Morocco -2.1% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber remains low in Morocco -4.1% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 2Q.2009

Negative EBITDA growth at Maroc Telecom and Meditel in the latest quarter -1.3% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in Morocco to reach 35.9 million in 2013

We forecast that total mobile subscribers in Morocco will increase from 24.9 million in 2008 to 35.9 million in 2013.
We expect that Maroc Telecom will continue to be the largest wireless carrier in Morocco over the next five years with 16.8 million subscribers in 2013.
Our model also forecasts that Meditel will remain in the second place with 12.6 million subscribers in 2013 while Wana finishes third with 6.5 million in 2013.

Maroc Telecom will lose subscriber market share to Meditel and Wana over the next five years

Maroc Telecom will maintain its position as the biggest mobile operator in Morocco over the next several years. However, we expect that Maroc Telecom will be losing its market share to Meditel and Wana over the forecast period. Our model predicts that Maroc Telecom's subscriber market share will decline from 58.2% in 2008 to 46.7% in 2013.
In contrast, we expect that Meditel's subscriber market share will increase from 31.5% to 35.1% and Wana's market share will increase from 10.4% to 18.2% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.

Maroc Telecom will continue to receive higher ARPU than Meditel

Maroc Telecom will continue to lead Morocco in ARPU, but our model predicts that its monthly ARPU will still decline from MAD 100.03 in 2008 to MAD 94.99 in 2013.
On the other hand, we forecast that Meditel's monthly ARPU level will decline from MAD 64.02 in 2008 to MAD 50.67 in 2013.

EBITDA margins will deteriorate in Morocco's mobile operator space over the next several years

We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will decline from 59.7% in 2008 to 56.0% in 2013. Our model predicts that Maroc Telecom's EBITDA margin will decrease from 64.2% in 2008 to 59.9% in 2013
Also, we expect that Meditel's EBITDA margin will fall from 43.6% in 2008 to 40.6% 2013.

Please Note: This product is delivered as an excel file

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4Q09 Morocco Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Morocco will have 35.9 million wireless subscribers in 2013 with market share of Maroc Telecom declining to 46.7%

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Abstract