4Q09 Hong Kong Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Total wireless subscribers in Hong Kong will rise to 13.7 million in 2013 with Hutchison taking market share of 25.4% : Market Research Report

4Q09 Hong Kong Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Total wireless subscribers in Hong Kong will rise to 13.7 million in 2013 with Hutchison taking market share of 25.4%

Published by: IE Market Research Corp.

Published: Nov. 17, 2009 - 118 Pages

Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast: CSL Limited/New World Mobility Limited (Only the revenue/EBITDA/Capex data is available for this operator.); Hutchison Telecommunications HK Hld Ltd; SmarTone Telecommunications Holdings Ltd; PCCW Limited
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2013. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - June 2011: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS; SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY); SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR; NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR *; POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR **; POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) **; PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR **; PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR **; POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) **; PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR; MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %); DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR ***; MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR ***; DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) ***; MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR; VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR ****; VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) ****; MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) ****; MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) ****; SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR; HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE; SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR **; SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR; SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE; YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR; REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY); CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *****; SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY); EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR; CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *****; CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *****; (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *****; EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR; REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD); ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD); DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) ***; VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) ****; SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD); EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD); CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) *****; * Available only for Hutchison and SmarTone; ** Available only for Hutchison and PCCW; *** Available only for SmarTone; **** Available only for Hutchison; ***** Available only for CSL/New World, Hutchison, and SmarTone

Abstract

IEMR’s Mobile Operator Forecast on Hong Kong provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Hong Kong’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 2Q2011. Operators covered for Hong Kong include: CSL Limited/New World Mobility Limited, Hutchison Telecommunications HK Hld Ltd, SmarTone Telecommunications Holdings Ltd, and PCCW Limited. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

IEMR’s Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Executive Summary

Subscriber growth is slowing down in Hong Kong's mobile operator space +4.5% industry average subscriber growth in 2Q.2009

Negative ARPU growth continues in Hong Kong -1.8% industry average ARPU growth in 2Q.2009

EBITDA declining at CSL/New World, Hutchison and SmarTone -28.4% industry average EBITDA growth in 2Q.2009

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?

Total mobile subscriber accounts in Hong Kong to reach 13.7 million in 2013

Given the latest quarter numbers, our model forecasts that total wireless subscribers in Hong Kong will increase from 9.8 million in 2008 to 13.7 million in 2013.
We expect that Hutchison will have 3.49 million subscribers and PCCW will have 2.37 million subscribers by the end of 2013.

PCCW's market share will increase over the next five years

Our model predicts that PCCW's subscriber market share will increase from 13.4% in 2008 to 17.2% in 2013.
On the other hand, we expect that SmarTone will see its market share decline from 11.6% to 9.2%, and Hutchison's market share will decline from 27.6% to 25.4% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.

SmarTone's monthly ARPU will be declining from 2009 to 2013

We forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU level will decline from HK$ 160 in 2008 to HK$ 151 in 2013.
At the operator level, we are predicting that SmarTone will see its monthly ARPU decrease from HK$ 232 in 2008 to HK$ 229 in 2013, and PCCW's monthly ARPU will decrease from HK$ 122 in 2008 to HK$ 101 in 2013.

EBITDA margins will be improving at Hutchison over the next several years

We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will increase from 27.7% in 2008 to 28.5% in 2013.
According to our model, Hutchison's EBITDA margin will improve from 32.7% to 39.1% and CSL/New World's EBITDA margin will remain stable at 24.5% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.

Please Note: This product is delivered as an excel file

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4Q09 Hong Kong Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013: Total wireless subscribers in Hong Kong will rise to 13.7 million in 2013 with Hutchison taking market share of 25.4%

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Abstract