4Q09 Israel Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: The Israeli wireless market will have 11 million subscribers in 2013 with market share of Cellcom increasing to 35.6% : Market Research Report

4Q09 Israel Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: The Israeli wireless market will have 11 million subscribers in 2013 with market share of Cellcom increasing to 35.6%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 17, 2009 - 118 Pages

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast: Cellcom Israel Ltd.; Pelephone; Partner Communications Co. Ltd.; Mirs Communications Ltd. (For Mirs, only the subscriber data is available.)
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS; SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY); SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR; NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %); DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR; DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR; VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR; VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH); MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %); SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE; SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE; YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR; REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR; REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD); ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD); DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD); VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD); SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD); EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD); CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Israel provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Israeli wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Israel include: Cellcom Israel Ltd., Pelephone, Partner Communications Co. Ltd., and Mirs Communications Ltd. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Subscriber growth in Israel is slowing down +2.9% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

Negative ARPU growth for Cellcom and Partner in the latest quarter -2.3% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

Minutes of Use per Subscriber declined across operators The industry average MOU/Sub growth of -5.3% in 2Q.2009

Strong EBITDA growth at Pelephone in the latest quarter +8.3% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total wireless subscribers in Israel to exceed 11 million in 2013

According to our forecasting model, the number of mobile subscriber accounts in Israel will increase from 9.13 million in 2008 to 11.07 million in 2013.
The largest operator will continue to be Cellcom; we forecast that Cellcom's subscriber base will increase from 3.19 million to 3.94 million over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
We expect that, by the end of 2013, Pelephone will have 3.24 million subscribers and Partner will have 3.49 million subscribers.

Cellcom's subscriber market share will be increasing over the next five years

We forecast that Cellcom's subscriber market share will increase from 34.9% in 2008 to 35.6% in 2013.
Although Partner will continue to be the second largest mobile operator in Israel after Cellcom, we expect that Partner's subscriber market share will decline slightly from 31.7% in 2008 to 31.5% in 2013.
On the other hand, Pelephone's share of subscribers will rise from 29.0% in 2008 to 29.3%, according to our model.

ARPU levels will be stabilizing from 2009 to 2013

We think that overall ARPU declines in Israel have stopped. Our model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU will change from ILS 140.36 in 2008 to ILS 142.48 in 2013.
We expect that monthly ARPUs at Cellcom, Pelephone, and Partner will be approximately ILS 144, ILS 131, and ILS 151 respectively in 2013.

We are forecasting improvements in EBITDA margins across operators

We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will improve from 35.0% in 2008 to 39.6% in 2013.
We are forecasting that Cellcom will be enjoying the highest EBITDA margin in the country at 40.1% in 2013 (compared to 37.5% in 2008).
Pelephone's EBITDA margin will also improve from 30.9% in 2008 to 39.9% in 2013, according to our model.

Please Note: This product is delivered as an excel file

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4Q09 Israel Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: The Israeli wireless market will have 11 million subscribers in 2013 with market share of Cellcom increasing to 35.6%

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Abstract