4Q09 Indonesia Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Indonesia will have 208.2 million mobile subscribers in 2013 with market share of Telkomsel rising to 55.0%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 17, 2009 - 118 Pages

Table of Contents

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast

PT Telekomunikasi Selular (Telkomsel)

PT Satelit Palapa Indonesia (Satelindo)

PT Excelcomindo Pratama Tbk (Excelcomindo)

Telkom Flexi

StarOne

Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011

PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS

SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)

SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR

NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR **

POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR **

POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) **

PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR **

PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR **

POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) **

PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR

MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)

DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR ***

MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR ***

DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) ***

MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR

VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR *

VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *

MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) *

MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) *

SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR

HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE

SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR **

SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR

SHARE OF GROSS ADDS BY OPERATOR **

SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR

HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE

YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR

REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)

EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) ***

CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) **

SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)

EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) ***

EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***

EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***

EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***

CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR **

CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR **

(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR **

EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR ***

REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)

DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) ***

VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) *

SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)

EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD) ***

CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) **

REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)

ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR)

DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR) ***

VOICE REVENUE/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (EUR) *

SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)

EBITDA BY OPERATOR (EUR) ***

CAPEX BY OPERATOR (EUR) **

* Not available for this country forecast

** Available only for Telkomsel and Satelindo

*** Available only for Telkomsel, Satelindo, and Excelcomindo

Abstract

• During the forecast period from 2008 to 2013, we expect the subscriber base in Indonesia to increase from 135.7 million in 2008 to 208.2 million in 2013.
• Telkomsel will continue to be the largest wireless operator in Indonesia. Given the latest quarter numbers, our model predicts that Telkomsel's subscriber base will increase from 61.9 million in 2008 to 114.5 million in 2013.
• Also, we expect that Satelindo will have 38.4 million subscribers and Excelcomindo will have 33.2 million subscribers by the end of 2013.

• Our model predicts that Telkomsel's market share (by subscribers) will increase from 45.6% in 2008 to 55.0% in 2013.
• We also expect that Telekom Flexi's share of total subscribers will increase from 7.0% in 2008 to 10.1% in 2013.
• In contrast, we forecast that Satelindo will see its market share decline from 27.0% to 18.4% and Excelcomindo's share will decline from 19.7% to 16.0% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.

• Our model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU will decline from IDR 46,733 in 2008 to IDR 34,485 in 2013.
• We expect that Telkomsel's ARPU level will remain the highest in the country although we expect that its monthly ARPU will still decline from IDR 59,124 in 2008 to IDR 40,335 in 2013.

• According to our model, Excelcomindo's EBITDA margin (EBITDA/reported revenue) will decrease from 52.6% in 2008 to 48.8% in 2013.
• We expect that EBITDA margins at Telkomsel and Satelindo will remain higher than Excelcomindo's at 66.8% and 50.5% respectively in 2013.

About MarketResearch.com
MarketResearch.com is an online aggregator selling over 300,000 market research reports, company profiles and country profiles from over 700 research firms. Our reports will provide you with the critical business and competitive intelligence you need for strategic planning and marketing research. Coverage includes the US, UK, Europe, Asia and global markets.